Invest 90L SE GOM: Discussions & Images

[MiamiensisWx]

I think I can see two plausible low-level "swirls" (circulations). The first one is most evident, and it is centered near 24.5N and 88.6W. It appears to be a legit genuine circulation. This area probably received the 1.5 T numbers. Look at this GOES visible loop. Additionally, I see some signs of a secondary weaker sfc circulation further to the SE. That latter possible circulation is located under the cirrus canopy and convective activity N of western Cuba. You can see both areas highlighted on the graphic. There is strong upper divergence, but this system coyuld get going if the shear relaxes. There's a strong TUTT low over the area, but sfc convergence is decent. At the time, I don't expect development, but upper-air support could be more conducive if shear decreases over the system.

[jasons2k]

The only circulation I can pick out is on the NW side of the convection, the one near 25N & 89W. Surface pressures are still high in the area but I think this one should be watched overnight very closely. If that circulation can maintain itself, it might have the needed structure in place to spin something up if the convection can build overnight.

[jasons2k]

$.02 from the NWS-HGX:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
249 PM CDT SUN SEP 9 2007

DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. THE
MODELS TAKE THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.
WINDS IN THE 200-300 MB LAYER ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THIS FEATURE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WITH NO SFC REFLECTION. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD
WORK ITS WAY NORTH INTO CWA WED/THU AND INTERACT WITH THE FRONT.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HGXAFDHGX

[ROCK]

thanks Miami....the further north circulation was the one I was trying to point out.....partially exposed with all the convection being sheared off to the south and west

[wxman57]

http://img102.imageshack.us/img102/2664/gulfsystemsep9071td8.png

I think I can see two plausible low-level "swirls" (circulations). The first one is most evident, and it is centered near 24.5N and 88.6W. It appears to be a legit genuine circulation. This area probably received the 1.5 T numbers. Look at this GOES visible loop. Additionally, I see some signs of a secondary weaker sfc circulation further to the SE. That latter possible circulation is located under the cirrus canopy and convective activity N of western Cuba. You can see both areas highlighted on the graphic. There is strong upper divergence, but this system coyuld get going if the shear relaxes. There's a strong TUTT low over the area, but sfc convergence is decent. At the time, I don't expect development, but upper-air support could be more conducive if shear decreases over the system.

Sorry, you're imagining things here. There's definitely no LLC. I'm looking at a high-res satellite with surface plots. Nothing there. If/when an actual LLC develops there won't be any question as to whether it's there or not.

Of the 3 invests, this is the one least likely to develop due to strong wind shear.

[MiamiensisWx]

Sorry, you're imagining things here. There's definitely no LLC. I'm looking at a high-res satellite with surface plots. Nothing there. If/when an actual LLC develops there won't be any question as to whether it's there or not.

I was looking very closely at the visible loop. I think I can see a small "swirl" near 24.5N and 88.6W. I don't think it was a trick of the mind, but I cold be wrong.

Of the 3 invests, this is the one least likely to develop due to strong wind shear.

I do agree with this sentence.

[wxman57]

I was looking very closely at the visible loop. I think I can see a small "swirl" near 24.5N and 88.6W. I don't think it was a trick of the mind, but I cold be wrong.

Don't worry about small swirls/eddies. They don't develop. Look for a large scale convergence and lowering of pressure. You need to look at a surface plot to really see what's going on there.

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL1
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 9 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GABRIELLE...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE A FEW
HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT
THIS AFTERNOON. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS
WAVE COULD BRING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

[tailgater]

I think I can see two plausible low-level "swirls" (circulations). The first one is most evident, and it is centered near 24.5N and 88.6W. It appears to be a legit genuine circulation. This area probably received the 1.5 T numbers. Look at this GOES visible loop. Additionally, I see some signs of a secondary weaker sfc circulation further to the SE. That latter possible circulation is located under the cirrus canopy and convective activity N of western Cuba. You can see both areas highlighted on the graphic. There is strong upper divergence, but this system coyuld get going if the shear relaxes. There's a strong TUTT low over the area, but sfc convergence is decent. At the time, I don't expect development, but upper-air support could be more conducive if shear decreases over the system.

I believe the second area would be the one to watch for development to occur as I said before I think a Upper High will build over the SE GOM/ Yucatan Channel area. Maybe a TD on my Bday also the peak.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Joe Bastardi cut a special Sunday video for 92L.

The GOMEX system, per JB, could have the upper shear relax just in time, before Texas or Mexico, for a quick Erin type TS development.

OK, he was 30 mb too strong, but he did pick Gabrielle a week before it developed.


I'll post this in 92L thread as well, as while JB says too early to pick landfall, he says conditions will be extremely favorable over the Bahamas when 92L arrives. He thinks it could be big ticket. He didn't discuss EATL monster wave too much, but he seemed to imply yesterday it was also big ticket, and he wasn't at all sure it would recurve.

[Ed Mahmoud]

SHIPS likes 90L. I don't have the link to that page that shows all its inputs/figures, but it is almost a hurricane in 72 hours.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/07090919

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

A strong ridge may push this mess into Texas. And the convection
has increased. Maybe an erin repeat.

[lrak]

it looks like its starting to suck from the bottom part of the storm. We are so lucky to have this technology today.

[srainhoutx]

Good view before sunset VIA VIS SAT Loop of 90L. Watching roughly 24N 89W carefully...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055 this reads 1010mb and a N wind.

[lrak]

well it looks like alot of rain is going somewhere

[njweather]

No more rain for Houston!

We haven't had a single hurricane hit this year, but we're already well within the top 10 for the wettest summers in our 100+ year history.

There are giant mushrooms all over the front yard mulch - all because of the near-daily thunder shows.

[tropicwatch]

In the last visible loop there is definitely a circulation between 22 and 23 north and 92 and 93 west. At what level it is I don't have a clue but it is there.

Tropicwatch

[wxman57]

In the last visible loop there is definitely a circulation between 22 and 23 north and 92 and 93 west. At what level it is I don't have a clue but it is there.

Tropicwatch

That would be an upper-level low. Just spotty convection across the Gulf this evening. Nothing to focus it at the surface.

[sevenleft]

In the last visible loop there is definitely a circulation between 22 and 23 north and 92 and 93 west. At what level it is I don't have a clue but it is there.

Tropicwatch

That would be an upper-level low. Just spotty convection across the Gulf this evening. Nothing to focus it at the surface.

Essentially what is inhibiting development for 90L.