Subtropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Recon Discussion

[WindRunner]

So whats up with the flight patterns? They seem to be concentrating on a small area.

That was them flying around the suspected LLC center in order to try and close off the circulation and provide a circulation fix that is as accurate as possible. However, now that that has been done they will be flying into some of the convection in order to investigate the winds associated with the system.

[dwsqos2]

213830 3028N 07021W 9772 00321 0137 +226 +226 122041 043 999 999 05

[BigA]

I saw something in Recon Obs about a 43 kt flight level wind. Shouldnt this be enough (if they can find a legit circulation) to get 35kts at the surface, or at least 30 kts? 43x.8 =34.4

[WindRunner]

That's more than enough . . . possibly even for 40kts if they really, really feel like it.

[Brent]

That's definitely enough. It's going straight to Gabrielle when they finally decide to upgrade.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its a tropical storm if they find a well defined LLC.

[Thunder44]

I assuming when recon sends out a VDM, this will be classified a TD or TS shortly thereafter.

[MiamiensisWx]

They probably won't find westerly winds at the current latitude and longitude coordinates. They should travel further W and SW. It's giving a misleading presentation; they probably haven't found the LLC, but that fact doesn't disprove its existance. Additionally, it's a broad ill-defined circulation, and the LLC could reform at another location.

[brunota2003]

So with the 48 knots, using a .8 reduction, comes out to 45 mph or so at the surface (44 mph with .8 and 46 with .85)

[CrazyC83]

48 kt FL winds found. That would be 43 kt at the surface (if they decide to call it, it would be TS Gabrielle immediately for sure).

[brunota2003]

48 kt FL winds found. That would be 43 kt at the surface (if they decide to call it, it would be TS Gabrielle immediately for sure).

I highly doubt they'd use .9 in this situation, probably closer to .85 IMO

[Brent]

Regardless it'll be Gabrielle. Now we just need a VDM(the one thing lacking that will get a definite upgrade).

[WindRunner]

48 kt FL winds found. That would be 43 kt at the surface (if they decide to call it, it would be TS Gabrielle immediately for sure).

I highly doubt they'd use .9 in this situation, probably closer to .85 IMO

The RECCO shows 42kts surface, though I'm never really sure where those numbers come from. Either way, I think I can hear the fingers pounding away on keyboards in Miami . . .

[pojo]

So whats up with the flight patterns? They seem to be concentrating on a small area.

they are going to.... since this is an LLI.... the object is to find the center of circulation and the directional winds....

[Air Force Met]

AFM,they are going up passed 30n.Found 32kts.Wind picking up.

Yep...figured they would find the good stuff once they got up to near 31/32N. 48 kts at FL is about what I expected.

[Thunder44]

48 kt FL winds found. That would be 43 kt at the surface (if they decide to call it, it would be TS Gabrielle immediately for sure).

They are flying around 300m. The standard reduction for that flight level is 80%. 48kt would be about 38.4kt at the surface

[cycloneye]

Crazy,what do you meant when you said Abrupt changes comming?

[MiamiensisWx]

Crazy,what do you meant when you said Abrupt changes comming?

He described the sharp shift in terms of wind direction. The most recent data indicated a sharp wind shift (heading).

[CrazyC83]

Crazy,what do you meant when you said Abrupt changes comming?

The wind jumped from NE/NNE to due E in one line...

[cycloneye]

Oh ok.Lets see if in the next set west winds are found.And finnaly a VDM comes out to seal the deal.