Tropical Depression INGRID: Global & BAM Models

[jhamps10]

12z EURO

It show a weak low,but the biggie is to the left.

yeah, that biggie got it's own thread on at least 4 different boards right now.

but keeping on track of Ingrid, she is fighting hard that is for sure, blowing up more convection near the center.

[TSmith274]

12z EURO

It show a weak low,but the biggie is to the left.

Interesting. What's the intensity on that? Looks formidable.

[HURAKAN]

12z EURO

It show a weak low,but the biggie is to the left.

Interesting. What's the intensity on that? Looks formidable.

That's in 240 hrs, meaning 10 days into the future. Only worth for entertainment.

[Blown Away]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html
The BAMM & GFDL are left of their previous runs.

[TSmith274]

12z EURO

It show a weak low,but the biggie is to the left.

Interesting. What's the intensity on that? Looks formidable.

That's in 240 hrs, meaning 10 days into the future. Only worth for entertainment.

Yeah I just wanted to familiarize myself with the intensity depicted in the EURO.

[deltadog03]

That shows a fairly strong hurricane. Now, THAT is from a global model that will never really have a good idea on strength.

[bvigal]

18z model map

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 150053
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0053 UTC SAT SEP 15 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID (AL082007) 20070915 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070915 0000 070915 1200 070916 0000 070916 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.7N 51.1W 16.7N 52.7W 17.7N 54.0W 18.5N 55.4W
BAMD 15.7N 51.1W 16.6N 51.9W 17.6N 52.7W 18.3N 53.3W
BAMM 15.7N 51.1W 16.4N 52.4W 17.2N 53.6W 17.7N 54.7W
LBAR 15.7N 51.1W 16.7N 52.4W 17.8N 53.8W 18.6N 55.5W
SHIP 35KTS 34KTS 35KTS 35KTS
DSHP 35KTS 34KTS 35KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070917 0000 070918 0000 070919 0000 070920 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.4N 56.5W 20.8N 58.0W 22.2N 59.2W 23.5N 60.6W
BAMD 18.9N 53.8W 20.2N 54.3W 22.7N 54.2W 26.1N 53.3W
BAMM 18.2N 55.6W 18.7N 56.8W 19.6N 57.7W 20.9N 58.9W
LBAR 19.4N 57.1W 20.8N 59.8W 22.7N 61.1W 24.9N 60.9W
SHIP 37KTS 41KTS 48KTS 57KTS
DSHP 37KTS 41KTS 48KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.7N LONCUR = 51.1W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 15.1N LONM12 = 49.7W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 48.5W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 35NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 45NM

[Coredesat]

00z models:

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 78 hours has Ingrid hanging around.



00z GFS at 90 hours.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 102 hours.



00z GFS at 114 hours.



00z GFS at 132 hours.

[cycloneye]

144 hours



Still GFS has Ingrid in 7 days.

[Vortex]

Also possible GOM system...

[cycloneye]

156 hours



Still there.

[cycloneye]

168 hours

[Vortex]

00Z CMC rolling in..

H+48 nearing northeastern carribean islands 18/60W



http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 531_50.gif

[Vortex]

H72 CMC nearing PR

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 92_100.gif

[cycloneye]

264 hours



It took this long for GFS to finnally have it ejected to the NE,although no as fast as normally a system do as they move out to sea.

[Vortex]

00z Nogaps rolling in

Further west as well thru 48..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2007091500

[WindRunner]

I wouldn't take that Euro too seriously . . . that's the third time this season I've seen it try to develop an offshoot of the Columbian low, and neither time did it actually occur.

Though the fact that the GFS develops it as well is a bit more promising, I would (as always) suggest waiting for additional model support and a closer timeframe before jumping on that bandwagon . . .