Tropical Depression HENRIETTE: Discussions & Advisories

[cycloneye]

WTPZ31 KNHC 311438
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007

...HENRIETTE HUGGING THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...

AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM
LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO MANZANILLO. TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
NOW IN EFFECT FROM JUST WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.1 WEST OR ABOUT
85 MILES...135 KM ...SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING CLOSE
TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO BUT ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF
THE TRACK WOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO FROM GUERRERO TO
JALISCO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...15.7 N...100.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


WTPZ41 KNHC 311439
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007

RADAR FROM ACAPULCO AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT HENRIETTE IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW A VERY LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CENTER
OF THE STORM APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CONVECTION DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR. IN ADDITION...A PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION IS INTERACTING WITH LAND. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
35 KNOTS. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED SINCE THE OCEAN
IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX GRADUALLY. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.

HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9
KNOTS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING NOT
TOO FAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH WOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST. A STRONG AND
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
IS FORECAST TO STEER HENRIETTE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOME UNCERTAIN SINCE
THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN AND MODELS DIVERGE. ONE GROUP OF
MODELS BRING THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE
OTHER GROUP TURNS THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LARGE SPREAD AT 96 AND
120 HOUR PERIODS...AND BRINGS HENRIETTA TO THE WEST AND NOT FAR
FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 15.7N 100.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 16.4N 101.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 17.4N 102.8W 50 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 18.3N 104.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 19.0N 106.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 03/1200Z 20.5N 109.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 04/1200Z 22.5N 111.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 05/1200Z 25.0N 113.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

049
WTPZ31 KNHC 311733
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
1100 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007

...HENRIETTE MOVING NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO MANZANILLO.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM JUST WEST OF MANZANILLO TO
CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.6 WEST OR ABOUT
75 MILES...125 KM ...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING CLOSE
TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...BUT ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF
THE TRACK WOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO FROM GUERRERO TO
JALISCO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...16.0 N...100.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTPZ31 KNHC 312033
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007

...HENRIETTE A LITTLE STRONGER...SOAKING ACAPULCO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO MANZANILLO.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST OR ABOUT 85
MILES...140 KM ...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING CLOSE
TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...BUT ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF
THE TRACK WOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HENRIETTE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO INDICATED THAT
ACAPULCO HAS EXPERIENCED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO FROM GUERRERO TO
JALISCO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE. ACAPULCO
HAS RECEIVED ALMOST 4 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...16.2 N...101.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



WTPZ41 KNHC 312034
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HENRIETTE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40
KNOTS. ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS INTERACTING WITH
LAND...THE OCEAN IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX.
THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
AND HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9
KNOTS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING NEAR
THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH WOULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST. THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT
CHANGED. A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO STEER HENRIETTE ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST
BECOME UNCERTAIN SINCE THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN. MODELS ARE NOW
IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND MOST OF THEM BRING THE CYCLONE TO THE WEST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 16.2N 101.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 16.9N 102.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 18.0N 104.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 18.8N 105.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 19.5N 107.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 21.0N 110.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 05/1800Z 24.5N 113.5W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[NetZeroZeus]

Anyone see a very slight resemblance to Hurricane John last year?

[cycloneye]

TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
500 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007

...HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH HENRIETTE CONTINUES OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO MANZANILLO.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.6 WEST OR ABOUT 120
MILES...195 KM ...WEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...20
KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NEAR OR PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...BUT ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO
THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HENRIETTE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO FROM GUERRERO TO
JALISCO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...16.8 N...101.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

WTPZ31 KNHC 010233
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007

...HENRIETTE STRENGTHENS A BIT...MOVING PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO MANZANILLO.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO
CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.1 WEST OR ABOUT 195
MILES...315 KM...SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 145 MILES
...235 KM...WEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK WOULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO FROM GUERRERO TO
JALISCO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...17.1 N...102.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[Chacor]

WTPZ31 KNHC 010559
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
1100 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007

...HENRIETTE BRINGING HEAVY RAINS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO...

AT 11 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO CABO CORRIENTES AND DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF ACAPULCO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM
ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES. TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO
CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST OR ABOUT 160
MILES...260 KM...SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 190 MILES
...310 KM...WEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK WOULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
MEXICO. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...17.2 N...102.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

[cycloneye]

WTPZ41 KNHC 010903
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007

ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION WITH
TOPS AROUND -80C MAINLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS ALSO EXPANDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...
BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER IT IS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 45
KT...AND A 0128 UTC QSCAT PASS ESTIMATED WINDS AROUND 45 KT. SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 45 KT. THE INITIAL WIND
RADII WERE EXPANDED BASED ON THE QSCAT PASS.

THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO ABATE AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
WARM FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREFORE...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST UNTIL HENRIETTE REACHES COOLER WATERS. THE INTERACTION
THAT HENRIETTE HAS WITH LAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS COULD HINDER
INTENSIFICATION...HOWEVER IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS FURTHER OFFSHORE
THAN FORECAST HENRIETTE COULD BECOME A STRONGER HURRICANE AS
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND HWRF GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10...AND THE STORM IS BEING STEERED BY A
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR
SO. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS DIVERGE AS TO WHEN THE RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR A MOTION MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.
THE GFDN...ECMWF...AND GFDL MODELS OPT FOR A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
OVER SOUTHERN BAJA. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE HWRF...GFS...AND
NOGAPS MAINTAIN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION LONGER AND KEEP THE
CYCLONE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE LATTER AND IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 17.4N 103.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 18.1N 104.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 18.8N 106.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 19.4N 107.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 19.9N 109.3W 70 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 21.0N 111.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 05/0600Z 22.5N 113.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 06/0600Z 25.0N 115.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007

...HENRIETTE AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO. TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO
CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.7 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK WOULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
MEXICO. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...17.6 N...103.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

658
WTPZ41 KNHC 011444
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007

THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS LARGE BUT HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH IN
ORGANIZATION AND THE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45
KNOTS. THE CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND AND BOTH
SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING.
THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION AND HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO.

HENRIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OR 295
DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO EXPAND A
LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THIS PATTERN COULD FORCE THE
CYCLONE TO MOVE TEMPORARILY ON MORE WESTERLY TRACK.
THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE FORECAST BECOME HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. ONCE AGAIN A GROUP OF TRACK MODELS BRING THE CYCLONE
WELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE THE OCEAN IS COOLER RESULTING IN
A GRADUAL WEAKENING. ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS BRINGS HENRIETTE OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA OR EVEN THE GULF OF CORTES WHERE THE WATER IS WARM
AND STRENGTHENING COULD CONTINUE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OPTED FOR
THE FIRST OPTION AND KEEPS HENRIETTE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
WEAKENING. THIS IN FACT...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 17.8N 104.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 18.5N 105.7W 50 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 19.2N 107.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 19.5N 109.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W 70 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 21.5N 113.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 23.0N 114.1W 60 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 26.0N 115.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

945
WTPZ31 KNHC 011733
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007

...HENRIETTE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF
MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES...130 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 470
MILES...755 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK HENRIETTE WILL BE GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
HENRIETTE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO..

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
MEXICO. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...18.0 N...104.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

061
WTPZ31 KNHC 012032
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007

...HENRIETTE STRENGTHENING...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO PRIMARILY THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF HENRIETTE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.4 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES...145 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 435 MILES
...700 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK THE CIRCULATION WILL BE GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM GUERRERO
TO JALISCO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 6
INCHES POSSIBLE. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE
POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...18.2 N...105.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

658
WTPZ41 KNHC 012033
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007

NOW THAT MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION IS MOVING AWAY FROM LAND...THE
CLOUD PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO HAVE A MORE DISTINCT SHAPE. THE
CENTER IS VERY MUCH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTION AND WITHIN
SEVERAL CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. IN FACT...THERE IS A HINT OF AN
EYE FEATURE. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED SUPPORTING A HIGHER INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO RELAX AND THE OCEAN IS
WARM. THEREFORE..HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE CURRENT MOTION WHICH CONTINUES TO BE
295 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WHILE A MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. UNANIMOUSLY...MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE HIGH ALLOWING HENRIETTE TO TURN MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH BEYOND 3 DAYS. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE BRINGS HENRIETTE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COOLER WATERS JUST
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. ONLY THE GFDL AND THE ECMWF MODELS BRING THE CYCLONE
NORTHWARD OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ...GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WHERE THE
OCEAN IS QUITE WARM. IN THIS CASE... HENRIETTE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY AND THE HURRICANE WOULD BE MORE DANGEROUS TO MEXICO.
ONE SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FUTURE RUNS OF THESE TWO RELIABLE
MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 18.2N 105.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 18.8N 106.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 19.5N 108.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 20.0N 110.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 111.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 22.0N 113.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 24.0N 115.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 27.0N 115.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

457
WTPZ31 KNHC 012349
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007

...HENRIETTE EDGING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO...COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO PRIMARILY THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF HENRIETTE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.6 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 420
MILES...680 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK THE CIRCULATION WILL BE GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM GUERRERO
TO JALISCO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 6
INCHES POSSIBLE. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE
POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...18.3N 105.6W MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER COBB/BEVEN

For those that may care!!!

[NetZeroZeus]

For what it's worth I care since I'm being directly affected by it, lol. I've been following it's track and it seems I'm in the clear except for some light rain, which I'm OK with. Baja California really needs to watch this though as it might just bend northwards.

[HURAKAN]

If I were in your situation I would also care!!! Good luck.

[HurricaneRobert]

Looks like it's getting tightly wound up. I was wondering who would become a hurricane first - Henriette or Felix, but obviously she lost this match.

[HURAKAN]

WTPZ21 KNHC 020243
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
0300 UTC SUN SEP 02 2007

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WARNINGS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES
AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HENRIETTE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 106.1W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 15SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 75SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 106.1W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 105.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.9N 107.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.4N 109.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.1N 110.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.0N 111.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 25.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 29.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 106.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER COBB/BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

287
WTPZ41 KNHC 020844
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT OUTER BANDS...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES OF
THE CYCLONE...ARE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THE DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES REMAIN UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BASED ON THE RECENT IMAGES...HENRIETTE
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS MORNING. FOR NOW...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 60 KT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS ESSENTIALLY A CARBON COPY FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED UPWARD TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 80 KT AT THE 36 AND 48 HR PERIODS TO CONFORM WITH A
BLEND OF THE GFDL...LGE MODEL AND THE SHIPS. THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
OVER COOLER WATERS.

HENRIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE LEFT OF TRACK THIS EVENING...WITH
AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 280/8. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE THE CYCLONE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED GENERAL MOTION DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTERWARD...HENRIETTE SHOULD BEGIN A TURN
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND ULTIMATELY NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MAJORITY OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL
AND ECMWF...WHICH HAVE BEEN REFLECTING A RIGHT OF TRACK
BIAS...INDICATIVE OF UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND IS BASED ON THE CORRECTED
CONSENSUS MODEL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 18.5N 107.0W 60 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 18.7N 108.2W 70 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 19.2N 109.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 19.8N 110.8W 80 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 20.8N 112.1W 80 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 23.4N 114.1W 70 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 26.0N 115.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 07/0600Z 29.0N 115.0W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB

The EPAC should get their 3rd hurricane of the season later today.

[HURAKAN]

611
WTPZ21 KNHC 021441
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
1500 UTC SUN SEP 02 2007

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WARNINGS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES
AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HENRIETTE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 106.7W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 30SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 80SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 106.7W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 106.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.2N 107.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 45SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.0N 110.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.0N 111.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W...INLAND OVER BAJA
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 30.1N 113.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 106.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

_________________________________________________________

610
WTPZ41 KNHC 021441
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007

WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE UNCHANGED AT 1200 UTC...DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS SINCE INCREASED AND A NEW BAND IS
FORMING TO THE NORTH. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA ALSO SHOW THAT THE
CYCLONE HAS A SMALL CORE. HENRIETTE COULD BE ON THE VERGE OF
BECOMING A HURRICANE BUT I PREFER TO WAIT UNTIL VISIBLE IMAGERY
CONFIRMS THE CENTER LOCATION AND STRUCTURE. ACCORDINGLY...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT HENRIETTE WILL BE LOCATED IN A SEEMINGLY
IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ALREADY UNRESTRICTED IN ALL QUADRANTS AND
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER HENRIETTE
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED DURING THE NEW FEW DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...
SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AMPLY WARM. THE SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX INDICATES A HIGHER THAN USUAL CHANCE FOR
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED
UPWARDS AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN ICON. BEYOND 48 HOURS...
COOLERS WATERS AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH LAND ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN WEAKENING.

HENRIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 295/6. THE
SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN CONSISTS PRIMARILY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WOULD ALLOW HENRIETTE TO
GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD. CONVERSELY...THE GFDL
SHOWS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS
ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALMOST INSTANTLY AND THEN
TURN NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S.
WHILE THE GFDL REMAINS THE EASTERNMOST OUTLIER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THIS MODEL PERFORMED VERY WELL IN SIMILAR SITUATIONS LAST
YEAR. IN PARTICULAR...THE GFDL MODEL OUTPERFORMED THE GLOBAL
MODELS DURING JOHN AND LANE...TWO HURRICANES WHICH SIMILARLY
PARALLELED THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN DEFERENCE TO
THE GFDL MODEL AND IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 18.8N 106.7W 60 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 19.2N 107.6W 70 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 109.0W 75 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 21.0N 110.2W 85 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 22.0N 111.3W 80 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 24.0N 112.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W 50 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA
120HR VT 07/1200Z 30.1N 113.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME