Invest 92L,West Atlantic

[Cyclone1]

I do NOT identify as a wish caster, but Come on, 92! Bring us some rain! I'd love a nice TS.

[windstorm99]

Continues to look poor this evening with convection almost non-exsistant.Might it flare up again it could but so far things look very disorganized.Adrian

[windycity]

Hi speical K!!! I see that your'e new on this board, welcome!! Everyone here is the best !! Glad to have you aboard!!

[CrazyC83]

I do NOT identify as a wish caster, but Come on, 92! Bring us some rain! I'd love a nice TS.

Be careful what you wish for! If the dry air disappears, the area is favorable for rapid deepening...

[gatorcane]

perhaps we may see the NHC say this at 10:30PM EST:

"cloudiness and showers associated with a tropical wave NE of the Leeward islands have diminished this evening. Although environmental conditions are becoming more favorable, development, if any, will be slow to occur as it moves westnorthwest at 15 to 20 mph

[Cyclone1]

I do NOT identify as a wish caster, but Come on, 92! Bring us some rain! I'd love a nice TS.

Be careful what you wish for! If the dry air disappears, the area is favorable for rapid deepening...

Nah, At most it'll be like the first half of Erin in 95.

[vaffie]

Computer models aren't good at all with a diffused area of showers and thunderstorms. Lets wait for the system to organize, develop an area of LP, and then start calling for a possible landfall point.

I agree that a westward to WNW motion is the most likely option, but before you have anything, don't start arguing where it will make landfall.

Those are not the 'models'. They are BAMs--they tell one where a low would go if the current synoptic situation remained exactly the same. They are not dynamic--they're merely photographs of the current weather pattern--the BAMS is for the surface winds, the BAMM is for the medium height winds, and the BAMD is for the upper level winds. They are only useful to see where the storm might go initially--for the first 12 hours, but after that--unless the pattern were to remain exactly the same, they're completely useless. The models are the GFS, CMC, Euro, UKMET, NAM, WRF, GFDL, etc.--they change over time--they are saying that this low would go into south Florida--that's what the NHC uses to conclude that that's where it's going. I hope this makes sense. This is not addressed to you, Hurakan, but to the general readers. There seems to be a lot of confusion in the early days of an invest when people see the initial BAM models and conclude anything from them.

[robbielyn]

Erin 2007 looked terrible and looked like a blob but it got its act together slowly and granted she wasn't pretty or strong ts but nonetheless she formed so don't write off felix yet. Give it a couple of days.

[fci]

I would be glad to get a wet Tropical Wave here.

That's all.

No TS certainly not a Cat 1

No school closings, no business closings, just a couple of days of soaking rains......

Then we can send it to my buddy in Alabama who is looking for the same thing.
Drought busters!!!!

[StrongWind]

Those are not the 'models'. They are BAMs--they tell one where a low would go if the current synoptic situation remained exactly the same. They are not dynamic--they're merely photographs of the current weather pattern--the BAMS is for the surface winds, the BAMM is for the medium height winds, and the BAMD is for the upper level winds. They are only useful to see where the storm might go initially--for the first 12 hours, but after that--unless the pattern were to remain exactly the same, they're completely useless.

Thanks Vaffie!

[HURAKAN]

Computer models aren't good at all with a diffused area of showers and thunderstorms. Lets wait for the system to organize, develop an area of LP, and then start calling for a possible landfall point.

I agree that a westward to WNW motion is the most likely option, but before you have anything, don't start arguing where it will make landfall.

Those are not the 'models'. They are BAMs--they tell one where a low would go if the current synoptic situation remained exactly the same. They are not dynamic--they're merely photographs of the current weather pattern--the BAMS is for the surface winds, the BAMM is for the medium height winds, and the BAMD is for the upper level winds. They are only useful to see where the storm might go initially--for the first 12 hours, but after that--unless the pattern were to remain exactly the same, they're completely useless. The models are the GFS, CMC, Euro, UKMET, NAM, WRF, GFDL, etc.--they change over time--they are saying that this low would go into south Florida--that's what the NHC uses to conclude that that's where it's going. I hope this makes sense. This is not addressed to you, Hurakan, but to the general readers. There seems to be a lot of confusion in the early days of an invest when people see the initial BAM models and conclude anything from them.

Thank you very much for clarifying.

[BocaGirl]

I would be glad to get a wet Tropical Wave here.

That's all.

No TS certainly not a Cat 1

No school closings, no business closings, just a couple of days of soaking rains......

Then we can send it to my buddy in Alabama who is looking for the same thing.
Drought busters!!!!

Right on! Let's hope the rain falls over Lake Okeechobee. We need the lake to fill up again.

BocaGirl
Barbara

[Kludge]

quote="Cyclone1"]

If Dr. Lyons were a hurricane model, he would be an outlier.

That is the funniest thing I've read today.

Hey, stop that! Dr. Lyons may take offense and start roaring. Get it? Dr. Lyons...roaring?!

Ba dum, pssh.[/quote]

And if you get eaten by the Lyon, your coroner will be the hurricane expert, Marshall (De)Seese. I dare you to stay awake for that eulogy. Between him and Barbi (Heather Tesch), you'll get all the McHurricane info you need on the McWeather Show.

/sarcasm off Ya' know, when Coleman first launched TWC, I was on cloud nine (no pun), thinking about the validity they would provide to my avocation. It's degraded to the point to where they're almost a weather tabloid...and I'm embarrassed for them; I now tell my friends to look to sites like the NHC and Storm2k if they want real information. When I win the lottery (any day now), I'm gonna launch a weather channel with just scrolling facts and maps...with no "personalities" (sorry, Abrahams, but you are fun to look at!!)

[DanKellFla]

Not no. No storms... School is starting.
Of course, that brings up the question, why start so early... But that is another thread altogether.

[gatorcane]

Yes I have to say I am disappointed with TWC and do not think they are the hurricane authority. They rarely ever give reasonings behind their forecast track or maps showing models, high pressure systems, and low pressure systems. They just say here it is and accept it...

[sunnyday]

Local north Palm Beach County met just said in the 10 p.m. forecast that this area will probably arrive here on Thursday and be just a rainy day.

[gatorcane]

Local north Palm Beach County met just said in the 10 p.m. forecast that this area will probably arrive here on Thursday and be just a rainy day.

Two problems with this met's forecast. First, the system will not be here by Thurs. That is far too quick. It will be here Sat or Sun. Second, it's easy to make this kind of statement when there is not much convection at the moment. But looking at water vapor imagery and other sat pics of this system, it does have the potential to flare up at any time. There is a large anticyclone that is in the process of forming over the system and its moving into a more favorable environment. It also has about 5 days over water so we should not write it off yet at all. Systems traversing the Bahamas and Gulf stream sometimes need only 48 hours to bomb out to major.

[shannon]

Sunnyday: I just saw it as well. We must always watch the same guy. I thought that was interesting as well.

[hurricanetrack]

Looks like the global models were on to something with 92L. Most showed it drying up and becoming nothing more than a few humps in the isobars and that is exactly what is happening. Sure it could come back, but dad gumb, that is one sad looking invest tonight.

You gotta give credit- when almost all of the major models show nothing, then nothing is usually what you get. That is, except for the times that you don't!

We'll see, but I think those AFDs that mention only a passing wave are probably going to be right on the money. For what ever reason, this system just ain't happening.

Next.....

[windstorm99]

Looks like the global models were on to something with 92L. Most showed it drying up and becoming nothing more than a few humps in the isobars and that is exactly what is happening. Sure it could come back, but dad gumb, that is one sad looking invest tonight.

You gotta give credit- when almost all of the major models show nothing, then nothing is usually what you get. That is, except for the times that you don't!

We'll see, but I think those AFDs that mention only a passing wave are probably going to be right on the money. For what ever reason, this system just ain't happening.

Next.....

Convection is all but gone......Development is not likely to me anytime soon.