Invest 90L SE GOM: Discussions & Images

[Sanibel]

GOM is having trouble supporting strong formation in 2007.

[tropicsgal05]

My question is Dr. Lyons mentioned this a few time son twc this morning, why would he mention this moving north at this time> That confuses me

[Ed Mahmoud]

Northeast of the upper low, there may be a mid or low level circulation near 25ºN and 90ºW


Maybe.

[canetracker]

My question is Dr. Lyons mentioned this a few time son twc this morning, why would he mention this moving north at this time> That confuses me

Dr. Lyons is very intelligent and I respect him for his level of intelligence. However, he never takes the time to explain his reasoning. I guess most viewers get there information from the media, take the meterologists at their word, and never want to know why he/she feels the way that they do. However, I never take anyone's word for anything. You need to show me why.
My only guess if their is an approaching trough and as 90L progresses more north, it will pick it up. Also heard someone mentioning earlier that high pressure is supposed to build back in from the east.

Wish a pro-met could chime in on the Dr. Lyon's scenario.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is a quote from JB's 8pm post regarding this system...

The Gulf of Mexico system is something that, although not alive, and not obvious, to me has the potential to be a problem in the western Gulf at midweek.

FWIW, this year he has been right 3 out of the 4 times he has called for situational development like this. I wonder if he will get this one right too?

[canetracker]

For the time being, JB's scenario could be plausible.
Regarding affecting Texas, the current steering layers and most models certainly supports his theory. However, I still think this needs to form an actual LLC, before anyone can get a good handle on it.
Regarding development, conditions are supposed to become more favorable by his mid week time line. Will 90L still be around by then? Who knows.
90L may turn out to be nothing more than a big rainmaker or it could be a TD or TS; only time will tell.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Convection has collaborated much further to the
east, near cuba's western coast:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsat.html


This would move west for 2 days, until Tuesday evening,
then feel the influence of a trough that would accelerate
it Northeast.

If this relocates to the east the threat to texas
decreases IMO, and with the trough I would
say it would be a AL/FL panhandle
threat.

[Steve]

>>For the time being, JB's scenario could be plausible.

You have the ingredients there - a backing off upper level low with a tropical wave/surface trough. That's the pattern reversal method which sometimes spawns or indicates spawning of homebrew development as the upper high builds overtop of the surface. But ultimately, you still need spin.

Steve

[beachbum_al]

Is there anything new with 90L? What are the chances of it developing and being a problem later this week for the AL/FL coast?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Is there anything new with 90L? What are the chances of it developing and being a problem later this week for the AL/FL coast?

Convection has collaborated much further to the
east, near cuba's western coast:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsat.html


This would move west for 2 days, until Tuesday evening,
then feel the influence of a trough that would accelerate
it Northeast.

If this relocates to the east the threat to texas
decreases IMO, and with the trough I would
say it would be a AL/FL panhandle
threat.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Convection has collaborated much further to the
east, near cuba's western coast:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsat.html


This would move west for 2 days, until Tuesday evening,
then feel the influence of a trough that would accelerate
it Northeast.

If this relocates to the east the threat to texas
decreases IMO, and with the trough I would
say it would be a AL/FL panhandle
threat.

The front moving into TX will be weak at best. Our lows in Houston are not even expected to drop below 70 and the latest NWS discussion is calling for it to stall at the coast. So unless the front is stronger than predicted, 90L will probably not be turned northeast toward AL or FL. It might move more north toward the upper TX coast, LA or MS though. We will just have to wait and see what plays out. For the time being, I am still placing my bet on a western or central gulf coast threat if 90L develops.

[canetracker]

Extremeweatherguy,
Of course we still dont have an LLC, but if 90L does do the likely situation now and come near Texas, most all models bend it back N.E. So I still think your scenario is the most likely at this time. However, things can change and it is still to early to speculate. We should have a better idea by tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH


10:30 PM TWO.

[HeeBGBz]

Northeast of the upper low, there may be a mid or low level circulation near 25ºN and 90ºW


Maybe.

It looks to me like there might be a vague spin around 89w 23n.

[HURAKAN]

There is a change in the tone of the TWO.

530:
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER BLAKE

1030:
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

[jaxfladude]

GOM is having trouble supporting strong formation in 2007.

The GOM is being nice for a change...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

GOM is having trouble supporting strong formation in 2007.

The GOM is being nice for a change...

Its unbelieveable how much shear is over the gulf. 2007 has less ACE then 92. Only two systems have more then 1 point of ACE. So systems besides Dean and Felixs have been weak and short lived.

[wxman57]

Nothing there, folks. Just spotty showers in the Gulf. No longer "invest-worthy".

I cranked up the shear machine yesterday at work so that I could eventually take a day off. This is my 15th day at work.

[HURAKAN]

At 06Z 91L and 92L had computer model runs but not for 90L. I guess the NHC is getting ready to unplug this system (if there was one.)

[wxman57]

Hang on a second, it looks like Bones went through a worm hole in his shuttlecraft. He'll be making a statement within the next 24 hours on this system.