Tropical Depression INGRID: Global & BAM Models

[JTD]

Does anybody have the 18z GFDL?

[hurricanetrack]

Yes:

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/07091323

Rolls it up at 96 hours.

[jhamps10]

Yes:

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/07091323

Rolls it up at 96 hours.

that link is the 18z for humberto.

[Brent]

Yes:

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/07091323

Rolls it up at 96 hours.

that link is the 18z for humberto.

Scroll down, it's below Humberto.

[wzrgirl1]

you need to scroll down to get td 8

[hurricanetrack]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_054l.gif

Shear is not so bad where Ingrid would presumably be....not yet anyway....

[Meso]

GFDL and HWRF both back to forecasting a hurricane out of it before weakening it,as per the 00z runs

[cycloneye]

6z GFDL Animation

Look at the end of animation what it does with the track.

[boca]

Looks like it bends it back west but its hard to tell with that loop. Hoefully it won't go west long enough to pull an Andrew.

[cycloneye]

6z HWRF Animation

The 6z HWRF has a hurricane thru the ladder part of animation.

[hiflyer]

There are about 70-80,000 folks sitting on an old coral reef out in the Atlantic who may not be considering this as a fish....Bermuda. This last HWRF is going to raise the alert level out there I would suspect.

[canegrl04]

6z HWRF Animation

The 6z HWRF has a hurricane thru the ladder part of animation.

Out of all the models,HWRF is usually the best at forecasting intensification.They were the first to forecast Dean as a cat.5

[HURAKAN]

808
WHXX01 KWBC 141337
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1337 UTC FRI SEP 14 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID (AL082007) 20070914 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070914 1200 070915 0000 070915 1200 070916 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.1N 49.7W 15.9N 51.2W 17.0N 52.8W 17.8N 54.0W
BAMD 15.1N 49.7W 16.1N 50.6W 17.3N 51.4W 18.6N 52.0W
BAMM 15.1N 49.7W 15.9N 51.0W 16.8N 52.2W 17.6N 53.1W
LBAR 15.1N 49.7W 16.1N 50.7W 17.4N 51.9W 18.7N 53.5W
SHIP 40KTS 43KTS 44KTS 46KTS
DSHP 40KTS 43KTS 44KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070916 1200 070917 1200 070918 1200 070919 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.5N 55.2W 20.1N 57.2W 21.8N 58.6W 23.5N 59.8W
BAMD 19.8N 52.5W 22.3N 53.0W 25.1N 52.1W 28.8N 48.0W
BAMM 18.3N 53.9W 19.5N 55.3W 21.2N 56.1W 23.5N 56.1W
LBAR 19.9N 55.2W 22.5N 58.8W 24.4N 61.5W 25.4N 63.7W
SHIP 45KTS 46KTS 48KTS 51KTS
DSHP 45KTS 46KTS 48KTS 51KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.1N LONCUR = 49.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 48.5W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 47.6W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 45NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

SHIP intensity model mantains it as a storm during the whole run until 120 hours.

[Derek Ortt]

the shear is much lower in this SHIPS than the previous couple

[ronjon]

12Z CMC maintains Ingrid as a tropical cyclone into the SE Bahamas in 5 days. Takes a much more southern route than indicated by NHC.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007091412&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Ivanhater]

12Z CMC maintains Ingrid as a tropical cyclone into the SE Bahamas in 5 days. Takes a much more southern route than indicated by NHC.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007091412&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Well that certainly is interesting...shoots another tropical storm across Florida into the gulf...keeps the ridge pretty strong...even if it is the canadian..a scenerio I will be watching for

[cycloneye]

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.09.2007



TROPICAL STORM INGRID ANALYSED POSITION : 15.4N 49.3W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082007



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 14.09.2007 15.4N 49.3W WEAK

00UTC 15.09.2007 16.3N 51.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 15.09.2007 16.4N 52.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 16.09.2007 18.6N 53.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 16.09.2007 19.4N 54.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 17.09.2007 20.5N 56.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 17.09.2007 21.1N 57.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 18.09.2007 21.9N 58.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 18.09.2007 22.3N 59.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 19.09.2007 22.6N 59.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 19.09.2007 23.0N 59.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 20.09.2007 23.0N 59.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.09.2007 23.1N 58.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE



http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... /ukmet.txt

12z UKMET bends more west in the end.

[DESTRUCTION5]

These big boy models are still hanging on to her...UK little further south this time around..

[HURAKAN]

Luis, UKMET is bending east. Look at the longitudes, goes from 59.5 to 58.8.

00UTC 19.09.2007 22.6N 59.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 19.09.2007 23.0N 59.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 20.09.2007 23.0N 59.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.09.2007 23.1N 58.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE