TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[wxman57]

Latest QuikSCAT - still a well-defined closed circulation...highest winds in the 30-35 kt range.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... Bds100.png

But those strongest winds are about 120 miles east of the broad, weak center. It might still have a circulation, but winds within 50-100 miles of the center are likely below 20kts. And there's no convection within 120 miles of the center. Question is, would this qualify for a TD upgrade if it had been an open wave yesterday? Not without convection near the center. NHC will probably err on the side of caution and continue the advisories through tonight and have a look with visible imagery in the morning. Seems reasonable.

[Sanibel]

Breaking down.

(Saw a waterspout today off Sanibel Causeway that looked like a midwest rope twister)

[bwhorton2007]

Anyone have a recording of TAPS for Ingrid?

[bwhorton2007]

My Jerry watch begins now. Unless something unforseen happens and it isn't going too!

[CrazyC83]

My Jerry watch begins now. Unless something unforseen happens and it isn't going too!

Or if Ingrid is declared dead and regenerates...

['CaneFreak]

The recon plane is still out there...there's the government for you. I guess they figured, "why not?" Lou, you need to be home for any reason, "no." Tom, you need to be home for some reason, "no." "OH, what the heck, this is government $. Lets fly around in the leftover thunderstorms. Does that sound good?" *Everyone in unison: "YEAH".

[Sanibel]

The TUTT looks like it is weakening or closing off into a ULL. But the strongest side is still on Ingrid (or that remnant swirl)

[cycloneye]

Is not a good sign that the 00:00 UTC BAM models haved not comed out.It means that they cant iniciate the run as no defined center can be found.

[Derek Ortt]

SHIPS was run, however

SHIPS is doing an about face and is now keeping hgiher shear over the system

[Coredesat]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I hate saying that it maybe about ready to open up to a tropical wave. What a amazing tutt for a peak of the season, and a La nina none the less. This monster has my hate just like the one in 97. I think this system will be down graded at 11pm est. I would look at the system southwest of the Azores for some development for Jerry.

[HURAKAN]

933
ABNT20 KNHC 170230
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION INGRID...CENTERED ABOUT 160 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

FORECASTER KNABB

[wxman57]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION INGRID...CENTERED ABOUT 160 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

Hmm, I wonder if that means they're not going to kill it, even though it seems to lack a well-defined center and convection?

[fasterdisaster]

I definitely wouldn't stop advisories yet. If it still looks this crappy at 5 AM then that should be the last advisory.

[wxman57]

I definitely wouldn't stop advisories yet. If it still looks this crappy at 5 AM then that should be the last advisory.

But would you START advisories on something so pitiful that was moving into 30+ kt shear?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I definitely wouldn't stop advisories yet. If it still looks this crappy at 5 AM then that should be the last advisory.

But would you START advisories on something so pitiful that was moving into 30+ kt shear?

If this still even has a LLC its about ready to open up any ways. With the 30 knot shear "no" I would not upgrade, but if it had no shear I would be waiting for convection and organizion, before upgrading. There is many other systems I would upgrade before, I would upgrade this. I'm watching the system southwest of the azores.

['CaneFreak]

I definitely wouldn't stop advisories yet. If it still looks this crappy at 5 AM then that should be the last advisory.

But would you START advisories on something so pitiful that was moving into 30+ kt shear?

Let me answer that for him, ahhhhhhhh....NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO....

[Brent]

Down to 30 mph at 11pm and the NHC has no strengthening at all through Day 5.

Track more west again, but it may not matter.

[RL3AO]

ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF INGRID WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TOMORROW.

[Chacor]

A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR INGRID TO STRENGTHEN ON DAYS 3 AND 4 WHEN
THE SHEAR DECREASES A LITTLE...BUT THAT IS ASSUMING THE SYSTEM
STILL EXISTS AT THAT TIME. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
KEEPS THE CYCLONE AS A 25-KT DEPRESSION THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY
PERIOD...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LGEM GUIDANCE...BUT IT MIGHT NOT BE A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NEARLY THAT LONG.