Tropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Global & BAM Models

[HURAKAN]

375
WHXX01 KWBC 032030
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2030 UTC MON SEP 3 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070903 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070903 1800 070904 0600 070904 1800 070905 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.7N 78.4W 30.4N 78.3W 30.1N 78.4W 29.6N 78.8W
BAMD 30.7N 78.4W 29.9N 77.7W 29.1N 77.0W 28.6N 76.2W
BAMM 30.7N 78.4W 30.1N 78.1W 29.6N 77.7W 29.2N 77.7W
LBAR 30.7N 78.4W 30.3N 77.2W 30.3N 76.4W 30.6N 75.6W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070905 1800 070906 1800 070907 1800 070908 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.4N 79.8W 30.1N 83.6W 33.0N 86.6W 36.0N 87.0W
BAMD 28.9N 75.5W 28.6N 76.4W 28.1N 78.3W 28.4N 79.7W
BAMM 29.0N 78.1W 28.8N 80.1W 28.9N 82.6W 29.2N 84.0W
LBAR 31.4N 74.8W 33.1N 72.3W 34.5N 67.7W 37.2N 64.3W
SHIP 51KTS 51KTS 52KTS 50KTS
DSHP 51KTS 51KTS 31KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.7N LONCUR = 78.4W DIRCUR = 90DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 30.7N LONM12 = 79.6W DIRM12 = 90DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 30.7N LONM24 = 81.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Meso]

EURO
Although I`m not sure this is the system it's showing since it appears to coming off the coast on FL in like 144 hours..Hrmm

[ronjon]

Meso, I just want to say I appreciate all the effort you put forth in posting these model results. Keep up the good work! Now, on the Euro results you may want to post the 144 hr result as it LFs on the GA coast and goes inland from there.

[HenkL]

EURO
Although I`m not sure this is the system it's showing since it appears to coming off the coast on FL in like 144 hours..Hrmm

If you look at he loop from ECMWF you see 99.INVEST coming in from the east, making landfall in Georgia I think, then going NE to the ocean again.

[vacanechaser]

18z nam shows a pretty good 500mb vort max under a building ridge as it, the ridge, shifts east





Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[hurricanetrack]

It even looks like a hurricane on the 18Z surface map:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144m.gif

Look at the "eye" like feature in the middle. Kind of interesting to see that on the GFS when it cannot even pick out a sub 930 hurricane in the deep tropics.

We shall see- this will be the best chance of a landfalling TC so far since Ernesto.

Doh! Forgot about Erin....sorry....getting too wrapped up in all of this!

Doh again! And Barry but geez, that was pretty weak....

oops.

[vacanechaser]

18z gfs, this is as close i guess as it gets this run to the carolina coast... almost to hatteras, but then out





Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[RattleMan]

12z CMC :

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Cyclone1]

If the CMC is correct, I will name my first child Cmc.

[jrod]

12z CMC :

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

I've been drooling over that model run, not to wish harm on anyone but because how good the swell would be for my area. My wishcasting is a hurricane heading towards jax so I can get out of work for a few days.

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 032321
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 99L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 3

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 30.5 78.1 90./ 5.0
6 30.3 77.5 111./ 5.8
12 30.2 76.5 96./ 8.9
18 30.0 75.5 97./ 8.5
24 30.3 73.8 82./15.0
30 30.6 72.8 70./ 8.8
36 31.0 71.8 68./ 9.3
42 31.6 71.0 56./ 9.7
48 31.8 70.5 71./ 3.9
54 31.6 69.7 100./ 7.1
60 32.1 69.0 56./ 7.5
66 32.0 68.7 103./ 3.0
72 32.0 68.2 93./ 4.3
78 32.0 68.3 284./ 1.1
84 31.8 69.0 250./ 6.9
90 31.8 69.3 274./ 2.3
96 32.1 70.1 291./ 7.0
102 32.5 70.2 339./ 4.4
108 33.3 70.8 325./ 9.3
114 34.1 70.9 350./ 8.2
120 35.0 70.7 15./ 9.7
126 36.1 70.2 23./10.9

18z GFDL

[cycloneye]

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 29.1N 71.6W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 05.09.2007 29.1N 71.6W WEAK

00UTC 06.09.2007 29.8N 70.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 06.09.2007 29.8N 70.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.09.2007 27.1N 72.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.09.2007 27.0N 74.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.09.2007 27.2N 75.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.09.2007 27.3N 76.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.09.2007 27.6N 77.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.09.2007 28.0N 78.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

I didnt saw the UKMET posted so here it is.

[jhamps10]

I know that this model is one of the unliked ones on here, however it paints a scary path for 99L. Kinda like that storm from 2 years ago I won't even name.....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45 ... =Animation

at least after it goes across Florida that is.

[vacanechaser]

here is the hwrf... passing east of hatteras as a hurricane




and further north as a 105mph hurricane just offshore of the delaware virginia coast





Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Frank P]

I know that this model is one of the unliked ones on here, however it paints a scary path for 99L. Kinda like that storm from 2 years ago I won't even name.....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45 ... =Animation

at least after it goes across Florida that is.

What's even worse with this model, and I'm not all that familiar with it, it takes Felix into the BOC and them moves it north in the GOM....

[wzrgirl1]

I know that this model is one of the unliked ones on here, however it paints a scary path for 99L. Kinda like that storm from 2 years ago I won't even name.....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45 ... =Animation

at least after it goes across Florida that is.

link is not working for me...can you resend it please, thanks

[jhamps10]

here is the hwrf...


and further north as a 105mph hurricane just offshore of the delaware virginia coast





Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Bob revisited?

[vacanechaser]

I know that this model is one of the unliked ones on here, however it paints a scary path for 99L. Kinda like that storm from 2 years ago I won't even name.....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45 ... =Animation

at least after it goes across Florida that is.

dont see what you are talking about... link does not work either



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Frank P]

I know that this model is one of the unliked ones on here, however it paints a scary path for 99L. Kinda like that storm from 2 years ago I won't even name.....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45 ... =Animation

at least after it goes across Florida that is.

link is not working for me...can you resend it please, thanks

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45 ... =Animation

[Stephanie]

That is scary.