Invest 98L,Central Atlantic

[CrazyC83]

Let's say 98L develops into something...who's to say it wouldn't take a similar path as Dean and Felix? This was once at a relatively high latitude and has drifted to a very low latitude, getting very near to where both D&F got their start.

because that high pressure system can't last forever and it's way overdue to show a weakness...I just can't fathom 3 storms following the exact same path due to a high protecting the gulf for this long..Something has to give and it will give soon...the US can only be protected for so long.

But that high seems to be going nowhere fast...unless that low in the Gulf Stream off the GA coast can quickly develop and weaken the ridge, this will be an evil trifecta (Dean, Felix, Gabrielle?)

[NONAME]

231
WHXX01 KWBC 030053
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0053 UTC MON SEP 3 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982007) 20070903 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070903 0000 070903 1200 070904 0000 070904 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.4N 39.2W 11.3N 40.3W 11.1N 41.1W 10.7N 42.1W
BAMD 11.4N 39.2W 11.3N 41.1W 11.3N 43.1W 11.4N 45.0W
BAMM 11.4N 39.2W 11.3N 40.8W 11.3N 42.3W 11.3N 43.8W
LBAR 11.4N 39.2W 11.2N 40.8W 11.2N 42.4W 11.3N 44.2W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070905 0000 070906 0000 070907 0000 070908 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.6N 42.9W 11.3N 43.6W 13.1N 44.3W 16.0N 47.6W
BAMD 11.5N 46.9W 11.9N 50.6W 12.6N 54.3W 13.5N 57.6W
BAMM 11.5N 45.1W 12.3N 47.9W 13.3N 50.7W 14.6N 53.6W
LBAR 11.7N 46.0W 12.7N 49.7W 13.7N 53.8W 14.2N 57.3W
SHIP 28KTS 35KTS 37KTS 39KTS
DSHP 28KTS 35KTS 37KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.4N LONCUR = 39.2W DIRCUR = 240DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 38.7W DIRM12 = 245DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 37.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/07090300

[Fego]

I'm tired... may be that is the reason why I see a west movement.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
edited to add image loop.

[Windspeed]

From the recon discussion thread:

The cloud tops are warmer=less able to transport the winds down.

Wanted to bring it here to avoid getting off topic over there. Sorry, hope my reply of "staying on topic" didn't sound obtuse. To be clear, the cloud tops are plenty cool to represent an intense eyewall. I can assure you winds are getting down to the surface. Yes, the difference between a large band of -65 and a large band of -75ºC cloud tops are certainly negligible, but not to the point of missrepresenting the intensity of convection in the eyewall. The idea is we have also not had a new AVN image since 3:45utc, so the -75C tops may have expanded again, but point on, it's not as if the CDO is falling apart. Winds are getting to the surface. I suspect we will see 145+kt winds in the NE eyewall represented at the surface once they penetrate it.

EDIT: *IF* they penetrate it....

[Fego]

From the recon discussion thread:

The cloud tops are warmer=less able to transport the winds down.

Wanted to bring it here to avoid getting off topic over there. Sorry, hope my reply of "staying on topic" didn't sound obtuse. To be clear, the cloud tops are plenty cool to represent an intense eyewall. I can assure you winds are getting down to the surface. Yes, the difference between a large band of -65 and a large band of -75ºC cloud tops are certainly negligible, but not to the point of missrepresenting the intensity of convection in the eyewall. The idea is we have also not had a new AVN image since 3:45utc, so the -75C tops may have expanded again, but point on, it's not as if the CDO is falling apart. Winds are getting to the surface. I suspect we will see 145+kt winds in the NE eyewall represented at the surface once they penetrate it.

EDIT: *IF* they penetrate it....

Are you sure that you wanted to post that comment here? (Invest 98L )

[RL3AO]

From the recon discussion thread:

The cloud tops are warmer=less able to transport the winds down.

Wanted to bring it here to avoid getting off topic over there. Sorry, hope my reply of "staying on topic" didn't sound obtuse. To be clear, the cloud tops are plenty cool to represent an intense eyewall. I can assure you winds are getting down to the surface. Yes, the difference between a large band of -65 and a large band of -75ºC cloud tops are certainly negligible, but not to the point of missrepresenting the intensity of convection in the eyewall. The idea is we have also not had a new AVN image since 3:45utc, so the -75C tops may have expanded again, but point on, it's not as if the CDO is falling apart. Winds are getting to the surface. I suspect we will see 145+kt winds in the NE eyewall represented at the surface once they penetrate it.

EDIT: *IF* they penetrate it....

Anyway, I think you have the wrong thread.

[Windspeed]

*sigh*....seems I need to go to sleep.

Yes, that was a total screw up. I'll copy and paste that in the correct thread and call it an evening.

[Epsilon_Fan]

Quagmire... that gave me a laugh right there I can imagine a Family Guy...

Peter: "Quagmire, have you slept with everyone you've met?"
Quagmire: "Not everytime Peter... remember that time I tried to penetrate Invest 98L?"
<insert flashback here>

[windstorm99]

Convection still fireing up....

[windstorm99]

NHC-530am

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT
HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAINS LIMITED AND
DISORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-DEFINED
AND THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The shear is down to 8-11 knots over this system. With 5-10 knot decreases every 24 hours....So it is becoming favorable.

[caneman]

Looks more impressive this AM. Hope this isn't a trifecta for some of the same hard hit areas.

[cycloneye]

The low center still is not beneath ther convection.If you look to the right of the cloud mass,the swirl can be seen.

[caneman]

Cyc,

Yeah but convection is once again building and in a circular fashion nearer to the LLc as oppossed to yesterday where is was more linear. I think shear has decreased and it may now have a chance.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah it has to deal with eastly shear from the base of the subtropical high pressure. In which case if it wents to develop it will have to start moving at least as fast as Dean and Felix did.

[Roswell_Atup]

I now give it a 50% to becoming Gabrielle....

[punkyg]

I think today 98L will show signs of development
now that the shear has relaxed. oh and i hope the high starts to break down so the storm can move more northward. those people in central america need a break.

[Roswell_Atup]

I think today 98L will show signs of development
now that the shear has relaxed. oh and i hope the high starts to break down so the storm can move more northward. those people in central america need a break.

i second the motion

[cycloneye]

A 1012 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS CENTERED NEAR 11N40W MOVING
GENERALLY SW NEAR 5 KT. THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
DISPLACED W OF THE LOW FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 41W-44W. THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-DEFINED ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME BUT THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
WALLACE

8 AM discussion.

[HURAKAN]

COPY & PASTE. SAME STORY.