Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[pojo]

Foreign Clearance Guides give us permission per US Diplomacy or Taskings... some countries only approve overfly/landings per tasking requirements. Other Countries in the CARIB WILL NOT allow US aircraft into their airspace... ie. Cuba, Venezuela, Honduras

[TheEuropean]

Mr. European- as a European met, do you get to see all the output of the ECMWF, or just the little bit they offer for free at the ECMWF.int web site?

I can see more but havn't seen them this evening yet.

[Sanibel]

System is synoptically sheared from north side by ridge. Explains flattened half look. Should develop in Caribbean.

[wxman57]

18Z model guidance still has the name "Invest" as opposed to "Six", but this is surely a TD. Here's the latest surface analysis with satellite. The center at 18Z was near 11.8N/58.1W according to that NW wind report.

[pojo]

When did Cuba start allowing overflights by the USAFR. I'd heard years ago they'd only allow the NOAA WP-3D to enter their airspace, but that doesn't seem to be the case anymore.


IIRC, Venezuela wouldn't allow a HH flight to enter their airspace for Ivan.

We cannot go into Cuban Airspace.

[HURAKAN]

Everyone benefits from the RECON missions which should be enough for others countries to offer their bases.

Don't need them. Keesler AFB and St. Croix cover everywhere they need to go.

And the hunters won't even get close to Venezuelan airspace.

That's not true because if you have a system like 94L, it would be better to depart from Barbados or Trinidad and Tobago. If you have a system near Bermuda it would be better to depart from Bermuda. If you have a system in the south Caribbean, it would be better to depart from a close-by island or country. The same for a system near Mexico in the EPAC or in the BOC.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 311843
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1843 UTC FRI AUG 31 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20070831 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070831 1800 070901 0600 070901 1800 070902 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.6N 57.9W 12.2N 60.8W 13.1N 63.7W 13.7N 66.5W
BAMD 11.6N 57.9W 12.1N 61.2W 12.7N 64.7W 13.4N 68.2W
BAMM 11.6N 57.9W 12.0N 61.2W 12.8N 64.6W 13.5N 68.0W
LBAR 11.6N 57.9W 12.0N 61.0W 12.4N 64.7W 13.1N 68.6W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070902 1800 070903 1800 070904 1800 070905 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.7N 69.7W 16.2N 76.0W 17.2N 81.6W 18.5N 86.5W
BAMD 14.1N 71.8W 14.8N 78.5W 15.2N 83.7W 16.1N 87.8W
BAMM 14.4N 71.6W 15.4N 78.4W 16.2N 84.2W 17.4N 89.0W
LBAR 13.9N 72.3W 15.2N 79.2W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 55KTS 72KTS 86KTS 95KTS
DSHP 55KTS 72KTS 58KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.6N LONCUR = 57.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 11.3N LONM12 = 55.4W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.4N LONM24 = 52.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Still invest.

[pojo]

Everyone benefits from the RECON missions which should be enough for others countries to offer their bases.

Don't need them. Keesler AFB and St. Croix cover everywhere they need to go.

And the hunters won't even get close to Venezuelan airspace.

That's not true because if you have a system like 94L, it would be better to depart from Barbados or Trinidad and Tobago. If you have a system near Bermuda it would be better to depart from Bermuda. If you have a system in the south Caribbean, it would be better to depart from a close-by island or country. The same for a system near Mexico in the EPAC or in the BOC.

There are certain bases that we can go to.... and we have to apply for a PPR number to land on Non-AFRC bases

As for international countries... we CANNOT spare an aircraft in a foreign country... because of maintenance/crew chief requirements. St. Croix has everything that we need... why go somewhere else.

[Brent]

Why is it still an invest? It is obviously a TD. Ugh.

[CrazyC83]

Everyone benefits from the RECON missions which should be enough for others countries to offer their bases.

Don't need them. Keesler AFB and St. Croix cover everywhere they need to go.

And the hunters won't even get close to Venezuelan airspace.

That's not true because if you have a system like 94L, it would be better to depart from Barbados or Trinidad and Tobago. If you have a system near Bermuda it would be better to depart from Bermuda. If you have a system in the south Caribbean, it would be better to depart from a close-by island or country. The same for a system near Mexico in the EPAC or in the BOC.

Mexico is close enough to Biloxi for a fairly quick flight.

[Sanibel]

Current track angle is important to figure for downrange.

[Ed Mahmoud]

When did Cuba start allowing overflights by the USAFR. I'd heard years ago they'd only allow the NOAA WP-3D to enter their airspace, but that doesn't seem to be the case anymore.


IIRC, Venezuela wouldn't allow a HH flight to enter their airspace for Ivan.

We cannot go into Cuban Airspace.

I thought some of the HDOBs from Charley were in Cuban airspace, but I could be wrong

SXXX50 KNHC 130544
AF980 0803A CHARLEY HDOB 16
0534.2310N 08256W 03088 0078 068 045 042 042 046 03182 0000000000
0535 2309N 08255W 03084 0070 067 047 042 042 047 03170 0000000000
0535.2307N 08253W 03072 0061 062 048 048 048 048 03150 0000000000
0536 2306N 08253W 03062 0050 056 047 064 064 047 03128 0000000000
0536.2305N 08252W 03069 0040 056 052 056 056 057 03125 0000000000
0537 2303N 08250W 03079 0026 055 057 052 052 059 03121 0000000000
0537.2302N 08250W 03078 0002 050 060 058 058 063 03096 0000000000
0538 2300N 08249W 03081 5043 048 071 060 060 079 03054 0000000000
0538.2259N 08247W 03079 5034 046 077 052 052 085 03061 0000000000
0539 2259N 08246W 03092 5083 056 067 052 052 072 03025 0000000000
0539.2259N 08244W 03093 5172 059 062 042 042 066 02938 0000000000
0540 2259N 08243W 03086 5187 069 041 066 066 049 02915 0000000000
0540.2259N 08241W 03069 5245 074 024 092 084 032 02839 0000000000
0541 2258N 08240W 03058 5236 090 013 108 106 017 02838 0000000000
0541.2259N 08238W 03065 5238 126 023 108 106 033 02843 0000000000
0542 2259N 08237W 03079 5214 135 052 076 076 062 02881 0000000000
0542.2301N 08235W 03085 5157 140 074 050 050 079 02944 0000000000
0543 2302N 08234W 03077 5093 144 094 040 040 102 02999 0000000000
0543.2304N 08232W 03072 5049 145 098 038 038 100 03038 0000000000
0544 2305N 08231W 03086 5022 142 098 048 048 100 03080 0000000000

[JTD]

Why is it still an invest? It is obviously a TD. Ugh.

Recon found a very broad circulation and the center was dificult to locate.

[storms in NC]

Why is it still an invest? It is obviously a TD. Ugh.

Recon found a very broad circulation and the center was dificult to locate.

Could it be cause it is in forming mode? or relocating it's center?

[Sanibel]

94L has a wedge shape like a spear head pointing WNW.

[Dick Pache]

Foreign Clearance Guides give us permission per US Diplomacy or Taskings... some countries only approve overfly/landings per tasking requirements. Other Countries in the CARIB WILL NOT allow US aircraft into their airspace... ie. Cuba, Venezuela, Honduras

Honduras has a US Base there, Soto Cano,(also called Palma Rola) lots of US aircraft are there
They do a lot of Medical missions in Central America

[pojo]

We cannot go into Cuban Airspace.

I thought some of the HDOBs from Charley were in Cuban airspace, but I could be wrong

SXXX50 KNHC 130544
AF980 0803A CHARLEY HDOB 16
0534.2310N 08256W 03088 0078 068 045 042 042 046 03182 0000000000
0535 2309N 08255W 03084 0070 067 047 042 042 047 03170 0000000000
0535.2307N 08253W 03072 0061 062 048 048 048 048 03150 0000000000
0536 2306N 08253W 03062 0050 056 047 064 064 047 03128 0000000000
0536.2305N 08252W 03069 0040 056 052 056 056 057 03125 0000000000
0537 2303N 08250W 03079 0026 055 057 052 052 059 03121 0000000000
0537.2302N 08250W 03078 0002 050 060 058 058 063 03096 0000000000
0538 2300N 08249W 03081 5043 048 071 060 060 079 03054 0000000000
0538.2259N 08247W 03079 5034 046 077 052 052 085 03061 0000000000
0539 2259N 08246W 03092 5083 056 067 052 052 072 03025 0000000000
0539.2259N 08244W 03093 5172 059 062 042 042 066 02938 0000000000
0540 2259N 08243W 03086 5187 069 041 066 066 049 02915 0000000000
0540.2259N 08241W 03069 5245 074 024 092 084 032 02839 0000000000
0541 2258N 08240W 03058 5236 090 013 108 106 017 02838 0000000000
0541.2259N 08238W 03065 5238 126 023 108 106 033 02843 0000000000
0542 2259N 08237W 03079 5214 135 052 076 076 062 02881 0000000000
0542.2301N 08235W 03085 5157 140 074 050 050 079 02944 0000000000
0543 2302N 08234W 03077 5093 144 094 040 040 102 02999 0000000000
0543.2304N 08232W 03072 5049 145 098 038 038 100 03038 0000000000
0544 2305N 08231W 03086 5022 142 098 048 048 100 03080 0000000000

the US Gov't had to pull teeth to get the dip clearance to fly into Cuban Airspace.

[pojo]

Foreign Clearance Guides give us permission per US Diplomacy or Taskings... some countries only approve overfly/landings per tasking requirements. Other Countries in the CARIB WILL NOT allow US aircraft into their airspace... ie. Cuba, Venezuela, Honduras

Honduras has a US Base there, Soto Cano,(also called Palma Rola) lots of US aircraft are there
They do a lot of Medical missions in Central America

Again here for Honduras... I looked at the FCG before I left work today... Honduras will not allow us to fly into their airspace for tasking/landing/training.... again here... for tasking reasons, we have to pull teeth.

[AtlanticWind]

Maybe the NHC is holding off making 94l aTD to make the folks at Accuwether sweat

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hmmm, no matter how much I disliked the Yanquis, I'd still like the most timely information on any storm threatening my country.


But then I'm not the leader of any country.