T Depression GABRIELLE : Advisories= Last Advisory Written

[Chacor]

832
WTNT32 KNHC 090558
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007

...GABRIELLE NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS OUTER BANDS MOVE
ONSHORE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST OR ABOUT 85
MILES...135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...17
KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE SHOULD MOVE OVER OR VERY
NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE ALREADY SPREADING
ONSHORE AT THIS TIME.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA AS GABRIELLE PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE COAST.

GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...33.5 N...75.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007

...GABRIELLE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE OUTER BANKS LATER
TODAY...COULD STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/HR. GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTH LATER TODAY AND
THEN TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
GABRIELLE WOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA AS GABRIELLE PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE COAST.

GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER BANKS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...34.0 N...76.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
0900 UTC SUN SEP 09 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 76.1W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 40SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 76.1W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 75.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 35.3N 76.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 36.6N 74.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 38.0N 72.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 39.2N 69.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 76.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007

PEAK 925 MB WINDS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
GABRIELLE WERE 53 KT IN THE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT AN ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 40 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER REMAINS DISPLACED BY 30 NMI OR MORE FROM THE VIGOROUS
MID-LEVEL ROTATION IN THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER. HOWEVER...ON THE FIX MADE JUST A MOMENT AGO...THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA SUGGESTED THAT A NEW CENTER MIGHT BE FORMING
WITHIN THE CONVECTION. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...WE WOULD LIKELY
SEE SOME STRENGTHENING...MAKING GABRIELLE A MID-RANGE TROPICAL
STORM AT LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/9. ALTHOUGH A MODEST WESTWARD JUMP IS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING IF THE CENTER REFORMS...GABRIELLE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER TODAY...AND THEN
BE CAUGHT UP IN INCREASING WESTERLIES AFTER THAT. THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH LANDFALL OVER THE OUTER
BANKS...BUT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH
AFTER RECURVATURE TO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW IN THE GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0900Z 34.0N 76.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 35.3N 76.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 36.6N 74.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 38.0N 72.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 39.2N 69.6W 35 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

[Thunder44]

...Gabrielle strengthens as it nears the North Carolina coast...
Reports from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
Gabrielle has strengthened a little more.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Surf City North
Carolina northward to Cape Charles Light Virginia...including the
Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect in southeastern Virginia
for the lower Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 800 am EDT...1200z...the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was
located near latitude 34.2 north...longitude 76.4 west or about 30
miles... 50 km...south-southeast of Cape Lookout North Carolina.

Gabrielle is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph...17
km/hr. Gabrielle is expected to turn to the north later today and
then to the northeast tonight. On this track...the center of
Gabrielle will be moving across the Outer Banks this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with higher
gusts...over a very small area near the center. Some additional
strengthening is possible in the few remaining hours prior to
landfall.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles...75 km
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 1005 mb...29.68 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 2 to 3 feet is possible within the
warning area as Gabrielle passes near or over the coast.

Gabrielle is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1
to 3 inches across coastal sections of North Carolina and
southeastern Virginia...with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over the Outer Banks today.

Repeating the 800 am EDT position...34.2 N...76.4 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50
mph. Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 1100 am EDT.

$$
Forecaster Franklin

[Chacor]

WTNT42 KNHC 091142
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007

REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT GABRIELLE HAS STRENGTHENED. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A
PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61 KT ABOUT 2 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...WHICH HAS REFORMED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION UNDERNEATH
THE MID-LEVEL ROTATION OBERSERVED OVERNIGHT. THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THIS MESOSCALE VORTEX COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE GABRIELLE MAKES
LANDFALL...IT HAS PERSISTED AND BUILT DOWNWARD OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO ASSUME THAT THESE TRENDS
COULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS
THEREFORE INCREASED TO 55 KT...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED
THAT THE INCREASED WINDS EXTEND ONLY A FEW MILES FROM THE CENTER.

A SLIGHT WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE 12 HOUR FORECAST
POINT...AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1200Z 34.2N 76.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 35.3N 76.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 36.6N 74.8W 55 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 38.0N 72.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 39.2N 69.6W 40 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

551
WTNT32 KNHC 091449
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007

...GABRIELLE ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTH CAROLINA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST OR ABOUT 20
MILES... 30 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.
GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AND
THEN TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
GABRIELLE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN BACK OVER THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...OVER A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE AS GABRIELLE PASSES OVER THE OUTER BANKS TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA AS GABRIELLE PASSES OVER THE OUTER BANKS.

GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND SOUNDS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA AND...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA...NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BORDER.

THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER THE OUTER
BANKS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...34.7 N...76.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB

[HURAKAN]

431
WTNT42 KNHC 091500
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007

GABRIELLE IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST
REFLECTIVITIES ARE NO LONGER WRAPPING AROUND THE SMALL
CIRCULATION... WHICH HAS SEPARATED A LITTLE FROM THE CONVECTION...
PROBABLY DUE TO NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR. IN ADDITION...VELOCITY DATA
FROM THE RADAR SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE AIRCRAFT THAT JUST FLEW THROUGH THE
CENTER HAS NOT SAMPLED THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT...IT HAS NOT FOUND ANY WINDS TO SUGGEST THAT GABRIELLE HAS
STRENGTHENED. SINCE GABRIELLE IS ABOUT TO INTERACT WITH LAND AND
NORTHERLY SHEAR IS INCREASING...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
BEEN SLIGHTLY LOWERED.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/9...AND RADAR IMAGERY HINTS THAT THE TURN
TO THE RIGHT IS BEGINNING. GABRIELLE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. GABRIELLE IS
FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 72
HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 34.7N 76.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 35.9N 75.8W 50 KT...NEAR NC COAST
24HR VT 10/1200Z 37.3N 73.9W 50 KT...OVER ATLANTIC
36HR VT 11/0000Z 38.5N 71.1W 45 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 39.8N 67.8W 40 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB

[Chacor]

WTNT62 KNHC 091613
TCUAT2
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1215 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007


RADAR IMAGERY AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE CROSSED THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA ALONG THE CAPE LOOKOUT NATIONAL SEASHORE AT ABOUT 1145 AM
EDT. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER HAS MADE LANDFALL...THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE YET TO REACH THE COAST AND WILL BE
SPREADING ONSHORE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007

...GABRIELLE MOVING OVER EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST OR ALONG THE
NORTH COAST OF THE PAMLICO SOUND AND ABOUT 45 MILES...75 KM...
WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF GABRIELLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BACK OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A WIND GUST TO 49 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED NEAR OCRACOKE
AND A WIND GUST TO 45 MPH WAS RECENTLY OBSERVED AT CAPE HATTERAS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA TODAY.

GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND SOUNDS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA AND...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA...NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BORDER.

THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER THE OUTER
BANKS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...35.3 N...76.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
2100 UTC SUN SEP 09 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 76.1W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 76.1W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 76.3W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 36.7N 74.9W...OVER ATLANTIC
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 37.8N 72.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 38.9N 69.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 40.3N 65.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.7N 76.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007

...GABRIELLE BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA....
...STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER BANKS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 35.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST OR
ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM...SOUTHWEST OF KILL DEVIL HILLS NORTH
CAROLINA AND ABOUT 45 MILES...75 KM...NORTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA.

GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...
THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN MOVE BACK
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
WIND GUST TO 51 MPH WAS RECENTLY OBSERVED AT CAPE HATTERAS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA TODAY.

GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND SOUNDS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...35.7 N...76.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007

DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION THAT DEPARTED GABRIELLE JUST PRIOR
TO LANDFALL SUGGESTED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE LIKELY 50 KT OVER
WATER SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THE CENTER THEN MADE LANDFALL ALONG
THE CAPE LOOKOUT NATIONAL SEASHORE AT ABOUT 1545 UTC. SINCE THEN
THE NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE CYCLONE...AND THE
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS PROCEEDED NORTHWARD OVER EXTREME
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
REMAINED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KT. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
INDICATES SLIGHT WEAKENING...BUT MAINTAINS GABRIELLE AS A TROPICAL
STORM UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 72 HOURS.
HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-DEVELOP NEAR THE CIRCULATION
CENTER DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...GABRIELLE COULD WEAKEN FASTER
THAN INDICATED BELOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/10. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
REMAINS UNCHANGED AND GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD
SOON AS IT MOVES AROUND THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 35.7N 76.1W 45 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 10/0600Z 36.7N 74.9W 40 KT...OVER ATLANTIC
24HR VT 10/1800Z 37.8N 72.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 38.9N 69.4W 40 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 40.3N 65.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB

[Chacor]

303
WTNT32 KNHC 100227
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007

...GABRIELLE BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.3 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...125 KM...NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 445
MILES...715 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK THE STORM WILL BE
MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140
KM..MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...36.3 N...75.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

[Chacor]

084
WTNT42 KNHC 100232
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007

SATELLITE AND WSR-88D RADAR IMAGES SHOW THAT GABRIELLE IS A POORLY
ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH ANY REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION FAR TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE STORM HAS EMERGED INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND WAS FIXED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER...FINDING 42
KT MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB.
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM FRISCO PIER SUGGEST THAT 40 KT
REMAINS A GOOD INITIAL INTENSITY. WITH A CONTINUATION OF STRONG
SHEAR AND ONLY ABOUT 24 HOURS OF WARM WATER REMAINING IN THE
STORM'S PATH...SOME WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY AND IS SHOWN IN THE NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
REDEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM AND
MAINTAIN ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BE SO FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...GABRIELLE COULD
LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE MERGING WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL
LOW IN A FEW DAYS.

THE MOTION HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND IS ESTIMATED
NEAR 035/9. GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TURN EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES AROUND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO THE MIDDLE-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ALMOST THE SAME AS THAT OF PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BEYOND 48 HOURS...
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
LOW BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER... THE GFS DOES SUGGEST
THE POSSIBILITY OF GABRIELLE REMAINING FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO
BE SEPARATE FROM THE LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW...BUT TO REMAIN A WEAK
SYSTEM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 36.3N 75.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 37.2N 73.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 38.3N 70.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 39.5N 67.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 41.0N 62.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

[Coredesat]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 100840
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
500 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY COMING OUT OF THE ECLIPSE INDICATES THAT GABRIELLE
REMAINS VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER RECENTLY
MOVED JUST NORTH OF BUOY 44014 WHICH REPORTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25
KT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...GABRIELLE IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT
DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ESSENTIALLY TAKES
GABRIELLE ALONG THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. SINCE ANY
DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH WOULD BRING THE SYSTEM OVER WARMER
WATERS...INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ANY CONVECTION WHICH DOES FORM WOULD LIKELY BE QUICKLY SHEARED OFF
AS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME EMBEDDED IN STRONG ZONAL FLOW. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS GABRIELLE AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION FOR 2
DAYS AT WHICH TIME IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A STRONGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION DOES NOT REFORM
SOON...GABRIELLE COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/10. THERE HAS BEEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING OR GUIDANCE AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MERELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PROGRESSING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 37.0N 74.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 37.8N 72.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 38.9N 69.4W 30 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 40.4N 65.3W 30 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 42.3N 60.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[P.K.]

WTNT42 KNHC 102032
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
500 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2007

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF
GABRIELLE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL CIRCULATION APPEARS
TO BE LESS DEFINED THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.
GABRIELLE HAS ACCELERATED AND CONTINUES TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF DUE
EAST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 075/15 KT. THE TRACK
FORECAST WAS AGAIN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL MOTION. THE NEW TRACK IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS. THE GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE THAT GABRIELLE WILL BE ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN 36-48 HOURS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS GABRIELLE AS A 30 KT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED. HOWEVER...IF THE DEPRESSION IS NOT
ABLE TO GENERATE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAN CURRENTLY
OBSERVED...IT MAY NOT SURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THAT LONG.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 37.6N 71.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 38.1N 68.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 39.4N 64.2W 30 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 41.4N 59.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Chacor]

374
WTNT32 KNHC 110228
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2007

...GABRIELLE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST OR ABOUT
230 MILES...375 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...AND
A CONTINUED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...GABRIELLE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...38.1 N...68.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Chacor]

265
WTNT42 KNHC 110232
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2007

DESPITE A RATHER HARSH UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT...GABRIELLE IS
HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS
OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF STREAM. EARLIER IR IMAGERY AND
LIGHTENING DATA SHOWED SOME RESURGENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM BUT RECENTLY THIS ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED AND IS BEING SHEARED AWAY FROM THE CENTER. DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 KT AND A RECENT
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS NO VELOCITIES GREATER THAN 30 KT.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. THE FORECAST
TRACK TAKES THE CENTER ALONG THE NORTHERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM
AND THE CYCLONE COULD PASS OVER ONE OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM CORE
RINGS. ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD FAVOR SOME RESTRENGTHENING...THE
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION. IN 24 HOURS OR SO...THE GFS SHOWS THE SYSTEM
INTERACTING WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND GABRIELLE IS LIKELY TO BECOME
ABSORBED BY THAT CYCLONE AFTER 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.

THE FORWARD SPEED IS INCREASING AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT
075/17. GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...AND TO THE NORTH OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN THE VICINITY
OF BERMUDA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE U.K. MET AND GFS TRACKS...
BUT CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 38.1N 68.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 39.1N 65.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 40.5N 61.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 43.0N 56.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 110848
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

IN ADDITION TO THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED ECLIPSE PERIOD FOR
GOES-EAST...GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN UNAVAILABLE
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT DUE TO A LUNAR SHADOW. THIS
EVENT OCCURS ABOUT TWICE PER YEAR WHEN THE MOON IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN THE SATELLITE AND THE SUN. LUCKILY...A VERY TIMELY TRMM
PASS AT 0611 UTC HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER AND INDICATED DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
ADDITIONALLY...GABRIELLE IS JUST BECOMING VISIBLE IN THE OUTER
FRINGES OF METSAT-9 IMAGERY...WHICH ALSO SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
THUS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. GABRIELLE IS CURRENTLY
MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER A WARM CORE EDDY IN A FEW HOURS. THEREFORE...
GABRIELLE MIGHT BE ABLE TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION...ALBEIT
LIMITED...FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SHARPLY COOLER WATERS
TO THE NORTH AND A CONTINUATION OF STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY CONFINED SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A
FRONTAL ZONE IN 24-36 HOURS.

THE 0611 UTC TRMM PASS INDICATES THAT GABRIELLE IS MOVING A LITTLE
TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 065/18. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE
TOWARD THE NORTH BASED ON THIS DATA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0900Z 39.0N 66.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 40.2N 63.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 42.1N 58.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

The 5 AM advisory was absent so here it is.

[HURAKAN]

072
WTNT42 KNHC 111444
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
GABRIELLE. HOWEVER...A 1000 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATES THAT
THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ILL-DEFINED AND ELONGATED SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST. IN FACT...THE VORTICITY CENTER THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT IS LOCATED AT THE SOUTHEASTERN END OF A
TROUGH CHARACTERIZED BY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. SINCE A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION NO LONGER EXISTS...THIS SYSTEM NO
LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST
ADVISORY ISSUED ON GABRIELLE. AN ILL-DEFINED REMNANT LOW COULD
PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 39.6N 65.3W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 12/0000Z 40.9N 61.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

It's over for Gabrielle. What an irony, Gabrielle in 2001 began on Sep. 11 and in 2007 ended on Sep. 11!!!

[HURAKAN]

520
WTNT32 KNHC 111442
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

...GABRIELLE DISSIPATING WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA....

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE DISSIPATING CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION GABRIELLE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.6 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST OR ABOUT 355 MILES...575 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...
35 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE
REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. EVEN THOUGH THE CIRCULATION
IS DISSIPATING...WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WILL PERSIST WITH THE
REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...39.6 N...65.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN