Invest 95L off SC/GA coast:=Gone from NRL

[windstorm99]

Post away....

[Chacor]

SHIPS 12Z output...

Code: Select all

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    29    32    36    43    52    59    64    65    64    61    56
V (KT) LAND       25    27    29    32    36    43    52    59    64    65    64    61    56
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    27    28    30    34    39    46    53    57    57    55    51

SHEAR (KTS)       14    11    12    15    13    10     7    11    20    26    31    29    31
SHEAR DIR        336   335   323   339   355   325   331   274   261   255   250   248   252
SST (C)         29.2  29.2  29.2  29.2  29.2  29.2  29.1  29.1  28.9  28.5  28.1  27.7  27.6
POT. INT. (KT)   153   153   153   153   152   150   150   152   149   144   138   133   131
ADJ. POT. INT.   128   128   128   127   126   122   124   127   126   122   117   112   111
200 MB T (C)   -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3
TH_E DEV (C)       9    11    10    10     9    11     9    10     9     8     6     6     5
700-500 MB RH     48    47    46    47    54    54    54    51    53    51    52    47    46
GFS VTEX (KT)      5     5     6     6     7     7     7     7     8     6     7     7     6
850 MB ENV VOR    -8     6     5    13    26    37    41    28    10   -23   -30   -25   -11
200 MB DIV         7    11   -14     1    12   -10    34     2    19    -7    14    -6   -12
LAND (KM)        334   397   454   466   454   443   469   531   479   484   597   782   960
LAT (DEG N)     31.4  30.8  30.2  29.7  29.2  28.7  28.9  29.8  30.9  31.9  32.6  32.9  33.3
LONG(DEG W)     76.2  76.1  76.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  75.8  75.3  74.3  72.6  70.4  68.0  65.8
STM SPEED (KT)     6     6     6     5     3     1     3     6     7    10    10    10     9
HEAT CONTENT      49    57    55    50    45    45    43    46    34    28    11    11    17

[windstorm99]

At appears the the cold front would catch it and sweep it out to sea.

[HURAKAN]

Based on the preliminary forecast it seems Bermuda should keep an eye on it.

[Weatherfreak14]

I can see a center exposed northwest of most convection.

[skysummit]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT WED 29 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-097

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 30/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 30/1500Z
D. 29.0N 76.5W
E. 30/1730Z TO 30/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 31/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02FFA CYCLONE
C. 31/0200Z
D. 28.0N 76.0W
E. 31/0500Z TO 31/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES IF
SYTEM NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS REMAINS A THREAT.
POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR 13N 58W AT 31/1800Z.

[CronkPSU]

so we have a possible rainmaker and now a cold front appears?

[windstorm99]

Jeff masters....

South Carolina low

An area of low pressure has developed a few hundred miles off the South Carolina coast, along an old frontal boundary. This disturbance has been designated "95L" by NHC this morning. QuikSCAT showed a sharp wind shift but no closed circulation around 95L this morning at 6:34am EDT, and measured winds as high as 50 mph. Wind shear is about 15 knots over the disturbance, which is drifting south into a region where wind shear is expected to remain low enough to allow some development this week. I do think 95L will become a tropical depression, and most of the computer models also agree on this. The models disagree substantially on 95L's track, though. Steering currents will be weak in its vicinity, and 95L may spend a number of days wandering erratically. The Hurricane Hunters will investigate 95L Thursday afternoon

[JonathanBelles]

so we have a possible rainmaker and now a cold front appears?

I just got on and started looking at the models and was thinking the exact same thing.

[Sanibel]

The LLC is still distorted to the north and engrained in the front. Needs to wrap before it goes tropical over the Gulf Stream. Strange south movement.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This needs to bring rain to ockeechobee!
I think a tropical depression hopefully with a lot
of rain to fill the dry lakes.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on August 29, 2007

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

A tropical wave located about 900 miles east of the Windward Islands
is producing showers and thunderstorms. Although this activity is
currently disorganized...environmental conditions are expected to
gradually become more favorable for development as the system moves
westward at 15 to 20 mph.

An area of disturbed weather over the western Atlantic is primarily
associated with a non-tropical low centered about 260 miles
southeast of Charleston South Carolina. Upper-level winds could
become a little more favorable for development during the next few
days...and an Air Force plane is ready to investigate the system on
Thursday...if necessary. The low is expected to drift southward.

Showers and thunderstorms primarily located over the Yucatan
Peninsula are associated with a tropical wave. This activity is
expected to move over the Bay of Campeche during the next day or so
and will be monitored for any signs of development.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$

Forecaster Avila/Blake

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Is a ridge supposed to build in? The models are picking the cold
front theory. But there is evidence of a ridge with the SE flow across
Florida. Not wishcasting, but wondering about that ridge.

[CrazyC83]

Will this become Felix or Gabrielle? I think there is a good chance over the next couple days.

[HURAKAN]

If there is something that has a good chance of developing in the Atlantic at the moment is this system. Very similar kind of development experienced Florence in 2000.

[HURAKAN]

This needs to bring rain to ockeechobee!
I think a tropical depression hopefully with a lot
of rain to fill the dry lakes.

It will have to move very close or over land to produce rainfall because where it's located at the moment only dry air is what 95L will allow over Florida.

[Lowpressure]

North Carolina really needs some rain. The ridge is suppose to surpress 94L but not 95L?

[HURAKAN]

[RL3AO]

Interesting. The NHC thinks 95L is a more immediate threat for development.

[HURAKAN]

Interesting. The NHC thinks 95L is a more immediate threat for development.

Not just interesting, must likely a fact.