Invest 98L: Global & BAM Models

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1231 UTC SAT SEP 1 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982007) 20070901 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070901 1200 070902 0000 070902 1200 070903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 36.0W 13.7N 38.3W 13.9N 40.6W 14.0N 43.0W
BAMD 13.5N 36.0W 13.8N 39.0W 13.9N 41.9W 14.0N 44.7W
BAMM 13.5N 36.0W 13.6N 38.2W 13.6N 40.6W 13.6N 42.8W
LBAR 13.5N 36.0W 13.6N 38.7W 13.8N 41.4W 14.1N 43.9W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070903 1200 070904 1200 070905 1200 070906 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.1N 45.6W 14.8N 50.5W 15.4N 55.8W 15.8N 61.0W
BAMD 14.1N 47.4W 14.9N 52.7W 15.7N 58.1W 16.2N 63.7W
BAMM 13.4N 45.0W 13.4N 49.6W 13.5N 54.2W 13.7N 58.9W
LBAR 14.4N 46.6W 15.0N 51.6W 14.9N 55.9W 12.2N 58.2W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 36.0W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 33.5W DIRM12 = 264DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 31.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

011351
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1351 UTC SAT SEP 1 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982007) 20070901 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070901 1200 070902 0000 070902 1200 070903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 36.0W 13.7N 38.3W 13.9N 40.6W 14.0N 43.0W
BAMD 13.5N 36.0W 13.8N 39.0W 13.9N 41.9W 14.0N 44.7W
BAMM 13.5N 36.0W 13.6N 38.2W 13.6N 40.6W 13.6N 42.8W
LBAR 13.5N 36.0W 13.6N 38.7W 13.8N 41.4W 14.1N 43.9W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 30KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 30KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070903 1200 070904 1200 070905 1200 070906 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.1N 45.6W 14.8N 50.5W 15.4N 55.8W 15.8N 61.0W
BAMD 14.1N 47.4W 14.9N 52.7W 15.7N 58.1W 16.2N 63.7W
BAMM 13.4N 45.0W 13.4N 49.6W 13.5N 54.2W 13.7N 58.9W
LBAR 14.4N 46.6W 15.0N 51.6W 14.9N 55.9W 12.2N 58.2W
SHIP 40KTS 45KTS 50KTS 57KTS
DSHP 40KTS 45KTS 50KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 36.0W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 33.5W DIRM12 = 264DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 31.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

The 12:00z BAMS with the SHIP intensity guidance that was not in the first release.

[cycloneye]

758
WHXX04 KWBC 011719
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 98L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 1

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.2 36.2 265./13.0
6 13.3 37.3 273./10.9
12 13.0 38.3 253./10.6
18 12.8 39.2 257./ 8.8
24 12.5 40.3 258./10.7
30 12.5 41.2 266./ 8.9
36 11.9 42.1 238./10.1
42 11.6 42.5 230./ 5.5
48 11.6 43.1 275./ 6.1
54 11.4 43.7 256./ 6.4
60 11.5 44.1 280./ 3.5
66 11.7 44.8 283./ 7.2
72 12.0 45.5 297./ 7.2
78 12.4 46.5 291./10.7
84 12.8 47.0 307./ 6.8
90 13.3 48.0 295./10.8
96 13.7 49.1 295./11.0
102 14.0 50.2 284./11.1
108 14.2 51.1 284./ 9.5
114 14.3 52.4 273./12.2
120 14.5 53.5 281./10.8
126 14.7 54.8 276./12.4


12z GFDL.

[cycloneye]

According to that GFDL track is another westward journey for another system,but the difference is that this one is more north in latitud.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 011830
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1830 UTC SAT SEP 1 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982007) 20070901 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070901 1800 070902 0600 070902 1800 070903 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.4N 36.9W 13.6N 39.2W 13.8N 41.2W 13.8N 43.0W
BAMD 13.4N 36.9W 13.6N 39.9W 13.7N 42.6W 13.7N 45.1W
BAMM 13.4N 36.9W 13.5N 39.2W 13.6N 41.3W 13.5N 43.3W
LBAR 13.4N 36.9W 13.4N 39.3W 13.5N 41.7W 13.7N 44.2W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 32KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 32KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070903 1800 070904 1800 070905 1800 070906 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.9N 44.8W 13.8N 48.5W 13.7N 52.8W 13.8N 56.7W
BAMD 13.7N 47.5W 13.8N 52.3W 13.6N 57.3W 13.1N 62.5W
BAMM 13.4N 45.3W 13.3N 49.3W 13.3N 53.4W 13.6N 57.6W
LBAR 14.0N 46.6W 14.2N 51.5W 13.9N 55.6W 12.5N 57.8W
SHIP 38KTS 43KTS 49KTS 55KTS
DSHP 38KTS 43KTS 49KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.4N LONCUR = 36.9W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 13.6N LONM12 = 34.8W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 13.9N LONM24 = 32.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
18:00z BAM Models for 98L.Westbound.

[hurricanetrack]

Like I said in another post, these late bloomers coming west through the Caribbean can't all go to Central America. Sooner or later one will turn more north and could cause problems for the Greater Antilles or eventually the Gulf Coast of the U.S. Obviously this is not a given and what is to say that all development won't go in to Central America? Still, the odds are that if you keep shooting, you will eventually hit your target- or at least get closer to it.

September seems like it will be a very busy month- right on cue with what CSU was predicting.

[hurricanetrack]

Oh, and by the way, we're not even in a favorable MJO yet! What's the deal with that?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/g ... thly_1.gif

[cycloneye]

12z CMC



Well,we know that CMC has been bonkers this year with many systems in the past months.If all the systems that CMC had developed had been a reallity,the 2007 season would be in the greek alphabet.But I am posting this for some entretainment.It shows distint areas from off the East Coast of U.S.to 98L and east of that.

[canegrl04]

Where is GFS on invest 7?

[cycloneye]

Where is GFS on invest 7?

GFS so far does not show this system.

[cycloneye]

HWRF Model Animation



It moves mainly west while it slowly gains strengh.

[HURAKAN]

Luis, I think it underestimates the future intensity of 98L.

[canegrl04]

Where is GFS on invest 7?

GFS so far does not show this system.

They don't seem to be very good at recognizing development,as demonstrated with Felix

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 012323
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 98L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 1

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.1 36.8 265./11.1
6 13.2 38.1 276./13.1
12 12.9 39.1 254./10.5
18 12.7 40.5 260./13.4
24 12.4 41.4 254./ 9.7
30 12.1 42.2 253./ 8.1
36 12.0 43.1 260./ 8.5
42 11.6 44.1 248./10.6
48 11.4 44.8 251./ 7.0
54 11.5 45.7 277./ 8.7
60 11.3 46.3 259./ 6.4
66 11.5 47.5 279./12.3
72 11.8 48.7 281./12.0
78 11.9 49.8 277./10.1
84 12.3 50.9 288./11.6
90 12.7 52.3 286./13.9
96 12.9 53.3 285./10.3
102 13.1 54.5 276./11.6
108 13.1 55.8 270./12.9
114 13.3 56.8 283./ 9.9
120 13.6 57.8 289./10.0
126 13.4 59.0 262./12.2


http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/07090123

18z GFDL is Caribbean bound.

[canegrl04]

WHXX04 KWBC 012323
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 98L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 1

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.1 36.8 265./11.1
6 13.2 38.1 276./13.1
12 12.9 39.1 254./10.5
18 12.7 40.5 260./13.4
24 12.4 41.4 254./ 9.7
30 12.1 42.2 253./ 8.1
36 12.0 43.1 260./ 8.5
42 11.6 44.1 248./10.6
48 11.4 44.8 251./ 7.0
54 11.5 45.7 277./ 8.7
60 11.3 46.3 259./ 6.4
66 11.5 47.5 279./12.3
72 11.8 48.7 281./12.0
78 11.9 49.8 277./10.1
84 12.3 50.9 288./11.6
90 12.7 52.3 286./13.9
96 12.9 53.3 285./10.3
102 13.1 54.5 276./11.6
108 13.1 55.8 270./12.9
114 13.3 56.8 283./ 9.9
120 13.6 57.8 289./10.0
126 13.4 59.0 262./12.2


http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/07090123

18z GFDL is Caribbean bound.

At the end of the run GFDL has this system at Lat. 17,Lon. 93 and traveling at 11kts

[Blown Away]

WHXX04 KWBC 012323
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 98L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 1

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.1 36.8 265./11.1
6 13.2 38.1 276./13.1
12 12.9 39.1 254./10.5
18 12.7 40.5 260./13.4
24 12.4 41.4 254./ 9.7
30 12.1 42.2 253./ 8.1
36 12.0 43.1 260./ 8.5
42 11.6 44.1 248./10.6
48 11.4 44.8 251./ 7.0
54 11.5 45.7 277./ 8.7
60 11.3 46.3 259./ 6.4
66 11.5 47.5 279./12.3
72 11.8 48.7 281./12.0
78 11.9 49.8 277./10.1
84 12.3 50.9 288./11.6
90 12.7 52.3 286./13.9
96 12.9 53.3 285./10.3
102 13.1 54.5 276./11.6
108 13.1 55.8 270./12.9
114 13.3 56.8 283./ 9.9
120 13.6 57.8 289./10.0
126 13.4 59.0 262./12.2


http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/07090123

18z GFDL is Caribbean bound.

At the end of the run GFDL has this system at Lat. 17,Lon. 93 and traveling at 11kts

That is for Felix, not 98L.

[canegrl04]

WHXX04 KWBC 012323
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 98L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 1

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.1 36.8 265./11.1
6 13.2 38.1 276./13.1
12 12.9 39.1 254./10.5
18 12.7 40.5 260./13.4
24 12.4 41.4 254./ 9.7
30 12.1 42.2 253./ 8.1
36 12.0 43.1 260./ 8.5
42 11.6 44.1 248./10.6
48 11.4 44.8 251./ 7.0
54 11.5 45.7 277./ 8.7
60 11.3 46.3 259./ 6.4
66 11.5 47.5 279./12.3
72 11.8 48.7 281./12.0
78 11.9 49.8 277./10.1
84 12.3 50.9 288./11.6
90 12.7 52.3 286./13.9
96 12.9 53.3 285./10.3
102 13.1 54.5 276./11.6
108 13.1 55.8 270./12.9
114 13.3 56.8 283./ 9.9
120 13.6 57.8 289./10.0
126 13.4 59.0 262./12.2


http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/07090123

18z GFDL is Caribbean bound.

At the end of the run GFDL has this system at Lat. 17,Lon. 93 and traveling at 11kts

That is for Felix, not 98L.

oops.My goof

[hial2]

GFDL actually drops ol' 98 2 degrees for a while at the beginning of the run..I don't remember an Atlantic ridge this strong for so long

[windstorm99]

From the look at those surface maps 98L is going for a ride through the caribbean...Its Incredible seeing another system moving through that area.Adrian