Tropical Storm NARI (0711) in WPAC

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2007 Time : 040000 UTC
Lat : 24:54:19 N Lon : 128:14:41 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 953.8mb/ 90.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 5.0 5.7 6.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -0.2mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 9 km

Center Temp : -25.0C Cloud Region Temp : -71.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Typhoon Hunter]

Note for Admin - please can someone update the current storms info for Wpac, it's still listing Danas and Fitow which are history. Thanks.

Really impressive work by Nari, caught everyone off guard. Radar loop out of Naha is great too! JMA are doing hourly updates due to the close proximity of the storm to Okinawa.

[Coredesat]

I can't do that, only the admins can. I'll bug them next time I see them.

Looking like it's headed right for Okinawa:

[CherlynV]

Joy.

Although it makes sense... it is common knowledge here that typhoons only hit us on the weekends.

The feeder bands seem to weaken as they hit the island - the winds here are light, and there is no rain. Just overcast skies.

[CherlynV]

Good radar loop. Click on Okinawa to zoom in.

http://weathernews.jp/radar/

~Cherlyn

[Chacor]

JTWC just issued a T5.0 constraints-breaking Dvorak fix.

[wxmann_91]

Note for Admin - please can someone update the current storms info for Wpac, it's still listing Danas and Fitow which are history. Thanks.

Really impressive work by Nari, caught everyone off guard. Radar loop out of Naha is great too! JMA are doing hourly updates due to the close proximity of the storm to Okinawa.

We really should give one of the members here complete control in changing the Current storms list. I'd nominate Chacor.

[Chacor]

JTWC just issued a T5.0 constraints-breaking Dvorak fix.

And JMA's 06Z fix was T5.5. Would not be surprised to see JMA up to 80 or 85 kt.

[Chacor]

Right on the dot.

332
WTPQ20 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0711 NARI (0711)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 25.0N 128.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 150600UTC 28.0N 126.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 160600UTC 32.0N 126.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 170600UTC 36.8N 129.6E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

[Coredesat]

Note for Admin - please can someone update the current storms info for Wpac, it's still listing Danas and Fitow which are history. Thanks.

Really impressive work by Nari, caught everyone off guard. Radar loop out of Naha is great too! JMA are doing hourly updates due to the close proximity of the storm to Okinawa.

We really should give one of the members here complete control in changing the Current storms list. I'd nominate Chacor.

I'd do it, but apparently the board's technology prohibits the changing of forum descriptions by anyone but the admins.

[HurricaneBill]

This looks like it's going to take a path similar to (Super) Typhoon Maemi in 2003. Hopefully, Nari won't be of similar intensity.

[CherlynV]

This looks like it's going to take a path similar to (Super) Typhoon Maemi in 2003. Hopefully, Nari won't be of similar intensity.

Yikes. I remember when that went through - I was up forecasting on mainland Japan at the time. Fortunately Kadena AB here on Okinawa only gusted up to 51kts.

[alan1961]

Joy.

Although it makes sense... it is common knowledge here that typhoons only hit us on the weekends.

The feeder bands seem to weaken as they hit the island - the winds here are light, and there is no rain. Just overcast skies.

yes cherlyn..they also always seem to hit in the overnight hours too

[CherlynV]

Joy.

Although it makes sense... it is common knowledge here that typhoons only hit us on the weekends.

The feeder bands seem to weaken as they hit the island - the winds here are light, and there is no rain. Just overcast skies.

yes cherlyn..they also always seem to hit in the overnight hours too

I know, right?!

It is dark here now, but the winds are roaring!

[CherlynV]

RODN 140955Z AUTO 07030G42KT 2900 -RA BR FEW001 BKN024 27/26 A2945 RMK AO2 PK WND 07042/0948 VIS 1100V8000 CIG 014V042 PRESFR SLP972 P0018 T02730256 TSNO

ROAH 140930Z 05026G43KT 4000 SHRA FEW010 BKN015 SCT020TCU 27/25 Q0995 RMK 2CU010 6CU015 4TCU020 A2938 TCU OHD-W MOV W

[Chacor]

Wow, 42 kt already. Only going to get worse from here...

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That eye looks like it is upper cat3 or lower cat4 at least. WOW.

[Chacor]

Naha most recently reported 16 m/s winds and a 995.2 hPa pressure.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &SIZE=full

I agree with lower 3 at least...This is a nice looking storm. The wind field is very tight likely.