Tropical Storm FITOW (WPAC): Disc, Analysis & Imagery

[Chacor]

1. TROPICAL STORM 10W WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 21.1N 155.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 155.9E

[HURAKAN]

[P.K.]

Did the JMA change their advisory format?

Looks like they have translated the Japanese advisories into English for the first time. Great to see the winds quoted in m/s first now.

T2.5 at 0600 from RSMC Tokyo.

[RattleMan]

Did the JMA change their advisory format?

Yeah. You can still see the old advisory format here:

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt ... .rjtd..txt

[P.K.]

Upgraded to 0709.

WTPQ20 RJTD 290600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0709 FITOW (0709) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290600UTC 21.7N 156.1E FAIR
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 40NM
FORECAST
24HF 300600UTC 24.5N 156.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 310600UTC 27.5N 154.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 010600UTC 29.1N 151.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

[P.K.]

This new format doesn't copy across to this forum very well without a Rich Text editor sadly.

<Analyses at 29/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N21°40'(21.7°)
E156°05'(156.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 70km(40NM)
<Forecast for 30/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N24°30'(24.5°)
E156°10'(156.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 150km(80NM)
<Forecast for 31/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°30'(27.5°)
E154°25'(154.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 280km(150NM)
Storm warning area Wide 370km(200NM)
<Forecast for 01/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N29°05'(29.1°)
E151°05'(151.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area Wide 520km(280NM)

[Chacor]

Should be clarified "storm warning" refers to area of 50 kt winds or more, and not storm warning in the American sense.

[bob rulz]

Wow, talk about rapid intensification! The NRL site now has it at 50kt! It's starting to look pretty impressive, with nice banding features showing up.

[HURAKAN]

Nicely-looking developing storm:

[P.K.]

Up to T3.5 at 1200 so STS status isn't far off.

[Chacor]

500
TPPN10 PGTW 291208

A. TROPICAL STORM 10W (FITOW)

B. 29/1130Z

C. 22.5N/9

D. 156.6E/8

E. FOUR/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS (29/1130Z)

G. IR/EIR LLCC

13A/PBO TCB/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF 1.00 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS 3.5. DBO DT. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS 3.0.

ROACH

[Chacor]

WTJP21 RJTD 291200
WARNING 291200.
WARNING VALID 301200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0709 FITOW (0709) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM
985 HPA
AT 22.4N 156.8E EASTSOUTHEAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHEAST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 25.1N 156.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 27.6N 154.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 29.0N 150.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[senorpepr]

Looks like a potential threat to Japan in the next week or so. It'll be interesting to see if it recurves by then.

[P.K.]

Last Dvorak estimate was a T4.0.

WTPQ20 RJTD 291800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0709 FITOW (0709)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291800UTC 23.4N 156.9E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 70NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 301800UTC 26.1N 156.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 311800UTC 28.1N 153.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 011800UTC 29.0N 149.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[cycloneye]

SUBJ: TYPHOON 10W (FITOW) WARNING NR 005
WTPN31 PGTW 292100
1. TYPHOON 10W (FITOW) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 10W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 23.4N 156.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N 156.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 25.1N 156.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 26.4N 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 27.6N 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 28.5N 152.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 29.2N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 29.7N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 30.3N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 23.8N 156.8E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.
//


A question to those who know a lot about the WPAC basin.Is this already a typhoon as JTWC says or still is at severe Tropical Storm status as JMA says?

[HURAKAN]

JMA is the official word in the WPAC, and therefore, this is STS Fitow.

[HURAKAN]

looking really good:

[P.K.]

A question to those who know a lot about the WPAC basin.Is this already a typhoon as JTWC says or still is at severe Tropical Storm status as JMA says?

As with all systems warned by the JTWC the status given by them is not official. This is still a STS until RSMC Tokyo say otherwise.

[cycloneye]

Ok thanks guys.

[CrazyC83]

JTWC is going gung-ho on this! Predicting a super typhoon!