Hurricane Félix: RECON Discussion

[pojo]

What is up with the loops en route to a storm?

I'm thinking it might be some sort of final aircraft/systems check before they in the thick stuff - it's just a guess - but it's the kind of thing that I would do as part of my routine.

it may have been lightning to cause the deviation... yes lightning... I'll find out when the crews hit the ground tonight.

[gotoman38]

What is up with the loops en route to a storm?

I'm thinking it might be some sort of final aircraft/systems check before they in the thick stuff - it's just a guess - but it's the kind of thing that I would do as part of my routine.

it may have been lightning to cause the deviation... yes lightning... I'll find out when the crews hit the ground tonight.

Lightning is certainly a good reason to divert - but they've done it on at least 3 missions on Felix so far, and only on the initial approach from what I've noticed. Seems to be a pattern.

Good to hear from you Pojo! Here's hoping that you and all of the HH crews and others working with you are holding up well with this intense schedule!

[Recurve]

My speculation is meaningless of course, it'll be great if Pojo can fill us in
it seemed like the recon track last night , if you turned the obs around in GE it was a grid or spiral like for sampling an area or dropping a sonde after zeroing in on something. Just a dumb guess though. Because the sat was in blackout I couldn't be sure whether that grid was inside the eye or in a band outside it.
Thanks to everyone posting the recon data. And thanks to the crews of course. Doing amazing duty.

[x-y-no]

Definite double eyewall now ...

185400 1401N 07842W 6964 03089 9977 +086 +086 214059 060 064 007 00
185430 1403N 07843W 6965 03071 9974 +077 +077 210064 067 066 008 00
185500 1405N 07844W 6972 03052 9950 +085 +085 207069 071 066 024 03
185530 1407N 07845W 6966 03042 9940 +078 +078 204075 079 070 010 00
185600 1408N 07846W 6965 03024 9904 +085 +085 206085 088 075 008 03
185630 1410N 07847W 6965 02986 9878 +078 +078 204093 094 080 009 00
185700 1411N 07849W 6971 02951 9832 +089 +089 206090 090 080 009 00
185730 1412N 07850W 6962 02923 9777 +097 +097 208090 093 085 004 00
185800 1413N 07851W 6965 02865 9697 +115 +115 214093 095 091 000 00
185830 1415N 07853W 6951 02823 9626 +120 +120 208083 093 092 002 00
185900 1416N 07854W 6983 02734 9561 +131 +131 201049 058 080 004 00

...

190200 1420N 07903W 7000 02773 9566 +199 +114 015081 082 096 023 03
190230 1420N 07904W 6950 02878 9663 +138 +133 026092 102 088 040 03
190300 1421N 07905W 6985 02879 9717 +132 +116 025087 089 087 032 00

EDIT: (correction)

As RL3AO pointed out, I somehow missed seeing the eye ...

[RL3AO]

Definite double eyewall now ...

It passed through the center. I don't think there is a double eyewall.

[x-y-no]

Definite double eyewall now ...

It passed through the center. I don't think there is a double eyewall.

Both parts I quoted were on the outbound leg.

EDIT: You're right, I'm wrong,

Sheesh ... getting punchy or something.

[gotoman38]

Looks like they're headed S now for another pass - I guess that scrubbing those NOAA missions has extended the USAF ones.

[brunota2003]

NOAA2 & NOAA3 are heading back.... NOAA3 is airworthy to get home... then its most likely grounded (we do that to our planes from time to time.)

Felix is getting to far out from St. Croix... hence the reason why the cutbacks for both fleet.... we should actually be flying out of Keesler... but we aren't.

I couldn't tell you what happened on the aircraft (NOAA3) even though I knew... we found out almost instantly from CARCAH when it happened and knew they were on their way back..... the Aircraft Commander made the decision to come back to St. Croix because of safety. P3 are 30 years old.... structurally, they can't handle more than +3Gs/-2Gs....

Well, good to hear it is airworthy, but I'm sure they will still be checking things out closer than usual. As for the 3/2, at least I got something right...Hopefully we have no more hurricanes that push the limits of the P-3's, eventually luck and strength of the aircraft wont be with us and I'm afraid of what just may happen...

[pojo]

it was actually NOAA42 that got abort... NOAA43 is ok.

[RL3AO]

Weird flight path. They went north over Puerto Rico and then crossed over southern Dominican Republic.

[artist]

what is the 03 at the end of the obs this time around? I don't remember that in the past.

[Coredesat]

They are really taking their time this time around.

[wxmann_91]

Of important note... very cold cloud tops are reappearing over the eyewall of Felix. We all know what cold cloud tops (strong thunderstorms) did during an earlier flight...

Hopefully the Hunters will be okay.

[Chacor]

what is the 03 at the end of the obs this time around? I don't remember that in the past.

Suspect data in SFMR if I remember correctly.

[artist]

then the entire last obs were suspect. That's not good.

[dwsqos2]

Not every AF plane is equipped with SFMR, and unless terribly mistaken, this is one such plane. Consequently, every value is suspect.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Here is my thinking of what recon will find before hand.

936 millibars with 152 knots in the northeast quad at flight level.

[artist]

ok - I found it -I still am not sure what it means though -

03 Both lat/lon and GA/PS questionable

[artist]

pojo - are you around?

[Normandy]

Should be noted that since convection is quite intense in Felix, the reduction factor could be greater than the standard 90%.