Tropical Depression INGRID: Global & BAM Models

[cycloneye]

161121
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID 08L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 16

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.9 56.4 280./ 9.9
6 17.0 57.6 278./11.5
12 17.0 58.0 274./ 4.4
18 17.1 59.2 275./10.9
24 17.5 59.2 357./ 3.9
30 17.9 59.8 301./ 6.8
36 18.5 59.9 353./ 6.4
42 18.6 60.6 272./ 6.6
48 19.2 60.8 341./ 6.9
54 19.5 61.3 301./ 4.8
60 20.0 62.1 300./ 9.2
66 20.3 62.2 339./ 3.9
72 21.0 62.5 340./ 6.6
78 21.6 63.1 315./ 8.4
84 22.0 63.7 306./ 7.1
90 22.3 63.9 329./ 3.6
96 22.7 64.1 325./ 4.3
102 23.0 64.3 326./ 3.3
108 23.1 64.2 39./ 2.0
114 23.3 63.7 68./ 4.9
120 23.7 63.7 3./ 3.6
126 24.0 63.3 48./ 5.1

In this 6z run,GFDL doesnt dissipate Ingrid.However at the end of run it does n about face in the track.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 161229
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1229 UTC SUN SEP 16 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID (AL082007) 20070916 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070916 1200 070917 0000 070917 1200 070918 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.1N 57.5W 17.8N 59.4W 18.7N 60.6W 19.0N 61.3W
BAMD 17.1N 57.5W 18.0N 58.2W 18.5N 58.8W 18.9N 59.2W
BAMM 17.1N 57.5W 17.7N 58.9W 18.1N 60.2W 18.5N 61.1W
LBAR 17.1N 57.5W 17.9N 58.7W 18.6N 59.9W 19.2N 61.0W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 34KTS 37KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 34KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070918 1200 070919 1200 070920 1200 070921 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 62.4W 19.9N 63.9W 21.0N 65.2W 21.4N 65.7W
BAMD 19.1N 59.7W 19.9N 61.1W 21.0N 62.5W 22.1N 62.9W
BAMM 18.7N 62.1W 19.5N 64.1W 20.4N 66.2W 20.7N 67.8W
LBAR 19.6N 62.1W 21.3N 63.8W 23.3N 64.2W 24.6N 63.0W
SHIP 40KTS 49KTS 59KTS 65KTS
DSHP 40KTS 49KTS 59KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.1N LONCUR = 57.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 16.7N LONM12 = 55.4W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 16.3N LONM24 = 53.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

SHIP makes it a hurricane in 5 days.

[wzrgirl1]

trending west...should be an interesting few days

[SouthFloridawx]

If it remains alive, maybe we'll be looking at a Jeanne type loop.

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 161717
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID 08L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 16

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.2 57.6 280./ 9.9
6 16.9 58.1 245./ 5.9
12 16.6 59.0 251./ 8.7
18 17.0 60.0 292./10.7
24 17.1 60.7 274./ 6.7
30 17.5 61.1 311./ 5.6

STORM DISSIPATED AT 30 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

30 hours of life,the GFDL gives Ingrid.

[cycloneye]

KWBC 161853
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1853 UTC SUN SEP 16 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID (AL082007) 20070916 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070916 1800 070917 0600 070917 1800 070918 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.3N 58.2W 18.0N 59.9W 18.7N 60.9W 18.7N 61.8W
BAMD 17.3N 58.2W 17.9N 58.8W 18.4N 59.1W 18.7N 59.5W
BAMM 17.3N 58.2W 17.7N 59.5W 18.2N 60.6W 18.4N 61.6W
LBAR 17.3N 58.2W 17.9N 59.2W 18.6N 60.3W 19.2N 61.4W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 35KTS 38KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 35KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070918 1800 070919 1800 070920 1800 070921 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 63.0W 19.8N 65.0W 20.6N 66.9W 20.8N 68.4W
BAMD 18.9N 59.9W 19.4N 61.0W 20.1N 62.2W 20.8N 63.4W
BAMM 18.8N 62.6W 19.5N 64.5W 20.0N 66.6W 20.4N 68.5W
LBAR 19.8N 62.5W 21.3N 64.3W 22.8N 65.0W 23.5N 64.1W
SHIP 41KTS 46KTS 55KTS 60KTS
DSHP 41KTS 46KTS 55KTS 60KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.3N LONCUR = 58.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 16.9N LONM12 = 56.4W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 16.5N LONM24 = 54.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Ivanhater]

[Extremecane]

BAMN models are more west

[SouthFloridawx]

BAMN models are more west

With a weaker system, it's going to move more west anyway...

[cycloneye]

862
WHXX04 KWBC 162321
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID 08L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 16

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.3 58.2 285./ 8.9
6 17.1 58.9 257./ 7.1
12 17.2 59.7 277./ 7.1
18 17.2 60.4 266./ 7.1
24 17.5 60.7 314./ 4.2
30 17.5 61.2 277./ 4.8
36 17.7 61.4 302./ 2.7
42 18.0 62.1 292./ 7.0
48 18.5 62.7 311./ 7.4
54 18.6 63.2 287./ 5.4
60 19.0 63.6 321./ 5.5
66 19.4 64.2 301./ 6.7
72 19.7 65.0 292./ 8.2
78 20.2 65.1 343./ 5.1

STORM DISSIPATED AT 78 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

18z GFDL gives Ingrid a little more time (78) hours to survive.The 12z one was shorter in time to dissipate (30 hours)