Tropical Depression INGRID: Global & BAM Models

[HURAKAN]

Let the models run here!!!

[cycloneye]

477
WHXX01 KWBC 091327
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1327 UTC SUN SEP 9 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912007) 20070909 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070909 1200 070910 0000 070910 1200 070911 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 33.0W 10.4N 34.6W 10.7N 36.0W 11.1N 37.2W
BAMD 10.0N 33.0W 10.4N 35.1W 10.7N 37.2W 10.8N 39.1W
BAMM 10.0N 33.0W 10.4N 34.9W 10.6N 36.7W 10.9N 38.3W
LBAR 10.0N 33.0W 10.5N 35.4W 10.9N 38.3W 11.5N 41.1W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 33KTS 41KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 33KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070911 1200 070912 1200 070913 1200 070914 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 38.1W 13.6N 39.5W 16.3N 42.2W 19.1N 46.4W
BAMD 10.9N 40.9W 11.1N 44.0W 11.6N 46.5W 11.9N 48.5W
BAMM 11.1N 39.8W 12.1N 42.1W 13.5N 43.4W 14.7N 45.1W
LBAR 11.9N 43.9W 12.8N 49.2W 13.5N 52.9W 13.5N 55.0W
SHIP 51KTS 66KTS 72KTS 75KTS
DSHP 51KTS 66KTS 72KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 33.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 9.8N LONM12 = 30.5W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 9.6N LONM24 = 28.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

The BAM family needs to get together and talk about days 3-5!!!

[cycloneye]

The only one of the BAM models that go fishing is the BAMS.The rest go west to westnorthwest.

[Meso]

The SHIPS is showing some pretty rapid strengthening,it could be an issue if it moves west.Even if there is a weakness,if it doesn't catch it early,could end up being a small threat for the islands.

[canegrl04]

I'm anxious to see what GFS,GDFL and NOGAPS show for 91L

[Meso]

[canegrl04]

Unlike Dean and Felix,initialization points more northward with the models.Looks unlikely to be a CA threat. US or out to sea with this one

[wxman57]

High pressure north of 91L is much weaker than with Felix or Dean. This one has a good chance of recurving out to sea. Much better chance of developing than that 90L in the southern Gulf.

[Gustywind]

Cycloneye wrote:
"The only one of the BAM models that go fishing is the BAMS.The rest go west to westnorthwest".

I 've noticed that, firts plots does'nt take it far away of the islands Luis... , to close for comfort hope it will fish quicky because the more west track before his classification in Td in the next 48h put us in a suspicious position. The more it develops quickly is good news for us, but the later meant a little worrying trend...
Only one model for the fish, doesn't like this for the moment hope this will change in the next 24h!!!

[O Town]

Interesting how far apart the BAMs are, they usually are pretty close together.

[Derek Ortt]

that implies some strong NE shear may occur over the system

[Vortex]

Agree with Wxman...Given the weakness in later periods as indicated by the globals at this point it's likely to recurve well east of the islands...

[wxman57]

Even though this is my 14th straight 10-15 hour day shift, I'd take a fish storm out of this. I have a bet with my boss that there are at least 5 named storms in September. Winner buys the other lunch. Had 2 the first week, need 3 more named storms.

That said, 91L doesn't look like it's going to develop today or tomorrow, or probably the next day. Maybe down the road in 3-4 days. It does look considerably more impressive than 90L.

[ROCK]

Even though this is my 14th straight 10-15 hour day shift, I'd take a fish storm out of this. I have a bet with my boss that there are at least 5 named storms in September. Winner buys the other lunch. Had 2 the first week, need 3 more named storms.

That said, 91L doesn't look like it's going to develop today or tomorrow, or probably the next day. Maybe down the road in 3-4 days. It does look considerably more impressive than 90L.

You might get that lunch with some new activity near the Leeward islands today. That BTW looks a lot better than 90L or 91L at this pont.


but back on topic- 91L does not develope in 4 days your talking a track more westward and a threat to the islands. Dr Masters did say this is a similar synopic set-up as which spawned Dean.

[hurricanetrack]

The longer it takes to develop, the more the potential threat to land, generally speaking.

[cycloneye]

The longer it takes to develop, the more the potential threat to land, generally speaking.

Agree 100% with that.

[Gustywind]

hurricanetrack wrote:
The longer it takes to develop, the more the potential threat to land, generally speaking.

Cycloneye wrote:
Agree 100% with that.

Absolutely guys , hey Luis what are you thougts concerning the path?

[Gustywind]

If it develops later i tkink that the chances are higher for a slight threat on our islands...day after day if it continues like that...and apparently no developement before 48-72h...not good, the worst trend for a beginning!

[crownweather]

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL912007 09/09/07 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 29 33 41 51 60 66 70 72 73 75
V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 29 33 41 51 60 66 70 72 73 75
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 28 32 37 43 48 54 58 63

SHEAR (KTS) 6 8 8 11 10 6 9 10 9 8 10 9 5
SHEAR DIR 82 138 73 90 82 76 19 38 35 63 83 126 32
SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.9
POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 130 130 130 128 127 125 122 119 119 120 121
ADJ. POT. INT. 132 129 128 128 127 125 123 120 116 112 111 112 112
200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.3 -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 9
700-500 MB RH 71 71 69 68 66 66 68 68 71 75 69 69 62
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 76 80 80 67 57 48 49 47 42 21 14 13 11
200 MB DIV 66 74 94 95 73 80 58 84 60 90 61 77 19
LAND (KM) 1630 1602 1582 1560 1544 1544 1476 1394 1345 1346 1363 1384 1352
LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.5 12.1 12.8 13.5 14.2 14.7
LONG(DEG W) 33.0 34.0 34.9 35.8 36.7 38.3 39.8 41.0 42.1 42.8 43.4 44.0 45.1
STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 9 12 10 8 11 11 11 11 11 9 10 10 12

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=69.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 8.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 30. 40. 47. 52. 54. 55. 58.

SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 9. 13. 21. 31. 40. 46. 50. 52. 53. 55.

** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 09/09/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3

Scaled RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 09/09/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY