Tropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Global & BAM Models

[hurricanetrack]

I am simply astounded that the models still show this developing in light of what we are seeing in reality.

Either the models are going to be wrong- all of them- or, this will make a comeback for the ages. Well, maybe not the ages, but you get the point.

I remember when Andrew was sheared to death and our local wx guy said, "If it survives the night...." and the rest was history. At the risk of wish-casting this in to an Andrew, which I am not, I am curious as to how similar this would be if indeed 99L can survive the next 24 hours- in terms of the overall comeback- not to cat-5 or anything close. But to see this come back from what it is now would be quite remarkable and quite a coup for the global models which won't let go.

The clock is ticking.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Well I was astounded this morning as well. But if we look at the shear progged for the upper levels, we see that it is forecast to start easing pretty quickly. Note the zonal shear area relative to the circ postion and how fast it moves N

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2007090606&field=850-200mb+Zonal+Shear&hour=Animation


+6hrs
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2007090606&field=850-200mb+Zonal+Shear&hour=Animation

We are at the point where this either happens or Mr. shear monster finishes it's breakfast of 99L-cakes

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 061307
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1307 UTC THU SEP 6 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070906 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070906 1200 070907 0000 070907 1200 070908 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.6N 69.5W 28.9N 69.8W 29.6N 70.9W 30.8N 72.1W
BAMD 28.6N 69.5W 29.6N 69.7W 30.5N 70.8W 31.8N 72.5W
BAMM 28.6N 69.5W 29.1N 69.7W 29.7N 70.7W 31.0N 72.1W
LBAR 28.6N 69.5W 28.9N 69.4W 29.4N 69.3W 30.2N 69.4W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 48KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070908 1200 070909 1200 070910 1200 070911 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.3N 73.4W 35.4N 74.3W 37.4N 72.1W 37.0N 69.6W
BAMD 33.3N 74.4W 36.7N 75.7W 39.5N 70.1W 38.3N 65.1W
BAMM 32.6N 73.6W 36.2N 74.6W 39.0N 70.9W 38.6N 67.4W
LBAR 31.1N 69.4W 32.4N 69.4W 33.2N 68.5W 33.2N 67.2W
SHIP 54KTS 60KTS 58KTS 51KTS
DSHP 54KTS 60KTS 58KTS 51KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.6N LONCUR = 69.5W DIRCUR = 180DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 29.7N LONM12 = 69.5W DIRM12 = 103DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 29.2N LONM24 = 71.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


For those who are always interested in seeing what the BAMS show,here is the 12:00 UTC run.

[KWT]

I have to admit i'm surprised they are still running 99L at 30kts still, I suppose Quikscat shows winds high enough for the models to start at 30kts. Still the SHIPS are taking it close to hurricane status, the GFDL does take it upto hurricane status on its 06z run as well so while its not 99L is in bad shape now it still need to be watched.

[vacanechaser]

well, for what its worth, the 12z gfs

60 hrs;



78 hrs:



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[windstorm99]

Look towards the african coast here comes our next invest if it can hold some convection.

[Stormcenter]

I am simply astounded that the models still show this developing in light of what we are seeing in reality.

Either the models are going to be wrong- all of them- or, this will make a comeback for the ages. Well, maybe not the ages, but you get the point.

I remember when Andrew was sheared to death and our local wx guy said, "If it survives the night...." and the rest was history. At the risk of wish-casting this in to an Andrew, which I am not, I am curious as to how similar this would be if indeed 99L can survive the next 24 hours- in terms of the overall comeback- not to cat-5 or anything close. But to see this come back from what it is now would be quite remarkable and quite a coup for the global models which won't let go.

The clock is ticking.

If there is one thing I've learned about the tropics in all my years of tracking storms is that
"Anything" is possible. I would not write it off but I still wouldn't bet the house on it developing either.

[JtSmarts]

I am simply astounded that the models still show this developing in light of what we are seeing in reality.

Either the models are going to be wrong- all of them- or, this will make a comeback for the ages. Well, maybe not the ages, but you get the point.

I remember when Andrew was sheared to death and our local wx guy said, "If it survives the night...." and the rest was history. At the risk of wish-casting this in to an Andrew, which I am not, I am curious as to how similar this would be if indeed 99L can survive the next 24 hours- in terms of the overall comeback- not to cat-5 or anything close. But to see this come back from what it is now would be quite remarkable and quite a coup for the global models which won't let go.

The clock is ticking.

Are there any satellite pictures around from when Andrew was being called "Raggedy Andy"? I would really like to see them for comparison's sake.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 061838
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1838 UTC THU SEP 6 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070906 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070906 1800 070907 0600 070907 1800 070908 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.4N 69.6W 28.7N 70.3W 29.7N 71.4W 31.0N 72.5W
BAMD 28.4N 69.6W 29.2N 70.1W 30.3N 71.4W 31.7N 73.0W
BAMM 28.4N 69.6W 28.7N 70.1W 29.6N 71.3W 31.0N 72.5W
LBAR 28.4N 69.6W 28.2N 69.6W 28.5N 69.9W 29.2N 70.3W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070908 1800 070909 1800 070910 1800 070911 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.5N 73.6W 35.4N 74.3W 37.2N 73.0W 39.1N 72.2W
BAMD 33.4N 74.6W 36.2N 74.8W 37.2N 70.2W 35.9N 67.9W
BAMM 32.7N 73.7W 36.1N 73.8W 37.7N 70.7W 38.4N 69.7W
LBAR 29.9N 70.9W 31.5N 71.2W 32.5N 71.6W 33.0N 71.3W
SHIP 56KTS 63KTS 59KTS 47KTS
DSHP 56KTS 63KTS 59KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.4N LONCUR = 69.6W DIRCUR = 185DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 29.1N LONM12 = 69.5W DIRM12 = 180DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 29.3N LONM24 = 70.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 75NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


The BAMS continue to be runned.This is the 18:00 UTC run.

[Frank2]

This from the Jacksonville WSO:

.LONG TERM...EXPECT AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE SWRN ATLANTIC
ACRS CTRL FL EARLY IN THE WEEK KEEPING RAIN CHANCES BELOW NORMAL.
THEN MID WEEK A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE CTRL GULF
COAST ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. MEAN SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT WILL RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA AND BRING BACK CHANCE
POPS. TEMPS WILL BE AOA CLIMO THROUGH MID WEEK.

it seems that there are many signs of an early Fall...

[flwxwatcher]

12Z EURO.. continues to not be very impressed with this system.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7090612!!/

[UpTheCreek]

We are at the point where this either happens or Mr. shear monster finishes it's breakfast of 99L-cakes

That just killed me right there!

[Extremecane]

6 gfdl

lanfall:


then racs north and gives Hurricane force winds in DC

[cycloneye]

That run was from early this morning at 6z.The 12z and 18z didnt run.

[Extremecane]

why didnt they run?

[cycloneye]

Being so disorganized today,they didnt runs at those times.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 070039
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0039 UTC FRI SEP 7 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070907 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070907 0000 070907 1200 070908 0000 070908 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.3N 69.6W 29.0N 70.5W 29.9N 71.6W 31.1N 72.8W
BAMD 28.3N 69.6W 29.2N 70.2W 30.5N 71.4W 32.0N 73.0W
BAMM 28.3N 69.6W 28.9N 70.2W 29.9N 71.2W 31.3N 72.3W
LBAR 28.3N 69.6W 28.6N 69.8W 29.3N 70.1W 30.2N 70.4W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070909 0000 070910 0000 070911 0000 070912 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.3N 74.0W 35.0N 75.0W 37.5N 72.4W 39.3N 67.7W
BAMD 33.5N 74.5W 36.1N 75.2W 37.4N 71.0W 37.5N 66.2W
BAMM 32.8N 73.4W 36.2N 73.8W 38.7N 68.9W 39.7N 61.4W
LBAR 31.2N 70.5W 32.9N 71.1W 33.9N 69.9W 34.8N 68.7W
SHIP 56KTS 60KTS 57KTS 47KTS
DSHP 56KTS 60KTS 57KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.3N LONCUR = 69.6W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 28.6N LONM12 = 69.5W DIRM12 = 187DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 29.7N LONM24 = 69.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

These are still running.

[Thunder44]

Being so disorganized today,they didnt runs at those times.

I don't think it has anything to do with that.

[Zardoz]

[NCWeatherChic]

ZARDOZ!