CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Dionne]

For me the most astonishing picture is of the house on the beach (with the two soldiers). I mean this is a concrete structure that has been lifted and pushed to the side. Just look at the loo's position....

Even reinforced concrete cannot withstand storm surge. We saw the same thing on the gulf coast with Katrina. Very interesting picture. Similar structural designs like this are used in the West Indies.....stacked block, poured solid with rebar.

[tolakram]

Looks like landfall.

Good riddance Dean.

[karenfromheaven]

is that 10 dead in jamaica or 10 total dead in all affected states

They were reporting 10 dead in Jamaica but having read 2 in most reports I would find that 10 to be overall (at least for now).

The Jamaica Star is reporting 3 dead:
http://www.jamaica-star.com/thestar/200 ... news5.html

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING DEAN
IS FINDING FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF CLOSE TO 100 KT...AND RECENT
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A CONTRACTION OF THE INNER CORE WIND
FIELD. A DROPSONDE ABOUT 20 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER RECENTLY
REPORTED A WL150...I.E. LOW-LEVEL...MEAN WIND OF 100 KT...
CORRESPONDING TO 85 KT AT THE SURFACE. ON THIS BASIS...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KT...MAKING DEAN A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE. FORTUNATELY...THESE CHANGES IN THE CORE STRUCTURE
ARE OCCURRING TOO CLOSE TO LANDFALL TO ALLOW FOR MUCH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME...285/16. THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING...AND DEAN IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR TUXPAN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 20.6N 96.3W 85 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 21.2N 98.6W 65 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 23/1200Z 21.3N 101.6W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI

_______________________________________________

Short discussion. I guess since it's (or was) close to landfall and it was discussion #38, there's not much to say that hasn't been said already!!!

[karenfromheaven]

Hopefully someone will run across good news and post it here. Keeping a prayer going until then....

THEY MADE IT THROUGH!!

See story in the Jamaica Gleaner:

http://www.jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/ ... lead9.html

[HURAKAN]

The 9th strongest of all time says bye.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Wow, 100 mph. Seems like Dean is trying to make the most of it's time over water. Hopefully everyone on the coast of Mexico is prepared.

[Cozumel]

As many of you have already posted, life in Cozumel and Cancun is back to normal. Many residents have been assisting in relief efforts for the Mayan zone. And yes, from Puerto Aventuras to the southern parts of the state things are quite bad. In Chetumal the water flooded at least five blocks from the bay area inland. Cozumel lost power during the first hours of Tuesday and there's a lot of sand on the roads on other side of the Island, some roads did not do so well; there wasn't too much rain as the winds were quite strong. Many residents in Cozumel will leave their homes "boarded-up" and "just in case".

Como muchos de ustedes ya han mencionado, la vida en Cozumel y Cancun regreso a la normalidad. Muchos residentes han colaborado con los esfuerzos de ayuda hacia la zona maya. Y si, a partir de Puerto Aventuras hacia el sur del estado, las cosas estan un poco mal. En Chetumal el agua inundo cinco cuadras desde la bahia hacia la ciudad. Cozumel perdio la energia electrica durante las primeras horas del martes y hay mucha area sobre la carretera del otro lado de la Isla, algunos pedazos de la carretera no les fue muy bien; no hubo mucha lluvia gracias a los fuertes vientos. Muchos residentes en Cozumel dejaran las tablas colocadas en sus casas "por si algo sucede"

[x-y-no]

Hopefully someone will run across good news and post it here. Keeping a prayer going until then....

THEY MADE IT THROUGH!!

See story in the Jamaica Gleaner:

http://www.jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/ ... lead9.html

Wow ... great news!

[Ptarmigan]

Adios Dean.

[msbee]

Hopefully someone will run across good news and post it here. Keeping a prayer going until then....

THEY MADE IT THROUGH!!

See story in the Jamaica Gleaner:

http://www.jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/ ... lead9.html

Wow ... great news!

fabulous!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Adios Dean.

The GFS shows the 700 mb vorticity making ot over the mountains, regaining some strength, and passing near Cabo San Lucas.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1150 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN MADE LANDFALL IN MEXICO NEAR THE TOWN
OF TECOLUTLA...JUST EAST OF GUTIERREZ ZAMORA AND ABOUT 40 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN AT ABOUT 1130 AM CDT...1630 UTC. THE
ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF DEAN AT LANDFALL WAS 100 MPH...160
KPH....CATEGORY TWO ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

[HURAKAN]

Based on the recount by the NHC, this picture was taken 2 minutes after landfall.

[HURAKAN]

...Dean inland over Mexico and beginning to weaken...


a Hurricane Warning remains in effect along the Gulf Coast of Mexico
from Coatzacoalcos northward to La Cruz.


A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the Gulf Coast of
Mexico from north of La Cruz to Bahia Algodones.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 100 PM CDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located
inland near latitude 20.5 north...longitude 97.3 west or very near
poza rica Mexico.


Dean is moving toward the west near 19 mph...31 km/hr...and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight.


Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph...140 km/hr...
with higher gusts. Dean is now a category one hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. Continued weakening is expected until Dean
dissipates over the mountains of central Mexico tonight.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 275
miles...445 km...mainly to the northeast of the center.


The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb...29.00 inches.


Storm surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels is
possible...along with large and dangerous battering waves...near and
to the north of where the center made landfall.


Dean is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches
over parts of southern and central Mexico...with maximum amounts of
up to 20 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

Repeating the 100 PM CDT position...20.5 N...97.3 W. Movement
toward...west near 19 mph. Maximum sustained winds...85 mph.
Minimum central pressure...982 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
400 PM CDT.


$$
Forecaster Franklin/Mainelli

[Lost in Belize]

Hi All,
Finally got back to a computer. I spent the storm in the western part of Belize in the Cayo Districts. This is high mountainous terrain, and we had little or no effect other than some gusts up to 30-40mph and a bit of rain. Belize City sustained no damage whatsoever, even though it was pretty much evacuated. I took a boat trip to Ambergris Caye later yesterday afternoon. We were the only boat on the water, as the return to the town had not yet started. The island was mostly out of power, but power was restored by 6:30 pm to most areas. There is little sign of major damage, except to docks, most of which are left crooked with missing planks and shaky pilings. There is some beach erosion evident along the main seawall with huge gaping holes where sand used to be. Since about 9000 of the 12000 residents were evacuated, the island seemed deserted, although a few grocery stores were open. The good news is the the tourism infrastructure on teh island remains intact, and none of the hotels seem to have sustained any significant damage.

Reports from Northern Belize are not as encouraging. The Papaya Industry, which is owned by Brooks Tropical, and represents the largest importer of papayas into the US and Canada and a very large employer in Northern Belize lost a large percentage of their crops. Company officials are assessing the damage, and the silver lining is that Brooks, headquartered in Homestead, FL, is no stranger to hurricane recovery, having lost and recovered a major production of Avocados after Hurricane Andrew in 1992.

Corozal Town lost a few houses, several roofs, but thankfully no loss of life. Power is still down in the area, but damage is a lot less than was expected in light of a Cat 5 storm.

Belize

[HURAKAN]

Dean: "Damn it, land again. I should've bough a GPS or at least a compass."

[msbee]

I am os happy to read your post and see that Belize came through relatively OK>
Belize is one of my favorite places in the whole world.

[cycloneye]

I am also happy to see that Belize did not suffer too much.

Belice salio relativamente bien de esto.Claro siempre hubo daños pero no perdida de vidas.

[cycloneye]

089
WTNT34 KNHC 221753
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 38A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
100 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

...DEAN INLAND OVER MEXICO AND BEGINNING TO WEAKEN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM COATZACOALCOS NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM NORTH OF LA CRUZ TO BAHIA ALGODONES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST OR VERY NEAR
POZA RICA MEXICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 19 MPH...31 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL DEAN
DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MADE LANDFALL.

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...20.5 N...97.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 19 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI