Invest 90L SE GOM: Discussions & Images

[HURAKAN]

So far this system has not shown sings of organization, but nonetheless, I have to agree on the fact that tomorrow is the peak of the hurricane season and it's September, anything can happen. Something that I have to give it is persistance. More or less it has persisted over the past few days.

[ROCK]

Update: just by looking at the latest vis.....anyone see that circulation to the north of the main blob off the Yuc? looks to be moving north.....

[srainhoutx]

So far this system has not shown sings of organization, but nonetheless, I have to agree on the fact that tomorrow is the peak of the hurricane season and it's September, anything can happen. Something that I have to give it is persistance. More or less it has persisted over the past few days.

I have to agree with persistence.

[Ptarmigan]

CMC sends 90L north to Mobile Pensacola area FWIW

They can take all the moisture because they really need it.

[mattpetre]

looking at the vis and can't understand why this has T#'s that high...if anything it should be to weak...maybe they got mixed up with all the invests....I am looking at the vis and see nothing remotely at the surface....has good upper air divergence but no low level convergence....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

I disagree in that from the visibles before this began to pop again there was some convergence going on just north of the Yucatan. I think it was very localized, but seemed to be maintaining something at the lower levels for almost 24 hours now.

Matt, I guess we agree to disagree... but if you look at the last Qscat (decending pass) not much of any surface reflection going on except maybe off the Cuba west coast. This is backed up by the CIMSS low level convergance map......the area in question has good upper air divergence but is lacking surface support....

Yes, and if I weren't using a little bit of just gut feeling here, I very well might be in total agreement with you because the Quikscat doesn't seem to agree with my interpretations of the visibles either... so I may just be seeing something that isn't there... wait and see.

[hriverajr]

I just don't see it moving straight north.. more of a texas thing I think.. if it develops.

[Derek Ortt]

I do not have the slightest clue as to how one could get a T 1.5/1.5 out of this mess

[JonathanBelles]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... &map.y=150

Things are starting to pop here. The chances of rain went from 30 to 60% for today and 70% tomorrow.

Talking to MSH in chat and his chances went up too. I'm now thinking that cold front might get well into FL.

[fasterdisaster]

I do not have the slightest clue as to how one could get a T 1.5/1.5 out of this mess

I agree. This is one of the worst looking invests I have ever seen. The conditions sure aren't great, and this looking like garbage sure isn't helping.

[ROCK]

I do not have the slightest clue as to how one could get a T 1.5/1.5 out of this mess

yeah, thinking that myself....if anything it should be "too weak"....

[cycloneye]

I would put that 1.5/1.5 to 91L.

[KWT]

Yeah I agree, this looks a real mess, they've mixed up 91L and 90L, they should really be the other way round, I'm sure of it!!
i'm not sure its the worst invest I've seen though, there have been worse!

[ROCK]

again...... anyone care to comment on what looks to be a weak exposed surface low at 25N and 88W??....convection be sheard off to the sw....looks to be moving north...I think Lyons mentioned something to this effect earlier today....


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[CrazyC83]

Of the three Invests, this is by far the worst. It has little chance of developing right now.

[Sanibel]

Remember, the main Gulf is ready for a real cyclone instead of those ragged TS's.

[PTrackerLA]

Of the three Invests, this is by far the worst. It has little chance of developing right now.

Not so sure about that. I see what appears to be an LLC trying to develop north of the Yucatan and convection has increased in this area and the Yucatan channel this afternoon. I don't think it will have the opportunity to become a hurricane but I would not be surprised to see a TS out of this. I'd also bank on 91L and 92L become named storms as well.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Convection has increased. I have no idea
where this will go...the synoptics are too confusing.

[CrazyC83]

I just looked at QuikSCAT - http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds19.png - and there is nothing remotely resembling a circulation in there.

[cycloneye]

Convection has increased but no LLC seen.

[fasterdisaster]

Of the three Invests, this is by far the worst. It has little chance of developing right now.

Not so sure about that. I see what appears to be an LLC trying to develop north of the Yucatan and convection has increased in this area and the Yucatan channel this afternoon. I don't think it will have the opportunity to become a hurricane but I would not be surprised to see a TS out of this. I'd also bank on 91L and 92L become named storms as well.

I see no low-level-center whatsoever, and convection doesn't matter at all if there is no discernible organization above that of my workroom desk.