TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Gustywind]

Does anyone have links to some shear forecast maps? Much thanks!

yes check it:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... winds.html

[gatorcane]

I don't see what they call "low shear" in 5 days. In fact I see that around that time, Ingrid may interact with the TUTT, and then subsequently get bombarded by another round of shear.

Steering currents really collapse it seems around 5 days. However, given the building ridge, I see it curving back to the west. After the second round of heavy shear, Ingrid (or the remnants) should be closing in on the Bahamas and by then the environment might become more favorable for strengthening.

Wow how much this is reminding me of TD 10/12 from 2005....not that I am predicting that to happen

but wow it is very similar.

I agree at some point that cone is going to have to bend towards the west -- the ridge is forecasted to build in by mid week once the CONUS front sweeps by to the north (and won't pick her up because she will be too shallow)

All it takes is for her to get under a ridge and then conditions should improve for her and let her track west.

[msbee]

Yeah,and I am in the cone.

me too Luis!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I don't see what they call "low shear" in 5 days. In fact I see that around that time, Ingrid may interact with the TUTT, and then subsequently get bombarded by another round of shear.

Steering currents really collapse it seems around 5 days. However, given the building ridge, I see it curving back to the west. After the second round of heavy shear, Ingrid (or the remnants) should be closing in on the Bahamas and by then the environment might become more favorable for strengthening.

Wow how much this is reminding me of TD 10/12 from 2005....not that I am predicting that to happen

but wow it is very similar.

I agree at some point that cone is going to have to bend towards the west -- the ridge is forecasted to build in by mid week once the CONUS front sweeps by to the north (and won't pick her up because she will be too shallow)

All it takes is for her to get under a ridge and then conditions should improve for her and let her track west.

I agree. Whatever is left of Ingrid will probably be shunted west by that ridge-
the same ridge that could allow the caribbean tropical wave to
affect the WGOM next weekend.

[cycloneye]

The LATEST at 20.45 UTC

[Extremecane]

outflow improving looks like center might be furthur east?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I agree with the NHC intensity forecast for 4-5 days
showing TS regeneration.

If a ridge builds in it could get stronger, but for now
I think TS regeneration.

But it will be important to watch the ridge folks.

[Gustywind]

5 pm latest:
http://www.meteo.gp/pro/donnees/satelli ... Tagant.jpg

[wxmann_91]

Note... if the West Carib/GOM entity does strengthen significantly, chances for Ingrid to reintensify would be nearly zero as the outflow from the entity would amplify the ULL.

So yes, while I am confident about Ingrid's track, intensity really is going to be problematic.

[cycloneye]

The LATEST at 21:15 UTC

[storms in NC]

I don't see what they call "low shear" in 5 days. In fact I see that around that time, Ingrid may interact with the TUTT, and then subsequently get bombarded by another round of shear.

Steering currents really collapse it seems around 5 days. However, given the building ridge, I see it curving back to the west. After the second round of heavy shear, Ingrid (or the remnants) should be closing in on the Bahamas and by then the environment might become more favorable for strengthening.

Wow how much this is reminding me of TD 10/12 from 2005....not that I am predicting that to happen

but wow it is very similar.

I agree at some point that cone is going to have to bend towards the west -- the ridge is forecasted to build in by mid week once the CONUS front sweeps by to the north (and won't pick her up because she will be too shallow)

All it takes is for her to get under a ridge and then conditions should improve for her and let her track west.

Well you seem to have done better that NHC has with this. So where is it going to land? LOL

[Fego]

From de NWS in San Juan (4:00 p.m.)

..."TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID HAS GAINED A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
CNVTN TODAY AS COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO...AS UPPER TROFFING FROM NE
CARIB INTO EXTREME SE CARIB HAS INDUCED ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR ACROSS
INGRID AND ALLOW FOR A LESSENING OF THE SHEAR PATTERN AND MORE
SUSTAINED CNVTV GROWTH. BASED ON STLT DEPICTION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WE WERE EXPECTING NHC TO UPGRADE INGRID BACK TO A
STORM...BUT CNVTN HAS SINCE LESSENED. HOWEVER...SHOULD THIS TREND
OF INCREASED CNVTN CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...INGRID IS
LIKELY TO REGAIN STORM STRENGTH...WHILE WORKING TOWARDS A WEAKNESS
ACROSS THE W CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 62/63W. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT INGRID MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WHILE SETTLED WITHIN THIS MID
LEVEL WEAKNESS. INGRID WILL INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WIND AND MOISTURE
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ADJUSTMENTS WILL
NEED TO BE MADE ON A DAILY BASIS. HOWEVER...FOR THE SHORT TERM...A
NE TO ENE LLVL FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE ONTO THE ATLC COASTS AND
INTO THE USVI TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH LLVL FLOW THEN BECOMING
VERY WEAK TUESDAY AS INGRID LIFTS N OF OUR LATITUDE."

&&

[Gustywind]

From de NWS in San Juan (4:00 p.m.)

..."TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID HAS GAINED A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
CNVTN TODAY AS COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO...AS UPPER TROFFING FROM NE
CARIB INTO EXTREME SE CARIB HAS INDUCED ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR ACROSS
INGRID AND ALLOW FOR A LESSENING OF THE SHEAR PATTERN AND MORE
SUSTAINED CNVTV GROWTH. BASED ON STLT DEPICTION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WE WERE EXPECTING NHC TO UPGRADE INGRID BACK TO A
STORM...BUT CNVTN HAS SINCE LESSENED. HOWEVER...SHOULD THIS TREND
OF INCREASED CNVTN CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...INGRID IS
LIKELY TO REGAIN STORM STRENGTH...WHILE WORKING TOWARDS A WEAKNESS
ACROSS THE W CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 62/63W. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT INGRID MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WHILE SETTLED WITHIN THIS MID
LEVEL WEAKNESS. INGRID WILL INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WIND AND MOISTURE
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ADJUSTMENTS WILL
NEED TO BE MADE ON A DAILY BASIS. HOWEVER...FOR THE SHORT TERM...A
NE TO ENE LLVL FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE ONTO THE ATLC COASTS AND
INTO THE USVI TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH LLVL FLOW THEN BECOMING
VERY WEAK TUESDAY AS INGRID LIFTS N OF OUR LATITUDE."

&&

I 've alreday post it Fego , but great to emphasizes on this yeahh....lool

[storms in NC]

Do you all think they counted their chickens before they hatched when they said it was "going out to sea"
It just goes to show you how hard it is at times to say what these Strom's are going to do. Some times it make you think what Mother nature is thinking.

[cycloneye]

The LATEST at 2215 UTC

[Ed Mahmoud]

Do you all think they counted their chickens before they hatched when they said it was "going out to sea"
It just goes to show you how hard it is at times to say what these Strom's are going to do. Some times it make you think what Mother nature is thinking.

[Derek Ortt]

Looks like Ingrid has dissipated based upon the latest satellite data. Just could not survive the day

[Weatherboy1]

I agree Derek -- those last few visible satellite shots seemed to show the circulation breaking down, with well-defined spiral bands giving way to arc-shaped clouds to the west of what used to be the LLC. I think we probably have an open wave at this point, though it could always regenerate -- note this is just my nonprofessional opinion.

[cycloneye]

The LATEST at 2245 UTC

[punkyg]

When is the next quikscat pass.