Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

#1 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 2:24 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float3.html

Should be 99L very soon.

punkyg · #2 Postby **punkyg** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 2:25 pm

Why you put this up its not an invest yet.

#3 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 2:29 pm

punkyg wrote:Why you put this up its not an invest yet.

It's already in the floaters with Félix and 98L and it's labeled "Invest."

#4 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 2:29 pm

Yes it is.

punkyg · #5 Postby **punkyg** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 2:31 pm

Ok thats fine with me.

so where in this suppose to go.

#6 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 2:37 pm

Now this is going to get lost down the page here. There is about 11 things just on Felix. This is not a big thing right now to many. But it should be. Cause it is sitting over the gulf stream.

punkyg · #7 Postby **punkyg** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 2:41 pm

Is there a possibility this could move sw into north florida.

#8 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 2:42 pm

punkyg wrote:Is there a possibility this could move sw into north florida.

At that latitude the most likely scenario is north, NW, and then NE as a trough picks it up.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #9 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 2:57 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
punkyg wrote:Is there a possibility this could move sw into north florida.

At that latitude the most likely scenario is north, NW, and then NE as a trough picks it up.

Hurakan is there any way I could get good winds from this
if it develops so I can get some windy surf??? Please I'm so
desperate for some crazy surf I think I'll go insane
if there is not big surf soon!!!! Thanks :cheesy:

#10 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 2:59 pm

For the gulf this system shouldn't be any problem. For the east coast you should expect some swells as the system develop but it will depend on its intensity.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #11 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 3:02 pm

HURAKAN wrote:For the gulf this system shouldn't be any problem. For the east coast you should expect some swells as the system develop but it will depend on its intensity.

Lucky east coasters!!! :cheesy:

Sounds like good surf if it develops!!!
Hopefully no damage though

jrod · #12 Postby **jrod** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 3:12 pm

While there is a good circulation, there is not a defined center. When that happens there is no doubt it will be a depresion. I dont thonk a landfall north of north carolina is possible because I dont see any troughs in any forecast for the 5days or so. I know I'll get some surf this week.

#13 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 3:24 pm

HERE IT'S!!!

#14 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 3:26 pm

Website · #15 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 3:27 pm

This area is looking interesting this afternoon.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #16 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 3:28 pm

Based on buoys around this system it has a surface LLC. Also convection is over it, this system looks likely to develop if it keeps doing what its doing.

I would put the center near 30.5/77.5....

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #17 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 3:30 pm

I'd say a tropical depression in 1-2 days it is organized
has convection over the LLC and is moving
over the gulf stream with favorable conditions.

vacanechaser · #18 Postby **vacanechaser** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 3:35 pm

heres the 2:05pm

A LOW PRES AREA IS OFF THE GEORGIA COASTLINE CENTERED NEAR
31N79W...ESTIMATED TO BE 1013 MB. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION WITH LOW-LEVEL TURNING
EASILY APPARENT. AT THE MOMENT...THIS LOW IS STILL SOMEWHAT
FRONTAL IN NATURE WITH A SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS LINEARLY SHAPED TO
THE E OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SLOW TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM
MOSTLY TO THE E OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

jrod · #19 Postby **jrod** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 3:36 pm

It has a circulation, but there is not a defined LLC just a broad and maybe elongated circulation, imo based on the satellite.

vacanechaser · #20 Postby **vacanechaser** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 3:37 pm

models

375
WHXX01 KWBC 032030
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2030 UTC MON SEP 3 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070903 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070903 1800 070904 0600 070904 1800 070905 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.7N 78.4W 30.4N 78.3W 30.1N 78.4W 29.6N 78.8W
BAMD 30.7N 78.4W 29.9N 77.7W 29.1N 77.0W 28.6N 76.2W
BAMM 30.7N 78.4W 30.1N 78.1W 29.6N 77.7W 29.2N 77.7W
LBAR 30.7N 78.4W 30.3N 77.2W 30.3N 76.4W 30.6N 75.6W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070905 1800 070906 1800 070907 1800 070908 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.4N 79.8W 30.1N 83.6W 33.0N 86.6W 36.0N 87.0W
BAMD 28.9N 75.5W 28.6N 76.4W 28.1N 78.3W 28.4N 79.7W
BAMM 29.0N 78.1W 28.8N 80.1W 28.9N 82.6W 29.2N 84.0W
LBAR 31.4N 74.8W 33.1N 72.3W 34.5N 67.7W 37.2N 64.3W
SHIP 51KTS 51KTS 52KTS 50KTS
DSHP 51KTS 51KTS 31KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.7N LONCUR = 78.4W DIRCUR = 90DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 30.7N LONM12 = 79.6W DIRM12 = 90DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 30.7N LONM24 = 81.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

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