Tropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Global & BAM Models

[HURAKAN]

No one is perfect but it shows how patience pays at the end. I love to track hurricanes, but most hurricanes most go through the disturbance stage before becoming the beauty that satellite images present. 99L yesterday had a vigorous LLC and the forecast was for conditions to become more favorable for development. Most people decided to throw the towel and the "dead posts" rained. Many, including myself, stayed subordinate to 99L and we just asked for 24 more hours. We got those 24 hours and 99L payed back. In the future you may want to reconsider posting "dead posts" when a disturbance is not looking its best, especially in September and a few days from the peak of the season. I have learned a lot from waiting, and others may to the same!!!

[vacanechaser]

No one is perfect but it shows how patience pays at the end. I love to track hurricanes, but most hurricanes most go through the disturbance stage before becoming the beauty that satellite images present. 99L yesterday had a vigorous LLC and the forecast was for conditions to become more favorable for development. Most people decided to throw the towel and the "dead posts" rained. Many, including myself, stayed subordinate to 99L and we just asked for 24 more hours. We got those 24 hours and 99L payed back. In the future you may want to reconsider posting "dead posts" when a disturbance is not looking its best, especially in September and a few days from the peak of the season. I have learned a lot from waiting, and others may to the same!!!

you can forget that... not getting the dead posts.... there is always someone here who is going to do no matter what.. to bait, or they really believe it... its going to happen...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurrciane Intercept Research Team

[cycloneye]

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 7



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 29.0 70.1 355./ 5.0

6 29.2 71.0 282./ 8.4

12 29.7 72.0 297./ 9.4

18 30.4 72.9 303./10.5

24 31.1 74.3 298./13.9

30 31.8 75.9 292./15.1

36 31.8 77.3 271./12.1

42 32.1 78.1 291./ 7.3

48 32.2 79.0 280./ 7.4

54 32.5 79.7 293./ 6.8

60 32.8 80.3 294./ 5.7

66 33.1 81.0 292./ 6.6

72 33.5 81.4 315./ 4.7

78 33.9 81.5 343./ 4.6

84 34.4 81.2 38./ 5.5

90 35.1 80.4 44./ 9.5

96 36.0 79.1 57./13.9

102 36.8 77.2 65./17.8

108 37.5 75.0 73./18.8

114 38.6 72.1 70./24.9

120 40.2 69.0 63./28.4

126 42.0 65.8 61./30.1

12z GFDL has landfall in SC.

[HURAKAN]

849
WHXX01 KWBC 071853
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1853 UTC FRI SEP 7 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070907 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070907 1800 070908 0600 070908 1800 070909 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.5N 70.8W 30.3N 72.5W 31.2N 74.2W 32.2N 75.8W
BAMD 29.5N 70.8W 30.7N 72.5W 32.1N 74.7W 33.1N 76.4W
BAMM 29.5N 70.8W 30.3N 72.5W 31.4N 74.5W 32.5N 76.3W
LBAR 29.5N 70.8W 30.3N 72.0W 31.3N 73.1W 32.6N 73.9W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 48KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070909 1800 070910 1800 070911 1800 070912 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.3N 77.2W 35.7N 76.8W 37.4N 69.3W 37.4N 60.9W
BAMD 34.0N 77.4W 35.7N 75.8W 37.1N 66.6W 35.9N 59.0W
BAMM 33.7N 77.6W 36.5N 75.8W 38.9N 64.2W 39.2N 52.8W
LBAR 34.1N 74.4W 36.6N 72.3W 38.4N 66.3W 38.5N 59.5W
SHIP 51KTS 53KTS 54KTS 47KTS
DSHP 51KTS 35KTS 36KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.5N LONCUR = 70.8W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 28.4N LONM12 = 70.0W DIRM12 = 355DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 28.4N LONM24 = 69.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN



For what it's worth. RECON will have the final word.

[Thunder44]

I don't think they will wait for the plane to get there. It doesn't look like it will get there until after 4pm.

[Thunder44]

12z ECMWF:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[HURAKAN]

611
WHXX01 KWBC 080045
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0045 UTC SAT SEP 8 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070908 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070908 0000 070908 1200 070909 0000 070909 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.1N 71.7W 31.0N 73.4W 32.0N 74.9W 33.1N 76.1W
BAMD 30.1N 71.7W 31.3N 73.7W 32.5N 75.8W 33.3N 77.5W
BAMM 30.1N 71.7W 31.1N 73.4W 32.3N 75.1W 33.7N 76.2W
LBAR 30.1N 71.7W 31.3N 73.2W 32.4N 74.5W 34.1N 75.3W
SHIP 40KTS 49KTS 57KTS 61KTS
DSHP 40KTS 49KTS 57KTS 61KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070910 0000 070911 0000 070912 0000 070913 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 34.6N 76.4W 36.9N 73.3W 39.1N 65.1W 39.0N 57.5W
BAMD 34.1N 78.5W 36.5N 76.9W 41.7N 63.3W 43.8N 46.7W
BAMM 35.4N 76.0W 37.7N 70.9W 40.2N 61.5W 40.9N 52.1W
LBAR 35.6N 75.2W 38.4N 70.1W 40.8N 60.8W 40.2N 53.7W
SHIP 63KTS 66KTS 59KTS 45KTS
DSHP 47KTS 38KTS 31KTS 18KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.1N LONCUR = 71.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 29.1N LONM12 = 70.1W DIRM12 = 328DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 28.0N LONM24 = 70.0W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 85NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 90NM

$$
NNNN


40 knts, 1011 mb

[Thunder44]

747
WHXX01 KWBC 081213
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1213 UTC SAT SEP 8 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE GABRIELLE (AL072007) 20070908 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070908 1200 070909 0000 070909 1200 070910 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.2N 73.8W 32.1N 75.0W 33.2N 75.6W 34.6N 75.3W
BAMD 31.2N 73.8W 32.6N 75.1W 33.6N 75.9W 34.4N 75.5W
BAMM 31.2N 73.8W 32.4N 74.9W 33.7N 75.5W 35.2N 74.6W
LBAR 31.2N 73.8W 32.6N 75.2W 34.0N 76.0W 35.8N 75.8W
SHIP 40KTS 44KTS 47KTS 50KTS
DSHP 40KTS 44KTS 47KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070910 1200 070911 1200 070912 1200 070913 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 35.6N 74.1W 37.2N 69.3W 38.9N 59.6W 37.0N 51.6W
BAMD 34.9N 74.1W 35.6N 69.2W 37.3N 60.3W 36.0N 53.1W
BAMM 36.2N 72.5W 37.3N 66.1W 39.5N 56.7W 38.1N 47.0W
LBAR 37.4N 74.0W 40.4N 66.6W 41.1N 56.9W 40.6N 47.7W
SHIP 52KTS 53KTS 59KTS 45KTS
DSHP 52KTS 53KTS 59KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.2N LONCUR = 73.8W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 30.1N LONM12 = 71.7W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 29.1N LONM24 = 70.1W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 100NM

$$
NNNN


12z Still Subtropical Cyclone Gabrielle at 40kts

[cheezyWXguy]

747
WHXX01 KWBC 081213
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1213 UTC SAT SEP 8 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE GABRIELLE (AL072007) 20070908 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070908 1200 070909 0000 070909 1200 070910 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.2N 73.8W 32.1N 75.0W 33.2N 75.6W 34.6N 75.3W
BAMD 31.2N 73.8W 32.6N 75.1W 33.6N 75.9W 34.4N 75.5W
BAMM 31.2N 73.8W 32.4N 74.9W 33.7N 75.5W 35.2N 74.6W
LBAR 31.2N 73.8W 32.6N 75.2W 34.0N 76.0W 35.8N 75.8W
SHIP 40KTS 44KTS 47KTS 50KTS
DSHP 40KTS 44KTS 47KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070910 1200 070911 1200 070912 1200 070913 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 35.6N 74.1W 37.2N 69.3W 38.9N 59.6W 37.0N 51.6W
BAMD 34.9N 74.1W 35.6N 69.2W 37.3N 60.3W 36.0N 53.1W
BAMM 36.2N 72.5W 37.3N 66.1W 39.5N 56.7W 38.1N 47.0W
LBAR 37.4N 74.0W 40.4N 66.6W 41.1N 56.9W 40.6N 47.7W
SHIP 52KTS 53KTS 59KTS 45KTS
DSHP 52KTS 53KTS 59KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.2N LONCUR = 73.8W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 30.1N LONM12 = 71.7W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 29.1N LONM24 = 70.1W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 100NM

$$
NNNN


12z Still Subtropical Cyclone Gabrielle at 40kts

I guess the new BAM models show it skirting the NC coast, out to sea with no landfall

[HURAKAN]

[Thunder44]

12z GFDL shifted further west over NC:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Bane]

that would be good news for the drought, but i don't see it happening.

[wxman57]

12z GFDL shifted further west over NC:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

GFDL has been one of the worst models in 2007. Look how it initialized the movement toward 305 deg. at 9.9 kts. Gabrielle is already tracking well east of the GFDL forecast. I've measured a 2-hr movement from 1532Z-1732Z. Toward 3.8 degrees and 27.7 miles. That's 12kts (14 mph) to the north. Well east of NHC's and my track now. I estimate the center will cross 32N near 74.1 or 74.2W longitude. That's about 0.8 to 0.9 deg. east of the morning tracks.

[HURAKAN]

937
WHXX04 KWBC 081718
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE 07L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 8

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 31.1 73.9 305./ 9.9
6 31.6 74.4 318./ 6.6
12 32.2 75.3 308./ 9.9
18 32.7 76.1 300./ 8.7
24 33.2 76.7 310./ 7.2
30 33.9 76.9 342./ 6.5
36 34.4 77.1 342./ 5.2
42 34.9 77.1 5./ 4.8
48 35.3 76.6 51./ 5.9
54 35.7 76.2 39./ 5.4
60 36.2 75.1 67./ 9.6
66 36.7 73.9 65./11.2
72 37.6 72.0 67./17.6
78 38.7 69.6 65./22.3
84 40.2 66.7 63./26.2
90 42.1 63.2 62./32.6
96 44.3 58.5 65./40.3
102 47.1 53.6 60./44.9
108 49.9 48.4 61./44.4

STORM DISSIPATED AT 108 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[Thunder44]

12z GFDL shifted further west over NC:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

GFDL has been one of the worst models in 2007. Look how it initialized the movement toward 305 deg. at 9.9 kts. Gabrielle is already tracking well east of the GFDL forecast. I've measured a 2-hr movement from 1532Z-1732Z. Toward 3.8 degrees and 27.7 miles. That's 12kts (14 mph) to the north. Well east of NHC's and my track now. I estimate the center will cross 32N near 74.1 or 74.2W longitude. That's about 0.8 to 0.9 deg. east of the morning tracks.

I just looked at the 12z GFS, UKMET, and CMC and they all show tracks across NC too. The NHC also from 2pm Advisory believes it still moving generally NW, with the short-term movement being erractic. If there is a further east track taking place the models aren't seeing it this afternoon.

[wxman57]

12z GFDL shifted further west over NC:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

GFDL has been one of the worst models in 2007. Look how it initialized the movement toward 305 deg. at 9.9 kts. Gabrielle is already tracking well east of the GFDL forecast. I've measured a 2-hr movement from 1532Z-1732Z. Toward 3.8 degrees and 27.7 miles. That's 12kts (14 mph) to the north. Well east of NHC's and my track now. I estimate the center will cross 32N near 74.1 or 74.2W longitude. That's about 0.8 to 0.9 deg. east of the morning tracks.

I just looked at the 12z GFS, UKMET, and CMC and they all show tracks across NC too. The NHC also from 2pm Advisory believes it still moving generally NW, with the short-term movement being erractic. If there is a further east track taking place the models aren't seeing it this afternoon.

The 12Z models weren't initialized with the current position and movement, so they'll be in error. My new track takes the center about 60 miles east of Cape Hatteras this time tomorrow. There is no general NW movement since 6 hours ago. It's all north. NHC will be adjusting their 3pm track farther offshore.

[HURAKAN]

583
WHXX01 KWBC 081829
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1829 UTC SAT SEP 8 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE GABRIELLE (AL072007) 20070908 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070908 1800 070909 0600 070909 1800 070910 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.8N 74.1W 32.9N 75.2W 34.4N 75.9W 35.9N 75.0W
BAMD 31.8N 74.1W 33.2N 75.3W 34.3N 75.7W 35.3N 74.8W
BAMM 31.8N 74.1W 33.2N 75.3W 34.8N 75.7W 36.4N 74.3W
LBAR 31.8N 74.1W 33.1N 74.9W 34.6N 75.4W 36.0N 74.6W
SHIP 40KTS 42KTS 44KTS 46KTS
DSHP 40KTS 42KTS 44KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070910 1800 070911 1800 070912 1800 070913 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 37.2N 73.2W 39.7N 67.0W 44.4N 57.2W 45.7N 47.0W
BAMD 35.9N 72.9W 37.3N 66.7W 40.9N 57.0W 41.9N 46.0W
BAMM 37.5N 71.7W 39.4N 63.9W 43.5N 53.9W 45.0N 43.6W
LBAR 37.7N 72.7W 40.3N 65.3W 42.3N 56.4W 43.6N 45.8W
SHIP 47KTS 50KTS 52KTS 40KTS
DSHP 47KTS 50KTS 52KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.8N LONCUR = 74.1W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 30.6N LONM12 = 73.0W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 29.5N LONM24 = 70.8W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 90NM

$$
NNNN

[Thunder44]

936
WHXX01 KWBC 090052
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0052 UTC SUN SEP 9 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GABRIELLE (AL072007) 20070909 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070909 0000 070909 1200 070910 0000 070910 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.7N 75.4W 33.8N 76.0W 35.3N 75.5W 36.4N 74.0W
BAMD 32.7N 75.4W 33.7N 76.2W 34.6N 75.9W 35.1N 74.5W
BAMM 32.7N 75.4W 34.0N 76.0W 35.4N 75.1W 36.4N 73.1W
LBAR 32.7N 75.4W 34.2N 76.3W 35.7N 76.2W 37.1N 74.9W
SHIP 35KTS 35KTS 36KTS 39KTS
DSHP 35KTS 35KTS 32KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070911 0000 070912 0000 070913 0000 070914 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 37.1N 71.9W 39.1N 65.1W 40.2N 53.6W 39.3N 47.3W
BAMD 35.3N 72.4W 35.8N 66.5W 35.8N 59.8W 34.9N 58.0W
BAMM 37.0N 70.3W 38.2N 63.1W 39.1N 52.8W 37.7N 47.1W
LBAR 38.9N 72.3W 41.4N 63.9W 42.1N 52.4W .0N .0W
SHIP 40KTS 39KTS 55KTS 55KTS
DSHP 40KTS 39KTS 53KTS 53KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.7N LONCUR = 75.4W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 31.2N LONM12 = 73.8W DIRM12 = 312DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 30.1N LONM24 = 71.7W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 90NM

$$
NNNN