Tropical Depression INGRID: Global & BAM Models

[cycloneye]

oops my bad,yes

[Ivanhater]

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF Animation

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z HWRF Animation

Another that not only hangs on but Strenghtens Ingrid in the long term..

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS Animation



And yet another global model hangs on Ingrid.

[Brent]

[jhamps10]

heck UKMET not only turns it east, it does so VERY sharply too. I am not liking the looks of that HWRF run. Looks like it bends back west again towards the end of the run.. I'd have to look back in the books, but didn't Andrew do something like this at around that location?

[jhamps10]

12z NOGAPS Animation



And yet another global model hangs on Ingrid.

yeah, but it also looks to go fishy,fishy,fishy.

[skysummit]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1829 UTC FRI SEP 14 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID (AL082007) 20070914 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070914 1800 070915 0600 070915 1800 070916 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 50.3W 16.1N 51.9W 17.2N 53.4W 17.7N 54.5W
BAMD 15.4N 50.3W 16.4N 51.2W 17.5N 52.1W 18.4N 52.7W
BAMM 15.4N 50.3W 16.0N 51.7W 16.7N 53.0W 17.2N 54.1W
LBAR 15.4N 50.3W 16.1N 51.3W 17.3N 52.7W 18.2N 54.4W
SHIP 35KTS 37KTS 40KTS 41KTS
DSHP 35KTS 37KTS 40KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070916 1800 070917 1800 070918 1800 070919 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.2N 55.7W 19.1N 57.6W 20.1N 59.1W 21.4N 60.4W
BAMD 19.2N 53.2W 20.6N 54.0W 22.9N 54.5W 26.5N 53.6W
BAMM 17.6N 55.1W 18.0N 56.9W 18.6N 58.3W 20.0N 59.8W
LBAR 19.1N 56.1W 20.7N 59.4W 22.3N 62.0W 23.6N 64.0W
SHIP 43KTS 47KTS 53KTS 63KTS
DSHP 43KTS 47KTS 53KTS 63KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.4N LONCUR = 50.3W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 14.9N LONM12 = 49.0W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 14.3N LONM24 = 48.1W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 45NM

$$
NNNN

[jhamps10]

another set of models calling it to strengthen with the ships. Guys, looks like Ingrid if she can make it thru the shear, will be a problem on our hands in the US.

[cycloneye]

Intensity decreased to 35kts in initial plot.However SHIP intensity goes up to 63kts,more than the past run.

[Derek Ortt]

that is because the shear weakens to a whole 3KT according to SHIPS in 120 hours

['CaneFreak]

that is because the shear weakens to a whole 3KT according to SHIPS in 120 hours

and you know Derek, for some reason I just dont see that happening. I cant imagine why can you?? Yep, conditions are going to be darn right hostile across the basin over the coming week and if the GFS is correct in its setup for the long term, Fall may be coming earlier than expected at least according to this mornings run. It showed a ULL coming down from the Great Lakes 384 hours out; NOT GOOD FOR TCs.

[Derek Ortt]

2 points

1. I am stunned that so many think that model NCEP is the best model. I wouldn't trust its 24 hour upper air forecast, much less its 15 day forecast
2. I cannot see that dramatic decrease in shear; however, the shear may not be quite as bad as first thought. I still, am not ready to suscribe to 3KT of shear. Other models are not as high with the shear as is model NCEP

i'd love for Ingrid to just die a miserable death so I can watch mickelson this week-end in peace

[jhamps10]

2 points

1. I am stunned that so many think that model NCEP is the best model. I wouldn't trust its 24 hour upper air forecast, much less its 15 day forecast
2. I cannot see that dramatic decrease in shear; however, the shear may not be quite as bad as first thought. I still, am not ready to suscribe to 3KT of shear. Other models are not as high with the shear as is model NCEP

i'd love for Ingrid to just die a miserable death so I can watch mickelson this week-end in peace

I don't think anyone is ready to agree with that little of shear, less shear than we thought yesterday, heck yeah. but 3 kt's period no. actually wasn't Dean and Felix in a bit more shear than 3 kts when it bombed?

[Derek Ortt]

I also do not agree with 3KT of shear

As for the NOGAPS... it is too soon to say, if it is an out to sea storm as there is a 500mb high building to the north of the system at the end of the period

[canegrl04]

nogps must think Ingrid will be a hurricane in the next couple of days

[Derek Ortt]

I would suggest that some actually look at the meteorological data before proclaiming this a miss. How can this recurve immediately unless the UKMET scenario of a short wave capturing the system verifies

The NOGAPS solution DOES NOT RECURVE THE STORM. Unless you consider it possible to move through a 500mb ridge (only model NCEP has indicated that happening before and of course it was wrong)

[Derek Ortt]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... hour=144hr

storm is moving NW to NNW at this time and would likely threaten Bermuda at the least

[cycloneye]

12z EURO

It show a weak low,but the biggie is to the left.