TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[gatorcane]

She appears to be holding her own or slightly deteriorating today. It's hard to find the LLC because of the canopy of high and mid level outflow boundaries but note it is still there as shown by the visible floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

But --- she is still on nearly a due west course, maybe 280 degrees and that turn has yet to happen. She just needs to hold on for another 36-48 hours and she may have some more breathing room. The shear should not be as strong in about 2 days.

I reiterate, how can she turn towards the NW when she is now part of the low-level flow? She is bound to take the tracks as outlined by the shallow BAMS and that is nearly W to WNW for 3-5 days.

The problem is that models have a hard time with shallow sheared systems. Two examples that come to mind are Ernesto and Katrina. If Ingrid were a solid TS or hurricane models would be much better at forecasting her track. But in this case, as the other two cases models do get confused.

[BigA]

Does anyone have links to some shear forecast maps? Much thanks!

[cycloneye]

The LATEST at 20:15 UTC

['CaneFreak]

She appears to be holding her own or slightly deteriorating today. It's hard to find the LLC because of the canopy of high and mid level outflow boundaries but note it is still there as shown by the visible floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

But --- she is still on nearly a due west course, maybe 280 degrees and that turn has yet to happen. She just needs to hold on for another 36-48 hours and she may have some more breathing room. The shear should not be as strong in about 2 days.

I reiterate, how can she turn towards the NW when she is now part of the low-level flow? She is bound to take the tracks as outlined by the shallow BAMS and that is nearly W to WNW for 3-5 days.

The problem is that models have a hard time with shallow sheared systems. Two examples that come to mind are Ernesto and Katrina. If Ingrid were a solid TS or hurricane models would be much better at forecasting her track. But in this case, as the other two cases models do get confused.

Once again, I tell you look at the low level flow at 70 to 80 West and 25 to 30 N. There is a WEAKNESS. Do you see it or not? That will turn the cyclone in days 3-4. I am trying to be patient with you but you are not reading my posts. I am TRYING TO HELP YOU OUT.

[Brent]

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.6 WEST OR ABOUT 210
MILES...340 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER SHOULD PASS JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER A
DEVIATION TO THE LEFT COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THOSE ISLANDS ON
MONDAY.

Also shows strengthening in the long range:

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 22.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 24.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 162008
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
408 PM AST SUN SEP 16 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID HAS GAINED A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
CNVTN TODAY AS COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO...AS UPPER TROFFING FROM NE
CARIB INTO EXTREME SE CARIB HAS INDUCED ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR ACROSS
INGRID AND ALLOW FOR A LESSENING OF THE SHEAR PATTERN AND MORE
SUSTAINED CNVTV GROWTH. BASED ON STLT DEPICTION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WE WERE EXPECTING NHC TO UPGRADE INGRID BACK TO A
STORM...BUT CNVTN HAS SINCE LESSENED. HOWEVER...SHOULD THIS TREND
OF INCREASED CNVTN CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...INGRID IS
LIKELY TO REGAIN STORM STRENGTH...WHILE WORKING TOWARDS A WEAKNESS
ACROSS THE W CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 62/63W. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT INGRID MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WHILE SETTLED WITHIN THIS MID
LEVEL WEAKNESS. INGRID WILL INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WIND AND MOISTURE
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ADJUSTMENTS WILL
NEED TO BE MADE ON A DAILY BASIS. HOWEVER...FOR THE SHORT TERM...A
NE TO ENE LLVL FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE ONTO THE ATLC COASTS AND
INTO THE USVI TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH LLVL FLOW THEN BECOMING
VERY WEAK TUESDAY AS INGRID LIFTS N OF OUR LATITUDE.
MARINE...ESE SWELLS FROM INGRID HAVE BEGUN TO HIT BUOY 41043
TODAY...AT A WHOPPING 3-4 FT. DUE TO MILD WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND LACK OF OTHER SWELL ENERGY...INGRID WILL CONTROL LOCAL
MARINE CONDITIONS NEXT 3-5 DAYS. SMALL E TO NE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED
NEXT FEW DAYS...AND ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION WOULD REQUIRE
CHANGES TO THIS.

[Brent]

Slight westward shift again.

[cycloneye]

Yeah,and I am in the cone.

[cycloneye]

96HR VT 20/1800Z 22.5N 65.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 21/1800Z 24.0N 66.0W 45 KT


They increase intensity in 96 hours.

[jaxfladude]

Slight westward shift again.

IS INGRID GOING TO MAKE IT?!?

ANY CHANCE OF A WESTWARD TURN AFTER THE FIVE DAYS, FORECASTED TRACK ENDS???
OR WILL IT GO OUT TO SEA AFTER BRUSHING THE NORTHERN ISLANDS...???

[miamicanes177]

I finally agree with the NHC forecast. They now show intensification in 4-5 days with a track shift to the west. This is in agreement with the trends the models have been showing.

[RL3AO]

Not due north movement on this forecast

[Extremecane]

Last bubble is big of uncertain and convection continues to persist the noerthern outhflow looks good. Also does any one thing a new center is furthur east. Looking more round to:

[skysummit]

LOL....LOOK how wide that cone is now! LOTS of uncertainty.

[bwhorton2007]

I don't know but a few things are with her now rather than against a few hours ago.overall simply amazing how things have played out with this storm.

[jaxfladude]

WILL INGRID END UP BECOMING A CAT 5???
*HIDES*

[BigA]

It does look like shear may slack somewhat soon...
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif


I dont know if this, or any shear graphic is particularly reliable

[bwhorton2007]

jaxfladude i'm not gonna say yes but i'm not gonna say no to you question as this little blob has defied everything thrown at her.

[wxmann_91]

I don't see what they call "low shear" in 5 days. In fact I see that around that time, Ingrid may interact with the TUTT, and then subsequently get bombarded by another round of shear.

Steering currents really collapse it seems around 5 days. However, given the building ridge, I see it curving back to the west. After the second round of heavy shear, Ingrid (or the remnants) should be closing in on the Bahamas and by then the environment might become more favorable for strengthening.

[gatorcane]

Wow -- the NHC just may finally be listening to me?

They expect her to strengthen back to a TS and take amore Westerly track...BUT

look at all that uncertainty...

I still think a shift to the west is in store...the NHC won't make drastic changes on one advisory..

Westward ho Ingrid goes.