Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[jojo]

Even if it doesn't affect the US, it affects your neighbours and lots of things can be learnt by continuing the coverage, getting help in early, learning about better evacuation procedures, building structures, communication, etc. All of this can benefit the US for when it's their turn. This hurricane could have wiped out a good proportion of the miskitos population, their villages, their culture could be lost. Judging by the last few years, hurricanes are stronger than ever and help is always needed when, as in this year, records are broken and two intensifying cat 5 hurricanes hit land with devastating consequences. We need to anticipate these more and react faster when they do to help prevent loss of life and help with rebuilding and basic aid.

Felix hardly seems to have moved since hitting Nicaragua and I'd imagine the rainfall is horrendous, much like Mitch and Fifi - this shouldn't go unnoticed as things can be willingly done about it if it's publicised. Let's not let people die unnecessarily just to have a few more shots of Paris Hilton and the like all over the news.

[Gorky]

The WSW to SW motion really concerns me. Not only has the speed slowed, but as it moves closer to the pacific, it's more likely to pic up moisture from there which will worsen the flooding. The worst thing though, is that the band of rain wrapping into the hurricane from the north will start to train over the same area for longer if it's westard component is slowed. I'd imagine some areas of the north central and nroth western portions of Honduras will get some insane rainfall totals from the feeder bands, which currently are stretching all the way up towards Cuba and around to Jamaica!

[fasterdisaster]

Should we expect another tad of a decrease in forward speed at 8?

[Coredesat]

It should be noted that as stated earlier in the thread, western Honduras is much more densely populated than coastal Nicaragua. They could be in for a catastrophic flood event if Felix is continuing to slow down (which it appears to be doing on the VIS loop).

[Derek Ortt]

it's not moving WSW... it's hardly moving at all, probably down to about 8-10 mph

[MetSul Weather Center]

You are complaining about media coverage in the US and as a foreigner I can offer an idea regarding what we watched abroad. CNN International is the CNN channel focused on the world. Coverage of Felix by CNNI was horrible. CNN USA dedicated much more time to the hurricane than CNN International. By the way, CNN USA is mucht better (graphics, studios, anchors) than CNNI.

[Tom8]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

[fasterdisaster]

You are complaining about media coverage in the US and as a foreigner I can offer an idea regarding what we watched abroad. CNN International is the CNN channel focused on the world. Coverage of Felix by CNNI was horrible. CNN USA dedicated much more time to the hurricane than CNN International. By the way, CNN USA is mucht better (graphics, studios, anchors) than CNNI.

I get CNN International(Lot of cable channels, haha), and it used to be the other way around, CNNI was applauded in comparision to CNN. IMO, I think they have both been watered down too much to appeal to people who really don't care about news and only care about pop culture.

[fasterdisaster]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

Looks like it's still a hurricane honestly.

[MetSul Weather Center]

They could be in for a catastrophic flood event if Felix is continuing to slow down (which it appears to be doing on the VIS loop).

Picture now published in one Honduras newspaper.



The internet news coverage in Central America is poor. Best places in Latin America to get up to the minute news of any event are Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia and Mexico. If Felix had affected Brazil or any of these countries mentioned, there would be tons of pictures available at this time.

[jojo]

Looks like very densely populated areas of El Salvador are being hit hard by this too. The coming weeks look to be devastating for this part of central America.

[Derek Ortt]

those pictures are very worrying s they likely were from a few hours ago, and it has rained quite a few additional inches since then

[Normandy]

they did NOT get cat 1 winds

They took the southern eyewall, which has at least REAL cat 3 winds

Which is why that claim I saw on another board is clearly wrong....I need to find the post that made that claim...it actually had a HURDAT wind analysis map at landfall showing the southern half of Felix having only Cat1 winds largely (Depicted a VERY asymetrical storm)....Thing is I don't know where they got the data to do that considering that their was no recon in the storm and no reliable wind obs.

[Vigilant]

Puerto Cabezas está destruida, hay viviendas, iglesias, árboles y postes de energía eléctrica caídos por todas partes, no hay luz, ni agua, la gente perdió lo poco que tenía", dijo a la AFP el gobernador de la Región Autónoma del Atlántico Norte (RAAN), Reinaldo Francis.

I'll do my best here translating part of that news report.

"Puerto Cabezas is destroyed. Houses, churches, trees and electricity posts are down everywhere. The is not water, electricity. People lost everything," said governor Reinaldo Francis.

[MiamiensisWx]

Unfortunately, I think the stage may be set for a significant precipitation event, and "training" may occur over the next 24 to 48 hours. The forward motion has slowed down significantly, and Felix is drifting into an environment of weaker low to mid-level steering currents. The circulation is expanding, and Felix is crossing over mountainous and hilly elevations of 2,000 - 3,000 feet (see this map). This system has been maintaining its core well inland; this factor could enhance problems. Additionally, there is an evironment of tremendous low-level convergence and 850 hPa vorticity:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html

These factors (plus elevation and slow motion) will likely strongly enhance convection, and the diurnal maximum will aid POPS and thunderstorms. You should add the influence of a weak upper low over the Bay of Campeche (see visible and water vapor) and good inflow system on the southern side of the circulation. Felix is literally "breathing" moisture, especially because of sufficient instability and lower pressures over the Pacific to the south. This synoptic scenario unfolded with Stan (2005), Mitch (1998), and other killer systems. I hate to admit the truth, but I think we could easily see a death toll into the hundreds (I won't speculate on thousands). If you add the indirect deaths, fatalities over rural areas near the point of landfall (ala Punta Gorda and other Miskito communities), I would not be surprised if we observe a major disaster. We should not forget the impact in Puerto Cabezas and deaths in other countries, too.

I think Puerto Cabezas and other communities to the north experienced a significant storm surge, which could explain the reports of severe damage. Additionally, I suspect significant wind damage and erosion has occurred near the landfall point and within the eyewall. At this point, I think Dean and Felix are done; unfortunately, these names likely will live in infamy as horrendously destructive events. I would be shocked if they are not retired.

[MetSul Weather Center]

Vigilant, thanks for helping in the translation to the folks here.

The governor said: "People lost the few things they had". It is the same you translated: "everything".

[CrazyC83]

Information is going to be fairly slow to get in, as these countries for the most part lack the communications, especially when many go down.

[Stratosphere747]

http://www.elnuevodiario.com.ni/

16:04 | Ortega decreta estado de desastre
El presidente Daniel Ortega decretó estado de desastre en la Región Autónoma del Atlántico Norte, RAAN, tras el paso del huracán “Félix”, que causó cuantiosos daños materiales en el tendido eléctrico, en líneas...
-Noticia relacionada: RAAN incomunicada e intransitable
-Noticia relacionada: Cesó lluvia e inicia limpieza en Puerto Cabezasa

16:03 | Huracán Félix “perdona” a RAAS
La Región Autónoma del Atlántico Sur, RAAS, no sufrió las secuelas del paso del huracán “Félix”. Sin embargo, se evacuaron unas 200 familias de los municipios de la Laguna de Perla y de la desembocadura de río Grande de Matagalpa, para...

Foto 16:13 | Capital de Honduras en “alerta roja”
Tegucigalpa, la capital de Honduras, se encuentra en "alerta roja", de emergencia, ante las fuertes lluvias del huracán "Félix" que azotarán hoy y mañana la región oriental y centro de este país centroamericano. La "alerta...

[Derek Ortt]

the dirunal max is now the daytime

The max at night is over water, the max over land is the daytime. It is because the land is warmer than the air during the day, allowing for instability. Since the water does not cool as much at night, the water is warmer than the air at night

[RDTF]

Looks like very densely populated areas of El Salvador are being hit hard by this too. The coming weeks look to be devastating for this part of central America.

thoughts and prayers for our JTF-Bravo (at Soto Cano AB in Honduras), as they conduct search and rescue. A great group of guys!

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ ... -bravo.htm