Tropical Depression HENRIETTE: Discussions & Advisories

[RL3AO]

Wasn't expecting warnings.

[cycloneye]

Forecast Track



Track parallels the coast and that is why the warnings.

[RL3AO]

Yeah. I didn't realize it was moving that far north of west. I thought it was moving WNW or so.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It will very likely stay off shore...Overall this system looks promising with deep convection forming close or over the LLC...With quickscat showing 30 knots close to shore already. This is most likely 30-35 knots at the moment.

That is my latest thoughts....Just my option.

[CrazyC83]

Sorry Gil, but Henriette is stealing the headlines...

[cycloneye]

Sorry Gil, but Henriette is stealing the headlines...

Not too fast,it may be but officially is not a storm.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The way its developing it will be soon enough. This could become a cane if it moves slowly.

[cycloneye]

542
WTPZ31 KNHC 302342
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
500 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF
MEXICO...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO
ACAPULCO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF ACAPULCO TO ZIHUATANEJO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST OR ABOUT
145 MILES...230 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO AND
ABOUT 210 MILES...340 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
MEXICAN COASTLINE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA...GUERRERO...MICHOCAN...AND COLIMA WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS AROUND 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...14.5 N...97.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[CrazyC83]

Surprised it wasn't upgraded...

[Dick Pache]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0049 UTC FRI AUG 31 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ELEVEN (EP112007) 20070831 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070831 0000 070831 1200 070901 0000 070901 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 97.6W 15.8N 98.9W 16.8N 100.1W 17.7N 101.5W
BAMD 14.6N 97.6W 15.3N 99.1W 16.0N 100.5W 16.6N 101.8W
BAMM 14.6N 97.6W 15.5N 98.9W 16.3N 100.2W 17.1N 101.5W
LBAR 14.6N 97.6W 15.2N 99.4W 16.3N 101.3W 17.1N 103.3W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS 53KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070902 0000 070903 0000 070904 0000 070905 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.7N 103.1W 20.4N 106.0W 22.0N 109.2W 23.0N 111.2W
BAMD 17.4N 102.9W 19.4N 105.1W 22.0N 106.7W 25.1N 107.2W
BAMM 18.0N 102.8W 20.2N 105.3W 22.6N 107.7W 24.8N 108.9W
LBAR 18.1N 105.0W 20.3N 108.1W 23.1N 110.0W 26.9N 110.3W
SHIP 63KTS 76KTS 78KTS 78KTS
DSHP 63KTS 76KTS 78KTS 78KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 97.6W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.6N LONM12 = 96.5W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 12.4N LONM24 = 95.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 110NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[windstorm99]

Track and computer models for TD Eleven...

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
0300 UTC FRI AUG 31 2007

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF
ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACHACA TO TECPAN DE GALEANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO WESTWARD TO
MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT WEST OF TECPAN
DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 98.0W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 98.0W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 97.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.4N 98.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.4N 100.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.2N 101.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.9N 103.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.5N 106.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 21.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 22.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 98.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

WTPZ31 KNHC 310231
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
800 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO...WARNINGS AND WATCHES EXTENDED WESTWARD...

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF
ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACHACA TO TECPAN DE GALEANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO WESTWARD TO
MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT WEST OF TECPAN
DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.0 WEST OR ABOUT
120 MILES...190 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO AND
ABOUT 200 MILES...320 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...
14 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN COASTLINE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS....AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA...GUERRERO...MICHOCAN...AND COLIMA WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS AROUND 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...14.7 N...98.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[wxmann_91]

This will almost certainly have a tough time with interaction with mainland Mexico. A lot of systems in fact, if they move too slowly, get pulled into Mexico and then dissipate. Not ruling that out with this storm.

However, looking at the 12Z GFS, if this survives Mexico, it could rapidly strengthen afterwards. A large UL anticyclone is progged to develop over the system, and dual outflow channels are also progged.

[cycloneye]

612
WTPZ31 KNHC 310844
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007

...DEPRESSION JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO NEARING TROPICAL
STORM STATUS...

AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST
OF MEXICO FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAN
TELMO TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.3 WEST OR ABOUT
120 MILES...190 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NEAR AND PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS
MORNING.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...15.3 N...99.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

230
WTPZ41 KNHC 310900
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN GAINING ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. GOES-EAST IMAGERY FOLLOWING THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE PERIOD
HAS REVEALED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN BOTH THE DEPTH AND COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION...INCLUDING RIGHT OVER THE ESTIMATED LOCATION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ACAPULCO RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT HEAVY
RAINS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE NOT QUITE YET A CONSENSUS 2.5...SO THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. SINCE CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED SINCE 06Z...THE DEPRESSION IS PROBABLY ON VERGE OF
BECOMING TROPICAL STORM. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN CALLING FOR
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING...AS THE CURRENT EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO LESSEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FORECAST STILL
INDICATES HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS...CONSISTENT WITH THE
SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE...EVEN THOUGH THE GFDL AND HWRF DO NOT
FORECAST MUCH INTENSIFICATION.

BASED ON AN EARLIER 00Z WINDSAT OVERPASS...AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM
ACAPULCO MEXICO...THE CENTER LOCATION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SOUTHWARD...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 300/9. THAT
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE. BEYOND THAT TIME
MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST THAT RIDGE TO WEAKEN. IF THE CYCLONE
STRENGTHENS AS FORECAST IT WILL LIKELY TURN NORTHWESTWARD LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THAT WEAKNESS...ALONG THE LINES OF THE
ECMWF AND GFS TRACK FORECASTS. IF IT FOR SOME REASON IS
WEAKER...AS THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE SUGGESTING...THE TRACK COULD END
UP BEING FARTHER SOUTH IN THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0900Z 15.3N 99.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 16.0N 100.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 16.9N 102.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 17.8N 103.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 18.5N 105.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 03/0600Z 19.5N 108.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 04/0600Z 21.5N 110.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 05/0600Z 23.5N 112.5W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[HURAKAN]

No, I don't think that an eye!!!

[Chacor]

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 311143
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
500 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E UPGRADED TO HENRIETTE NEAR THE
MEXICAN COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO PUNTA SAN
TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAN
TELMO TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.7 WEST OR ABOUT
85 MILES...140 KM...SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR AND
PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.50 INCHES.

HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...15.5 N...99.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Chacor]

Can a mod please update the topic? It's now TS Henriette.

[Chacor]

274
TCCA23 KNHC 311311
STDWCA

SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC FRI AUG 31 2007


SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...T.S. HENRIETTE (FORMERLY 11-E)

MAX RAINFALL
DATE/TIME LOCATION MOTION MEAN LAST
----------- ------------ ------ ------- -------
31/1215 UTC 15.6N 99.6W 305/08 13.7 IN 15.4 IN


LAST RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...

DISTANCE LEFT OF CENTER RIGHT OF CENTER
------------- --------------- ---------------
0 TO 1 DEGREE 11.0 TO 15.4 IN 2.6 TO 10.8 IN
1 TO 2 DEGREE 4.6 TO 11.2 IN 0.3 TO 2.4 IN
2 TO 3 DEGREE 1.1 TO 4.5 IN 0.0 TO 0.9 IN
3 TO 4 DEGREE 0.0 TO 1.0 IN 0.0 TO 0.0 IN


...LEGEND...

SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...NAME OR NUMBER ASSIGNED TO SYSTEM
(E.G. TROPICAL STORM ALPHA, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE 01, SURFACE TROUGH)

DATE/TIME... DAY OF MONTH AND TIME IN UNIVERSAL TIME
COORDINATES (UTC) IN A DY/HRMN FORMAT

LOCATION... ESTIMATED CENTER OF SYSTEM OR ADVISORY
POSITION FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IN TENTHS
OF DEGREES OF LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE

MOTION... ESTIMATED DIRECTION AND SPEED OF SYSTEM
IN DEGREES AND KNOTS

MEAN MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE 24-HOUR MEAN MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF
RAINFALL FOR THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED
ON FOUR SATELLITE IMAGES SIX HOURS APART

LAST MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL FOR
THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED ON THE MOST
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGE

RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION... THE DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL WITHIN FOUR
DEGREES (240 NM) LEFT AND RIGHT OF THE
SYSTEM CENTER IN ONE DEGREE (60NM)
INCREMENTS...LOOKING DOWNSTREAM
(1 IN = 25.4 MM)



NNNN
WALLY BARNES