Invest 90L SE GOM: Discussions & Images

[Coredesat]

Just up on NRL.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This was the last system I expected to get 90L. WOW

[canetracker]

Wow!!! Agree Matt. This is the last thing I expected tonight too. What a change of events.

[cycloneye]

I thought it was going to be the eastern Atlantic wave.

[HURAKAN]

I find really interesting the way the NHC has talked so far about the possible future of this system and it's designated as an invest. Maybe I missed something along the way!!!

[canetracker]

I find really interesting the way the NHC has talked so far about the possible future of this system and it's designated as an invest. Maybe I missed something along the way!!!

According the TWO, they did not seem to think conditions were favorable. Very interesting indeed.

[srainhoutx]

Watching area roughly 25N 87W as per IR CH2 Loop...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

[Coredesat]

From the last TWO:

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM CUBA AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

[RL3AO]

I heard 90L and I thought CV wave.

[cycloneye]

TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0322 UTC SUN SEP 9 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20070909 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070909 0000 070909 1200 070910 0000 070910 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.5N 86.5W 24.1N 88.2W 24.8N 90.0W 25.7N 92.1W
BAMD 23.5N 86.5W 23.5N 87.8W 23.8N 89.5W 24.3N 91.3W
BAMM 23.5N 86.5W 23.9N 88.0W 24.3N 89.8W 24.9N 91.8W
LBAR 23.5N 86.5W 23.6N 87.6W 24.4N 89.0W 25.2N 90.6W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 35KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070911 0000 070912 0000 070913 0000 070914 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.4N 93.9W 27.3N 96.4W 27.6N 97.7W 28.5N 99.1W
BAMD 24.9N 93.3W 25.9N 96.2W 27.3N 97.1W 31.2N 93.2W
BAMM 25.7N 93.7W 26.7N 96.4W 27.7N 97.1W 29.8N 96.1W
LBAR 26.4N 92.0W 29.2N 93.4W 33.1N 90.1W 39.8N 79.5W
SHIP 41KTS 55KTS 61KTS 61KTS
DSHP 41KTS 55KTS 61KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.5N LONCUR = 86.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 23.5N LONM12 = 86.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 23.5N LONM24 = 85.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[chadtm80]

[Brent]

I heard 90L and I thought CV wave.

I thought so too.

[Buck]

I guess they are just being cautious since this one is closest to land. I too expected the Cape Verde wave to be an invest first.

[cycloneye]

Well,then the CV wave will be 91L,unless they tag too the wave close to the Leewards. Interesting right?

[Terry]

Local mets have talked about this possibility for a few days.

[canetracker]

As I posted earlier in the GOM thread, their area of initiation is in the loop current. It will be interesting to watch for possible future development.

[srainhoutx]

Had a feeling after 12z CMC sniffed this out that an Invest would have to follow.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Stormcenter]

Okay so where is this most likely to go if it does develop?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't think this will develop because of the high shear. Don't trust the ship it shows it has a developed system. That is the way it see's it.

[chadtm80]

Okay so where is this most likely to go if it does develop?

I posted the model map