Severe Tropical Storm DANAS in WPAC-Discussions & Imagery

#21 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Sep 07, 2007 8:28 pm

Latest:

Interesting to note that this afternoon all the convection was in the northern quadrant. Now the convection has moved toward the southern quadrant!!!

#22 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Sep 07, 2007 10:11 pm

Looks kinda subtropical as well (just like Gabrielle is officially)...

Chacor · #23 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Sep 07, 2007 10:12 pm

815
WDPN32 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W WARNING NR04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (DANAS) HAS TRACKED GENERALLY NORTH-
WESTWARD OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED DURING
THAT PERIOD AS WELL.
B. TS 11W HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW FOR THIS SYSTEM BEING LIMITED
BY A TUTT CELL JUST SOUTH OF 11W. THE STR TO THE NORTH OF 11W HAS
PREVENTED A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FROM SETTING UP. TUTT CELLS
TO THE WEST AND SOUTH ARE INDUCING SUBSIDENCE OF DRY AIR INTO THE LOW
AND MID-LEVELS. THIS DRY AIR IS INTRUDING INTO THE CORE OF THE TS,
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE EASTERN TO NORTHWEST QUADRANTS
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND LACK OF A GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS PREVENTED FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OF THE TS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES 2.5/2.5 (KNES, AND PGTW) AND 3.0/3.0 (RJTD). ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES 11W IS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N
153.9E AT 080000Z, APPROXIMATELY 625 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHICHI
JIMA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME AS TS 11W CONTINUES TO
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD IN A STANDARD SYNOPTIC PATTERN, POLEWARD FLOW
REGIME.
B. TS 11W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE EARLY
FORECAST PERIOD. THE STR WILL RETREAT TO THE EAST NEAR TAU 36 AS THE
MIDLATITUDE SYSTEM OVER JAPAN PROPAGATES EASTWARD. THIS RETREAT WILL
ALLOW TS 11W TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 48. TS 11W IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN THE EARLY TAUS AS THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WHILE SLOWLY
GAINING MORE POLEWARD OUTLFOW. AS TS 11W REACHES THE STR AXIS IT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH MAXIMUM INTENSITY AS IT ACHIEVES OPTIMAL OUTFLOW.
AFTER TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WITH WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWEST AS IT BEGINS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWEST AS ITS INTERACTION WITH THE MIDLATTITUDE TROUGH COMPLETES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

Chacor · #24 Postby **Chacor** » Sat Sep 08, 2007 11:22 pm

992
WTPQ21 RJTD 090300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0710 DANAS (0710)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090300UTC 32.5N 149.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 110NM
FORECAST
24HF 100300UTC 37.2N 149.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 110000UTC 41.4N 155.6E 170NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 120000UTC 43.6N 167.0E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Chacor · #25 Postby **Chacor** » Sun Sep 09, 2007 7:53 am

631
WTPQ21 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0710 DANAS (0710)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091200UTC 34.2N 148.7E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 101200UTC 39.3N 152.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 111200UTC 41.4N 164.4E 170NM 70%
MOVE E 24KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 121200UTC 42.0N 176.2E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Chacor · #26 Postby **Chacor** » Sun Sep 09, 2007 9:01 pm

Was upgraded to an STS a little earlier.

287
WTPQ21 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0710 DANAS (0710)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 36.5N 149.0E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 110000UTC 41.1N 157.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 120000UTC 41.2N 170.1E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Chacor · #27 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 2:01 am

Despite its northerly latitude of 38N, it still looks remarkable:

And here's a wide WV view, for geographical context:

Chacor · #28 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 3:59 am

An apparent eye feature now. NRL has 60 kts.

#29 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 5:52 am

LATEST: FEELING THE WESTERLIES.

#30 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 3:22 pm

Looks like it is a typhoon...

#31 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 3:36 pm

Still at 50kts.

WTPQ21 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0710 DANAS (0710)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101800UTC 40.4N 154.7E GOOD
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 111800UTC 40.7N 167.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE E 24KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 121800UTC 41.0N 178.8E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

#32 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Sep 11, 2007 3:37 pm

ET.

<Analyses at 11/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
LOW
Center position N40°00'(40.0°)
E168°00'(168.0°)
Direction and speed of movement E 45km/h(25kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa

#33 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Sep 11, 2007 4:03 pm

Bye Danas, you almost made it!!!

Good try. Better luck next time around.

Severe Tropical Storm DANAS in WPAC-Discussions & Imagery

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