Tropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Global & BAM Models

[Brent]

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I was just looking for it.

[Recurve]

Being so disorganized today,they didnt runs at those times.

"Being so disorganized today...." -- the models, or the "system"?

I imagine the models having a hard time getting organized, like, "Where's my bogussing scheme?! My grids are all off-kilter! I can't run like this."

Sorry to be a grammar nerd.

[fasterdisaster]

Being so disorganized today,they didnt runs at those times.

"Being so disorganized today...." -- the models, or the "system"?

I imagine the models having a hard time getting organized, like, "Where's my bogussing scheme?! My grids are all off-kilter! I can't run like this."

Sorry to be a grammar nerd.

[hurricanetrack]

There it is- landfall in SC as a minimal hurricane.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Thunder44]

Here are rest of 0z models this morning:

GFS:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

UKMET:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

CMC:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

NOGAPS:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

HWRF:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

ECMWF:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

I have noticed some of the global models have backed of significant development of system, particulary the GFS, CMC, and ECMWF. The GFDL is most bullish, while the ECMWF no longer has a closed low heading towards Carolina coast. It's getting harder for me to see anything more than a TS out of this system, if it develops at all.

[HURAKAN]

991
WHXX04 KWBC 070522
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 99L

INITIAL TIME 0Z SEP 7

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 28.2 69.4 360./ .0
6 28.4 69.4 349./ 1.5
12 28.7 70.1 292./ 6.5
18 29.1 70.9 297./ 8.8
24 29.7 72.1 296./11.4
30 30.0 73.4 284./12.0
36 30.3 75.1 282./14.5
42 30.2 76.3 266./11.2
48 30.2 77.5 271./ 9.7
54 30.5 78.1 296./ 6.1
60 30.8 78.9 288./ 7.5
66 30.9 79.1 291./ 2.2
72 31.4 79.3 341./ 5.5
78 31.9 79.7 320./ 5.1
84 32.5 79.6 3./ 6.7
90 33.2 79.5 9./ 6.9
96 33.8 79.1 35./ 7.1
102 34.6 78.3 45./ 9.5
108 35.3 77.0 63./13.3
114 36.2 75.3 60./16.4
120 37.1 73.6 64./16.4
126 38.1 71.8 60./17.1

[PhillyWX]

Being so disorganized today,they didnt runs at those times.

I don't think it has anything to do with that.

I believe if it doesn't have a dvorak classification the GFDL will not be run on the storm. 99L had a dvorak classification of 'too weak' for much of yesterday.

[cycloneye]

KWBC 071315
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1315 UTC FRI SEP 7 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070907 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070907 1200 070908 0000 070908 1200 070909 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.1N 70.1W 30.0N 71.3W 31.1N 72.7W 32.4N 74.1W
BAMD 29.1N 70.1W 30.4N 71.1W 31.9N 72.6W 33.5N 74.1W
BAMM 29.1N 70.1W 30.0N 71.3W 31.2N 72.7W 32.5N 74.2W
LBAR 29.1N 70.1W 30.1N 70.6W 31.3N 71.3W 32.5N 71.6W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070909 1200 070910 1200 070911 1200 070912 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.6N 75.1W 36.6N 74.8W 39.4N 69.2W 39.5N 59.3W
BAMD 34.7N 74.9W 36.8N 72.2W 38.2N 65.4W 37.7N 56.3W
BAMM 33.9N 75.3W 37.2N 74.2W 40.9N 65.6W 41.9N 49.3W
LBAR 33.6N 72.0W 35.9N 70.4W 37.1N 66.3W 37.4N 61.9W
SHIP 53KTS 54KTS 53KTS 43KTS
DSHP 53KTS 54KTS 53KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.1N LONCUR = 70.1W DIRCUR = 355DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 28.0N LONM12 = 70.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 28.6N LONM24 = 69.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

1006 mbs,moving NW at 5kts.

[Bane]

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I was just looking for it.

might want to put that thing away.

[Derek Ortt]

thats moving north according to the models, but i likely a center reformation

[Bane]

it'll be interesting to see the intensity forecasts now that something is happening with the system.

[Thunder44]

Being so disorganized today,they didnt runs at those times.

I don't think it has anything to do with that.

I believe if it doesn't have a dvorak classification the GFDL will not be run on the storm. 99L had a dvorak classification of 'too weak' for much of yesterday.

I don't believe it has anything to do with that either. It may have been run yesterday, but some reason it's not being made public.

[KWT]

Yeah thats probably the case derek, it probably re-located closer to the large burst of convection in the early morning.

SHIPS still have 99L at 30kts, wouldn't take much then for it to become a STS/TS if thats the case and still makes it a strong tropical storm.

[chadtm80]

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I was just looking for it.

might want to put that thing away.

And Gag all the Fat Ladies

[gatorcane]

with how fast he clouds are now moving west to the north of our system a general West movement is likely...the ridge is definitely building north of it now.

So I wouldn't expect a NW or N movement at least just yet.

[vacanechaser]

gfs shows a weaker system again but near central nc coast..






Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurrciane Intercept Research Team

[vacanechaser]

seems it splits the system a bit... takes the upper level center south into the south carolina area and the lower level area into north carolina...





Jesse V. Bass III
http://ww.vastormphoto.com
Hurrciane Intercept Research Team

[feederband]

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I was just looking for it.

might want to put that thing away.

Lunch?

[Brent]

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I was just looking for it.

might want to put that thing away.

I need it to eat my crow.

[curtinnc]

Looks like ya all better put those forks away...