Tropical Depression GIL (EPAC): Disc, Analysis & Imagery

[Chacor]

Finally something in the EPac to track. Partially over western Mexico and very near the Gulf of California. Next question is where it will go...

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 281145
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1145 UTC TUE AUG 28 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942007) 20070828 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070828 0600 070828 1800 070829 0600 070829 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 105.2W 18.6N 105.9W 19.2N 107.0W 20.0N 108.9W
BAMD 17.6N 105.2W 18.3N 107.4W 19.0N 109.6W 19.5N 112.2W
BAMM 17.6N 105.2W 18.7N 106.7W 19.5N 108.1W 20.0N 110.1W
LBAR 17.6N 105.2W 18.5N 107.1W 19.5N 109.6W 20.5N 112.3W
SHIP 20KTS 28KTS 34KTS 40KTS
DSHP 20KTS 28KTS 34KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070830 0600 070831 0600 070901 0600 070902 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.7N 111.0W 21.8N 115.7W 22.1N 120.9W 22.0N 125.9W
BAMD 19.9N 115.0W 20.3N 121.3W 20.4N 127.8W 20.5N 133.4W
BAMM 20.6N 112.4W 21.3N 117.7W 21.5N 123.4W 21.6N 128.6W
LBAR 21.5N 115.1W 23.5N 121.1W 25.2N 126.2W 21.8N 128.5W
SHIP 43KTS 34KTS 26KTS 25KTS
DSHP 43KTS 34KTS 26KTS 25KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 105.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 17.0N LONM12 = 103.5W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 16.4N LONM24 = 101.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Chacor]

Another boring tropical storm being progged then it seems.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 281244
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1244 UTC TUE AUG 28 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942007) 20070828 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070828 1200 070829 0000 070829 1200 070830 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.5N 105.5W 18.5N 106.4W 19.2N 107.9W 20.0N 109.9W
BAMD 17.5N 105.5W 18.4N 107.6W 19.0N 109.8W 19.6N 112.5W
BAMM 17.5N 105.5W 18.8N 106.8W 19.5N 108.4W 20.2N 110.6W
LBAR 17.5N 105.5W 18.1N 107.5W 19.1N 109.8W 20.0N 112.6W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 37KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 37KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070830 1200 070831 1200 070901 1200 070902 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.6N 112.1W 21.5N 116.7W 21.7N 121.3W 21.3N 125.7W
BAMD 20.0N 115.4W 20.4N 121.8W 20.7N 127.9W 21.2N 132.9W
BAMM 20.7N 113.2W 21.2N 118.4W 21.0N 123.6W 20.7N 128.2W
LBAR 20.9N 115.4W 22.8N 121.3W 24.8N 126.4W 21.5N 129.2W
SHIP 44KTS 34KTS 28KTS 28KTS
DSHP 44KTS 34KTS 28KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.5N LONCUR = 105.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 17.3N LONM12 = 104.4W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 16.7N LONM24 = 102.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Plenty of deep convection with 94E.

[Epsilon_Fan]

Seems like a better target is further south off of Northern Central America...

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281611
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT TUE AUG 28 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR
MANZANILLO MEXICO SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 281845
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1845 UTC TUE AUG 28 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942007) 20070828 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070828 1800 070829 0600 070829 1800 070830 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.7N 105.6W 18.9N 106.6W 19.8N 108.4W 20.9N 110.5W
BAMD 17.7N 105.6W 18.7N 107.5W 19.7N 109.8W 20.5N 112.5W
BAMM 17.7N 105.6W 19.1N 106.8W 20.2N 108.7W 21.2N 111.1W
LBAR 17.7N 105.6W 18.4N 107.1W 19.3N 109.4W 20.4N 112.1W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 40KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 40KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070830 1800 070831 1800 070901 1800 070902 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.7N 112.8W 22.4N 117.8W 22.5N 122.7W 22.1N 127.4W
BAMD 21.0N 115.5W 21.3N 122.0W 21.4N 127.6W 21.4N 132.5W
BAMM 22.0N 113.8W 22.5N 119.5W 22.6N 124.7W 22.5N 129.5W
LBAR 21.3N 114.9W 23.5N 121.0W 25.4N 125.9W 24.1N 128.4W
SHIP 44KTS 33KTS 23KTS 21KTS
DSHP 44KTS 33KTS 23KTS 21KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.7N LONCUR = 105.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 17.4N LONM12 = 104.7W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 17.0N LONM24 = 103.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[RL3AO]

Blue --> Yellow

[Cyclenall]

Aside from Hurricane Flossie, this Epac season has been total trash. It's the opposite of the 2006, no doubt about it. Just take a look at the shear in the Epac, looks like March. If this invest does get going, it will be another weak TS which is boring. La Nina is coming...

[cycloneye]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
MANZANILLO WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

4 PM PDT TWO

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 290044
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0044 UTC WED AUG 29 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942007) 20070829 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070829 0000 070829 1200 070830 0000 070830 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.6N 107.5W 19.4N 108.8W 20.3N 110.7W 21.1N 112.8W
BAMD 18.6N 107.5W 19.4N 109.5W 20.3N 111.9W 20.9N 114.8W
BAMM 18.6N 107.5W 19.6N 108.9W 20.6N 111.1W 21.3N 113.6W
LBAR 18.6N 107.5W 19.1N 109.5W 20.1N 112.0W 21.1N 114.8W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070831 0000 070901 0000 070902 0000 070903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.7N 115.1W 22.1N 120.0W 22.1N 124.8W 21.9N 129.7W
BAMD 21.3N 117.8W 21.7N 124.2W 22.0N 129.9W 22.3N 135.3W
BAMM 22.0N 116.4W 22.6N 122.3W 23.0N 127.7W 23.2N 133.1W
LBAR 22.1N 117.7W 24.0N 123.4W 26.6N 128.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 41KTS 28KTS 17KTS 16KTS
DSHP 41KTS 28KTS 17KTS 16KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.6N LONCUR = 107.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 18.4N LONM12 = 106.0W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 18.0N LONM24 = 104.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[RL3AO]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR
TOMORROW AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

[Chacor]

WTPN21 PHNC 290630
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.5N 106.6W TO 19.4N 111.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 290000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.6N 107.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 290124Z SSMI
MICROWAVE PASS INDICATE INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT SHOWS
THE LLCC IS STILL SOMEWHAT ELONGATED, BUT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
ARE NOW 15-20 KTS. THE DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING TOWARD A REGION
OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WHICH FAVORS CONTINUED DEEPEN-
ING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS. MINI-
MUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 300630Z.//

NNNN

[RL3AO]

10E.NONAME NRL.

[Chacor]

231
WTPZ45 KNHC 291441
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007
800 AM PDT WED AUG 29 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH IMPRESSIVE CURVED
BANDING FEATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A DVORAK
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION OF 2.0...30 KT...WAS RECEIVED FROM TAFB
AND SHIP ZQCP3 ALSO REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1002.6 MB. DATA FROM THE
MEXICAN NAVY SITE AT SOCORRO ISLAND HELPED TO DETERMINE THE
LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. BASED ON ALL OF THE DATA...THIS
SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH 30 KT WINDS.
ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
STRENGTHENING WITH MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...WE EXPECT THE SYSTEM
TO BRIEFLY REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD REACH COOLER WATERS AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE
SHIPS MODEL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8. GLOBAL MODELS BUILD A LARGE
MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE SYSTEM TO
MOVE MORE TO THE WEST WITH TIME AWAY FROM MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS MODEL AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
CONSENSUS MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 19.4N 109.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 19.8N 110.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 20.2N 112.8W 40 KT
36HR VT 31/0000Z 20.5N 115.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 31/1200Z 20.5N 117.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 20.0N 121.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$

[CrazyC83]

Looks like they could have easily went right ahead with Tropical Storm Gil. At least this has a short life ahead...

[NetZeroZeus]

This piece of crap gave me 7 more inches of rain last night!

[punkyg]

Which direction is this TD moving?

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

NRL changed header to Tropical Storm Gil,but as we do always,we wait for the official word from NHC to then change the title of thread.