Tropical Depression INGRID: Global & BAM Models

[Vortex]

Nogaps much further west than 12Z run...

[wxmann_91]

I wouldn't take that Euro too seriously . . . that's the third time this season I've seen it try to develop an offshoot of the Columbian low, and neither time did it actually occur.

Though the fact that the GFS develops it as well is a bit more promising, I would (as always) suggest waiting for additional model support and a closer timeframe before jumping on that bandwagon . . .

I have to admit, the OP GFS shows a very favorable upper air pattern over the Western Caribbean starting around 6 days... but yeah, that's fantasy land for the models and I would wait for future trends.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 151235
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1235 UTC SAT SEP 15 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID (AL082007) 20070915 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070915 1200 070916 0000 070916 1200 070917 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.3N 53.3W 17.1N 55.2W 17.9N 57.1W 18.7N 58.5W
BAMD 16.3N 53.3W 17.4N 53.9W 18.2N 54.3W 18.9N 54.7W
BAMM 16.3N 53.3W 16.9N 54.8W 17.4N 56.1W 17.9N 57.2W
LBAR 16.3N 53.3W 17.1N 54.6W 17.7N 56.0W 18.4N 57.6W
SHIP 30KTS 28KTS 27KTS 28KTS
DSHP 30KTS 28KTS 27KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070917 1200 070918 1200 070919 1200 070920 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.3N 59.6W 20.0N 61.1W 20.5N 62.7W 20.9N 64.4W
BAMD 19.5N 54.8W 20.8N 54.8W 23.0N 54.7W 25.4N 52.2W
BAMM 18.2N 58.1W 18.5N 59.5W 19.1N 60.9W 19.8N 62.6W
LBAR 19.0N 59.1W 20.3N 61.3W 22.3N 62.5W 24.2N 62.7W
SHIP 32KTS 40KTS 50KTS 58KTS
DSHP 32KTS 40KTS 50KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.3N LONCUR = 53.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 15.8N LONM12 = 51.2W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 15.2N LONM24 = 49.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Downgraded to TD.Not moving NW but west at 275 degrees.

[Evil Jeremy]

its funny. now the BAMs are the southern and northern outliers!

[Blown Away]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... .html?MR=1
BAMM, GFDL, and GFS now go through Hebert Box. Not that it's a big deal, but if the LLC can hold together and the models continue trending W it could regenerate down the road.

[wzrgirl1]

but remember the hebert box only holds true if the storm is a major when going through it

[gatorcane]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200708_model.html?MR=1
BAMM, GFDL, and GFS now go through Hebert Box. Not that it's a big deal, but if the LLC can hold together and the models continue trending W it could regenerate down the road.

Yes the NHC will need to adjust their track left either at 5pm today or even 11pm tonight (if they want consistent model runs)...I think the NHC is too far right.

Now if this were a deeper system it would have already been in fishland already. But the shear is actually keeping it on a WNW course. So while shear is not allowing it to develop now, it is also keeping it a possible threat to the SE Coast of the US down the road.

Looks like she is already West of the forecast point and even looks to be moving more W over the past hour or so.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 151826
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1826 UTC SAT SEP 15 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID (AL082007) 20070915 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070915 1800 070916 0600 070916 1800 070917 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.4N 54.6W 16.9N 56.4W 17.7N 58.3W 18.2N 59.8W
BAMD 16.4N 54.6W 17.5N 55.2W 18.5N 55.9W 19.4N 56.4W
BAMM 16.4N 54.6W 16.9N 56.1W 17.5N 57.4W 18.0N 58.6W
LBAR 16.4N 54.6W 17.0N 56.1W 17.7N 57.6W 18.4N 59.3W
SHIP 30KTS 28KTS 29KTS 32KTS
DSHP 30KTS 28KTS 29KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070917 1800 070918 1800 070919 1800 070920 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.6N 60.9W 19.1N 63.0W 19.8N 65.2W 20.7N 67.3W
BAMD 20.1N 56.7W 21.7N 57.2W 23.7N 57.2W 25.3N 56.1W
BAMM 18.3N 59.5W 18.9N 61.3W 19.7N 63.1W 20.9N 64.8W
LBAR 18.9N 60.7W 19.9N 63.0W 21.7N 64.7W 23.4N 65.1W
SHIP 36KTS 46KTS 57KTS 66KTS
DSHP 36KTS 46KTS 57KTS 66KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.4N LONCUR = 54.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 52.3W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 15.5N LONM24 = 50.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

SHIP Intensity has it as a hurricane in 120 hours.




Models are trending west.

[gatorcane]

edit as Luis showed the graph above.

Does anybody think the NHC will adjust their track left because of the model shift to the left?

[Blown Away]

Ok is this getting interesting or am I not seeing the big picture?

[gatorcane]

Ok is this getting interesting or am I not seeing the big picture?

Yes it definitely is. Alot of people lost interest in this thing that probably should start paying attention to what is unfolding. Those models take it in the general direction of the SE Bahamas. The NHC hasn't adjusted the track left yet BUT is starting to show a bend to the left in their latest cone. I only think shift lefts and bends to the left are going to continue if you look at model trends today.

IN addition most models are in good agreement of a 500MB high building in by mid week and into next weekend.

As even Derek Ortt said yesterday, we need her to die in the shear or she sould spell trouble down the road.

[bwhorton2007]

I'm the new guy that got everyone upset about ingrid being a fighter.Looks like I might get the last laugh all though the shear could still kill this thing.these new model forecasts are indeed very interesting.

[ericinmia]

I'm the new guy that got everyone upset about ingrid being a fighter.Looks like I might get the last laugh all though the shear could still kill this thing.these new model forecasts are indeed very interesting.

The environment will either be capable of sustaining the TC's LLC or not. Currently the mid level shear is ripping the cloud tops off from the LLC, but the LLC appears to be pretty vigerous and traveling w to wnw. It is beyond my abilities but it will be interesting to see if the environment can support Ingrid long enough that she is still around when the shear relaxes some and she is sitting south of a building 500mb ridge. Of course that is a long couple to few days from now, so who knows what we'll have then.

[Blown Away]

Ok is this getting interesting or am I not seeing the big picture?

Yes it definitely is. Alot of people lost interest in this thing that probably should start paying attention to what is unfolding. Those models take it in the general direction of the SE Bahamas. The NHC hasn't adjusted the track left yet BUT is starting to show a bend to the left in their latest cone. I only think shift lefts and bends to the left are going to continue if you look at model trends today.

IN addition most models are in good agreement of a 500MB high building in by mid week and into next weekend.

As even Derek Ortt said yesterday, we need her to die in the shear or she sould spell trouble down the road.

There may be a high building in but most of these models are bringing whats left of Ingrid a little farther W but they all want to turn her N before she gets even remotely close the the EC. There seems to be a weakness that Ingrid will find, it might be a little farther W than before but not close to the EC.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 160035
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0035 UTC SUN SEP 16 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID (AL082007) 20070916 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070916 0000 070916 1200 070917 0000 070917 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.8N 55.3W 17.4N 57.3W 18.2N 59.1W 18.8N 60.4W
BAMD 16.8N 55.3W 17.9N 56.1W 19.0N 56.8W 19.8N 57.3W
BAMM 16.8N 55.3W 17.4N 56.8W 17.9N 58.2W 18.4N 59.4W
LBAR 16.8N 55.3W 17.7N 56.6W 18.5N 57.8W 19.2N 59.1W
SHIP 30KTS 28KTS 29KTS 32KTS
DSHP 30KTS 28KTS 29KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070918 0000 070919 0000 070920 0000 070921 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.3N 61.5W 20.1N 63.6W 20.9N 65.8W 21.8N 67.8W
BAMD 20.7N 57.4W 22.2N 57.4W 23.7N 57.0W 24.6N 54.7W
BAMM 18.8N 60.3W 19.6N 62.1W 20.5N 64.1W 21.4N 66.1W
LBAR 19.9N 60.1W 21.5N 61.4W 23.9N 61.7W 25.1N 60.2W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 52KTS 62KTS
DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 52KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.8N LONCUR = 55.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 53.3W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 15.8N LONM24 = 51.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

BAMS and BAMM are trending more west.

[artist]

so it looks like we are getting far enough out of the deep tropics for the bamms not to be as good anymore - is that right?

[cycloneye]

so it looks like we are getting far enough out of the deep tropics for the bamms not to be as good anymore - is that right?

Yes,the BAMS dont perform well in higher latituds.

[wzrgirl1]

so it looks like we are getting far enough out of the deep tropics for the bamms not to be as good anymore - is that right?

Yes,the BAMS dont perform well in higher latituds.

so why are they still considered when making forecasts

[artist]

is there a particular cut-off latitude cycloneye, that you kind of watch for?

[cycloneye]

25n.Over that latitud,dont look at them for a forecast.