Tropical Storm Felix advisories

[HURAKAN]

106
WTNT31 KNHC 012344
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2007

...FELIX BECOMES A HURRICANE...NEW WATCH FOR JAMAICA...

AT 8 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.0 WEST OR ABOUT
155 MILES...250 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF BONAIRE AND ABOUT
270 MILES...435 KM...EAST OF ARUBA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...FELIX WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES FELIX A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON BOARD THE
HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 15 MILES...25 KM...FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...PRIMARILY TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE
ISLANDS OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...12.6 N...66.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[MiamiensisWx]

...CORRECTED REPEAT SECTION...

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...12.6 N...66.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/020005.shtml

[Brent]

HURRICANE FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
0300 UTC SUN SEP 02 2007

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DUTCH NETHERLAND
ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 66.9W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 75SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 40SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 66.9W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 66.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.2N 69.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.0N 73.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.7N 76.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.4N 79.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 18.0N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 20.5N 92.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 66.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[windstorm99]

[HURAKAN]

403
WTNT31 KNHC 020250
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2007

...CENTER OF FELIX MOVING WESTWARD...LIKELY TO PASS JUST NORTH OF
BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA ON SUNDAY...

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DUTCH NETHERLAND
ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ARUBA...
BONAIRE...AND CURACAO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.9 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...
160 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BONAIRE AND ABOUT 210 MILES...340 KM...
EAST OF ARUBA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF FELIX JUST
NORTH OF BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...12.7 N...66.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 77 KT WINDS AT A FLIGHT
LEVEL OF 7500 FT...AND SURFACE WINDS AROUND 65 KT ON THE STEPPED
FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED THAT A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 993 MB AND A 30 N MI WIDE EYE. BASED ON THIS...
FELIX HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD BE
CONSERVATIVE.

FELIX HAS MOVED MORE WESTWARD FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE BUILDING WESTWARD THROUGH 72 HR...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP FELIX ON A COURSE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS TIME. AFTER
72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SOMEWHAT DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TROUGHING OVER TEXAS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION
TOWARD SOUTHERN YUCATAN OR CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE GFDL HAS MADE
A SOUTHWARD SHIFT TO JOIN THEM. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS
CALLS FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDN BEING SOMEWHAT TO
THE SOUTH OF THAT. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE. IT IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH
72 HR DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 96 HR.

FELIX CURRENTLY HAS FAIR TO GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUS...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS
REASONS THAT FELIX SHOULD NOT STEADILY INTENSIFY UNTIL IT
APPROACHES CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
THAT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND EXPERIMENTAL LGE MODELS. THE
RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO CALL
FOR A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...SO IT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISING IF FELIX WAS STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY 72 HR.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR MAY BE DEPENDENT ON A
COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...
BOTH OF WHICH ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT FELIX WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 12.7N 66.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 13.2N 69.6W 75 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 14.0N 73.2W 85 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 14.7N 76.6W 90 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 15.4N 79.7W 100 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 16.5N 84.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 18.0N 88.5W 110 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/0000Z 20.5N 92.5W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
200 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2007

...FELIX A LITTLE STRONGER AS ITS CENTER BEGINS TO PASS JUST NORTH
OF BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN
THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.8 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...
70 KM...NORTHEAST OF BONAIRE AND ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM...
EAST OF ARUBA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF FELIX JUST
NORTH OF BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

REPORTS FROM A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW AT
LEAST 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY
ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
PLANE WAS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...12.7 N...67.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

HURRICANE FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
0900 UTC SUN SEP 02 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 68.7W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 75SE 40SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 68.7W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 67.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.2N 71.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.9N 75.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.6N 78.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.3N 81.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.5N 87.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 18.0N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 20.0N 94.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 68.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2007

...FELIX STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS ITS CENTER
PASSES JUST NORTH OF BONAIRE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST OR ABOUT 400 MILES...
645 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ARUBA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF FELIX WILL PASS VERY NEAR TO THE NORTH
OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND
INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

DATA FROM A AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND FELIX COULD BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
PLANE WAS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...OVER
THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...12.8 N...68.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

FELIX HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED OVERNIGHT. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 93
KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 984 MB DURING THE LAST EYE PENETRATION
AT ABOUT 0638Z. IN ADDITION...AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE MEASURED
SURFACE WINDS OF 85 KT DERIVED FROM THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWER
LAYER OF THE SOUNDING. BASED ON THESE DATA THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS SET TO 85 KT. WHILE THE EYE HAS NOT YET BECOME DISCERNIBLE IN
CONVENTIONAL GOES INFRARED IMAGERY...IT IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN RADAR
IMAGERY FROM CURACAO AND IN PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM A TRMM
OVERPASS AT 0619Z.

FELIX CONTINUES ON A PATH JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST OR 275/16...WITH
STEERING PROVIDED BY A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BUILD
WESTWARD...PREVENTING FELIX FROM GAINING ANY SIGNIFICANT LATITUDE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.
EVEN THE NOGAPS...AN EARLIER NORTHERN OUTLIER...HAS SHIFTED SOUTH
AND BACK INTO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. BEYOND 72
HOURS...THE MODELS TAKE VARIOUS PATHS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH
THE MOST SOUTHERN SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFDL. THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH...MOSTLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE INITIAL MOTION. THE FORECAST AT 4-5 DAYS IS RATHER
UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON JUST HOW MUCH RIDGING IS PRESENT OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AT THAT TIME.

ALL FACTORS POINT TO CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION...AND THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD MAINLY TO REFLECT THE
OVERNIGHT STRENGTHENING JUST OBSERVED...AND SO IS HIGHER THAN MOST
OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. FELIX APPEARS ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING A
MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...BUT HOW MUCH LAND IT TRAVERSES
BEYOND 48 HOURS MAKES THE LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECAST VERY
UNCERTAIN.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 12.8N 68.7W 85 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 13.2N 71.3W 95 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 13.9N 75.0W 105 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 14.6N 78.6W 115 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 15.3N 81.9W 125 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 16.5N 87.0W 120 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 18.0N 91.0W 70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/0600Z 20.0N 94.5W 70 KT...OVER WATER

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[windstorm99]

[HURAKAN]

269
WTNT31 KNHC 021201
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2007

...FELIX PASSING NORTH OF CURACAO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES...615 KM... SOUTH OF SANTO
DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...
NORTHEAST OF ARUBA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/HR...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF FELIX WILL BE
PASSING JUST NORTH OF ARUBA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND INTO
THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND FELIX COULD BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...OVER
THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...13.0 N...69.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

476
WTNT21 KNHC 021432
TCMAT1
HURRICANE FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1500 UTC SUN SEP 02 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 70.1W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 40SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 70.1W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 69.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.7N 72.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.4N 76.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.1N 79.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.8N 82.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 19.0N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 21.0N 94.0W...GULF OF MEXICO
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 70.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

382
WTNT41 KNHC 021435
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

FELIX IS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE WITH A SYMMETRIC-APPEARING CLOUD
STRUCTURE AND STRONG UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW. THE EYE IS
BECOMING WELL-DEFINED ON VISIBLE IMAGES AND THE CURACAO RADAR IS
SHOWING A RATHER CLASSIC PRESENTATION...WITH THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL
PASSING WELL NORTH OF ARUBA. THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT EYE
PENETRATIONS BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT BUT BASED ON THE
INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED EYE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ADJUSTED...PROBABLY CONSERVATIVELY...TO 90 KT. THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN EXTREMELY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND
TO MOVE OVER WATERS OF INCREASINGLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.
THEREFORE I SEE NO REASON WHY FELIX WILL NOT BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE LOGISTIC GROWTH EQUATION MODEL...LGEM...
VERSION OF SHIPS AND CALLS FOR CAT. 4 INTENSITY WITHING 36 HOURS.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE PURELY DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
VERY BULLISH ON THE STRENGTHENING OF FELIX SO FAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS JUST A SMIDGEN TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES...AROUND 285/16. THERE IS NO IMPORTANT CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST REASONING FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. GLOBAL MODEL
PREDICTIONS SHOW A DEEP LAYER RIDGE PERSISTING TO THE NORTH OF
FELIX...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE
HURRICANE'S TRACK OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST LOCATIONS. THE GFS SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THIS FEATURE COULD ERODE
THE HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RESULT IN A MORE NORTHWARD
TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THIS ADVISORY
PACKAGE ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IS MADE TO THE 96- AND
120-HOUR FORECASTS. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AT 3-5 DAYS. IN ANY EVENT IT
SHOULD BE RECALLED THAT THE AVERAGE TRACK ERRORS AT 4 AND 5 DAYS
RANGE FROM OVER 200 MILES TO NEARLY 300 MILES RESPECTIVELY...SO ONE
SHOULD NOT BE FOCUSING ON THE EXACT TRACK AT THESE EXTENDED RANGES.

THE RADII OF 12-FT SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAVE BEEN
EXPANDED BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 42059.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 13.2N 70.1W 90 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 13.7N 72.8W 100 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 14.4N 76.3W 110 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 15.1N 79.5W 120 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 15.8N 82.7W 125 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 17.0N 87.0W 120 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 19.0N 90.5W 70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/1200Z 21.0N 94.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

Felix
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2007

...FELIX PASSING NORTH OF ARUBA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.1 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...
75 KM...NORTH OF ARUBA AND ABOUT 555 MILES...895 KM...SOUTHEAST OF
KINGSTON JAMAICA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND FELIX COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
POSSIBLE MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES...THE PARAGUANA PENINSULA OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...13.2 N...70.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.


FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
200 PM AST SUN SEP 02 2007

...FELIX STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS
DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 13.4
NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST OR ABOUT 490 MILES...790 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...
AND FELIX COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
POSSIBLE MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES...THE PARAGUANA PENINSULA OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...13.4 N...71.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

HURRICANE FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
2100 UTC SUN SEP 02 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 72.0W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 40SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 72.0W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 71.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.1N 74.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.8N 78.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.4N 81.1W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 83.5W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 17.3N 87.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 19.5N 91.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 21.5N 95.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 72.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

...FELIX CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 440 MILES...
710 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...220
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 956
MB...28.23 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...13.6 N...72.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

713
WTNT41 KNHC 022039
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

THERE HAS BEEN RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE HURRICANE TODAY. FELIX
HAS A SPECTACULAR PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A WELL-
DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED IN A CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE
HURRICANE HUNTER CREW REPORTED A STADIUM EFFECT IN THE EYE AND THAT
THE EYE DIAMETER HAD SHRUNK TO 12 N MI. THE AIR FORCE PLANE ALSO
MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 132 KT AND...FOR A
SYSTEM OF SUCH CONVECTIVE VIGOR...THE 90 PER CENT RATIO OF SURFACE
TO FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SHOULD CERTAINLY APPLY HERE. THIS WOULD
EQUATE TO PEAK SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 120 KT. A GPS DROPSONDE IN
THE NORTHERN EYEWALL MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 128 KT BUT THIS IS
A SPOT WIND THAT IS NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENTATIVE OF A 1-MINUTE
AVERAGE. THUS THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 120 KT. A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 957 MB WAS MEASURED BY DROPSONDE...WITH 15 KT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE. SO THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER OR 956 MB. THIS CORRESPONDS TO A FALL IN CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
A RATE OF 3.4 MB PER HOUR OVER THE PAST 7 HOURS OR SO...WHICH IS
ONE OF THE MORE RAPID DEEPENING RATES WE HAVE OBSERVED. FELIX WILL
REMAIN IN A VERY LOW SHEAR TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND WILL BE
PASSING OVER WATERS OF EXTREMELY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...TO EXACERBATE THE SITUATION...
THERE IS A WARM EDDY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT FELIX IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE OVER IN 12 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE AND THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL
FOR US TO HAVE ANOTHER CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON OUR HANDS BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

A SWIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...285/17...CONTINUES. I HAVE MADE
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE REASONING
BEHIND IT. A WELL-ESTABLISHED DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
FELIX SHOULD MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN THE CURRENT MOTION FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS CALLED FOR BY DAY
3 AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. THE EXACT FATE OF FELIX OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN SINCE THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY
THAT A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. COULD ERODE THE RIDGE MORE THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF THE
DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS TURN FELIX SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE
RIGHT THROUGH 120 HOURS. IN FACT...THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN HAS
SHIFTED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. AGAIN...BECAUSE
OF THE UNCERTAINTIES...WE ADVISE AGAINST PUTTING TOO MUCH EMPHASIS
ON THE EXACT NHC FORECAST TRACK AT 4 AND 5 DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 13.6N 72.0W 120 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 14.1N 74.5W 125 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 14.8N 78.0W 130 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 15.4N 81.1W 135 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 16.0N 83.5W 135 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 17.3N 87.7W 135 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 19.5N 91.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 95.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

HURRICANE FELIX SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
0000 UTC MON SEP 03 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 72.9W AT 03/0000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 40SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 72.9W AT 03/0000Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 71.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.1N 74.5W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.8N 78.0W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.4N 81.1W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 83.5W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 17.3N 87.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 19.5N 91.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 21.5N 95.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 72.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

...FELIX NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT FELIX
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST OR ABOUT 390 MILES...
625 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE TO BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE
DATA IS 934 MB...27.58 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...13.8 N...72.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN