Invest 92L,West Atlantic

[Cookiely]

From Tampa NWS
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE BAHAMAS THEN WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THE NIL POPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO ~20%
FROM SARASOTA SOUTH AFTER 06Z ON THURSDAY...THEN 20-40% FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON THURSDAY AS THE WAVE AFFECTS THE REGION.

[tailgater]

This morning you can detect at least a mid level circulation @ 25N 67W racing off to the west, Not a lot of moisture to work with and moving too fast but yet is still more organized than last evening. Still something to watch.
Also this wave has something going on south of Puetro Rico, that may have better conditions in it's future. Just another area to watch in the next couple of days.

[Normandy]

"5 am CDT

Wind continues... very violent, rapidly shifting direction - but it hasn't increased in a while - and I have a feeling it won't get worse. Streets are flooded - not sure if it's rain or maybe storm surge. Sounds are creepy and weird... special effects sounds. Not sure where we are going from here...

Dictated by Josh via telephone; posted by his friend Keith
"


"5:20 am CDT

Spoke too soon... highest winds so far - lots of trees going down - much heavier rain"



Eyewall looks to go right over Chetumal in then next hour....worse conditions yet to come.

[Normandy]

wrong topic

[tailgater]

This morning you can detect at least a mid level circulation @ 25N 67W racing off to the west, Not a lot of moisture to work with and moving too fast but yet is still more organized than last evening. Still something to watch.
Also this wave has something going on south of Puerto Rico, that may have better conditions in it's future. Just another area to watch in the next couple of days.

Puerto Rico Radar
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
And look due east of the southern tip of Fla.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

[ronjon]

Looks like a broad area of low pressure has formed at 25N-67W. Convection still disorganized but appears to slowly be wrapping around this feature. That ULL south of Hispanola is shearing the system pretty strongly now. I think as this system slowly moves away from the ULL, conditions will become more favorable in the Bahamas. The ULL seems to be moving W-SW and this circulation W-NW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

[HeeBGBz]

Looks like a broad area of low pressure has formed at 25N-67W. Convection still disorganized but appears to slowly be wrapping around this feature. That ULL south of Hispanola is shearing the system pretty strongly now. I think as this system slowly moves away from the ULL, conditions will become more favorable in the Bahamas. The ULL seems to be moving W-SW and this circulation W-NW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

I see what you all are talking about. It's just nw of the floater. Will they adjust that?

[drezee]

Morning visibles are showing that we have a player.

[tailgater]

Looks like a broad area of low pressure has formed at 25N-67W. Convection still disorganized but appears to slowly be wrapping around this feature. That ULL south of Hispanola is shearing the system pretty strongly now. I think as this system slowly moves away from the ULL, conditions will become more favorable in the Bahamas. The ULL seems to be moving W-SW and this circulation W-NW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

I see what you all are talking about. It's just nw of the floater. Will they adjust that?

I forgot about that floater, but yes I'd think they would . Try this one

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/203.jpg

[Blown Away]

Morning visibles are showing that we have a player.

I'd like to know where you see a player, there is very little convection.

[cycloneye]

Morning visibles are showing that we have a player.

Link and explain more,not only oneliner.

[HURAKAN]

A LLC seems to be developing way to the north of Puerto Rico moving westward. The system appears to be forming right under the convective thunderstorms.

http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rms ... PICAL.html

It's easier to see if you click in the loop of the GOES-EAST "Vis & IR Floater" in the right-hand side.

[boca]

The convection is at 26n and 65w and moving west.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/vis-l.jpg

[cycloneye]

A LLC seems to be developing way to the north of Puerto Rico moving westward. The system appears to be forming right under the convective thunderstorms.

http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rms ... PICAL.html

It's easier to see if you click in the loop of the GOES-EAST "Vis & IR Floater" in the right-hand side.

Thanks HURAKAN for bringing the explanation about what is going on.

[sunnyday]

Accuweather says today that dry air and African dust may inhibit development.

[Sabanic]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 AM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BREAKS DOWN LATE IN THE
WEEK AND WE SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION INCREASE GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE SLIPS EAST FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC UNDER THE WEAKENING RIDGE. TEMPS ALSO MODERATE BY LATE
WEEK AS WELL. /05


So I am speculating that if something did move westward into the gulf it may be drawn more northward than Dean. Correct?

[wxman57]

It's been drawn into a large upper low which will move west across the Gulf over the next 5-7 days. Development now looks unlikely.

[tailgater]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 AM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BREAKS DOWN LATE IN THE
WEEK AND WE SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION INCREASE GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE SLIPS EAST FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC UNDER THE WEAKENING RIDGE. TEMPS ALSO MODERATE BY LATE
WEEK AS WELL. /05


So I am speculating that if something did move westward into the gulf it may be drawn more northward than Dean. Correct?

I would think so too.but STRONGLY Disagree with your Avatar

[storms in NC]

From this moning vloop Don't think mush of it. There is a ULL over DR and the wave would have to move away from it to build. Jmo

[Steve H.]

Yeah, I wonder how bullish JB is today on development I think though, that this still has a chance at some development as it nears the Bahamas since shear will be low and it will be underneath a ridge. Other than this feature and Dean, naturally, there seems to be a period of quiet coming for this rest of the week in the Atlantic.