Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[Ed Mahmoud]

Maybe the NHC is holding off making 94l aTD to make the folks at Accuwether sweat

LOL

[Hello32020]

Maybe the NHC is holding off making 94l aTD to make the folks at Accuwether sweat

LOL

Why would they need to that pressure is obviously off a lot

[Sanibel]

WNW wedge shape under the ridge.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Maybe the NHC is holding off making 94l aTD to make the folks at Accuwether sweat

LOL

Why would they need to that pressure is obviously off a lot

Holy Smokes- that 988 mb graphic is still up!

http://pro.accuweather.com/adcbin/profe ... de=uhad6_1

[tolakram]

The special tropical disturbance statement just vanished from the NHC website. I'm voting for a new statement or a TD to be named shortly.

[Coredesat]

Holy Smokes- that 988 mb graphic is still up!

http://pro.accuweather.com/adcbin/profe ... de=uhad6_1

They're reporting a bunch of false information right now - that this has been TD6, and that Fitow has 95 kt winds (which it certainly does not, the JTWC doesn't even say that).

[bvigal]

They removed the formation alert right after recon got there, so I still think they will issue an advisory today.

[Ed Mahmoud]

vortex message- its a TD

31/19:05:30Z
B. 11 deg 34 min N
058 deg 13 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 30 kt
E. 148 deg 027 nm
F. 216 deg 025 kt
G. 148 deg 025 nm
H. EXTRAP 1009 mb
I. 21 C/ 396 m
J. 23 C/ 392 m
K. 22 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 01345/01
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF305 01FFA INVEST OB 14
MAX FL WIND 25 KT SE QUAD 18:57:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

[JTD]

Still there. Never mind.

[bvigal]

Holy Smokes- that 988 mb graphic is still up!
http://pro.accuweather.com/adcbin/profe ... de=uhad6_1

This wins an award for irresponsibility. We should derive some kind of reward for this, and give it out once a month, or once per storm.
The Mudbath Award - For Stupidity In Weather Broadcasting

[Coredesat]

The VDM doesn't say it's a TD, the VDM says it has a center with a pressure of 1009 hPa and estimated winds of 30 kt. The NHC will look at the VDM and choose whether to upgrade at 5 PM. They may not as, despite the estimate, no surface winds higher than 22.5 kt were found.

[Category 5]

I heard the same, looks like they might upgrade this.

We're discussing it in chat, feel free to join us.

[skysummit]

Still nothing on the ftp site.

[bvigal]

The VDM doesn't say it's a TD, the VDM says it has a center with a pressure of 1009 hPa and estimated winds of 30 kt. The NHC will look at the VDM and choose whether to upgrade at 5 PM. They may not as, despite the estimate, no surface winds higher than 22.5 kt were found.

That seems, excuse me, absolutely impossible, unless nothing was dropped measured in any of the squalls evident by satellite photos. Where does that 22.5 come from?

[Coredesat]

The VDM doesn't say it's a TD, the VDM says it has a center with a pressure of 1009 hPa and estimated winds of 30 kt. The NHC will look at the VDM and choose whether to upgrade at 5 PM. They may not as, despite the estimate, no surface winds higher than 22.5 kt were found.

That seems, excuse me, absolutely impossible, unless nothing was dropped measured in any of the squalls evident by satellite photos. Where does that 22.5 come from?

25 kt FL = 22.5 kt surface. There were no SFMR measurements on this mission.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Quittin time, early on a 3 day weekend. This is more model related, but new Euro sees super 500 mb ridge steering future Felix straight to Belize.




BTW, I wasn't implying that the flight met who composes the VDM is responsible for officially declaring a system a TD. Just saying a 30 knot system with a 1009 mb pressure is usally considered to be such. I know the NHC does all the official declaring (and maybe AccuWeather ) for the Atlantic Basin.


Later,

[storms in NC]

The VDM doesn't say it's a TD, the VDM says it has a center with a pressure of 1009 hPa and estimated winds of 30 kt. The NHC will look at the VDM and choose whether to upgrade at 5 PM. They may not as, despite the estimate, no surface winds higher than 22.5 kt were found.

You can see below that they did fine 30KT winds

31/19:05:30Z
B. 11 deg 34 min N
058 deg 13 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 30 kt
E. 148 deg 027 nm
F. 216 deg 025 kt
G. 148 deg 025 nm
H. EXTRAP 1009 mb
I. 21 C/ 396 m
J. 23 C/ 392 m
K. 22 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 01345/01
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF305 01FFA INVEST OB 14
MAX FL WIND 25 KT SE QUAD 18:57:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

[Derek Ortt]

25KT equals 20 at the surface, not 22.5

[Coredesat]

The VDM doesn't say it's a TD, the VDM says it has a center with a pressure of 1009 hPa and estimated winds of 30 kt. The NHC will look at the VDM and choose whether to upgrade at 5 PM. They may not as, despite the estimate, no surface winds higher than 20 kt were found.

You can see below that they did fine 30KT winds
D. 30 kt

That is an estimate that isn't based on any measured wind data.

25KT equals 20 at the surface, not 22.5

Thanks, figured I was using the wrong conversion factor.

[bvigal]

Not only that, but sometimes winds at surface are stronger than at flight level.