Tropical Storm NARI (0711) in WPAC

#81 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Sep 14, 2007 11:01 am

Latest:

Chacor · #82 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Sep 14, 2007 11:05 am

WOW!

947
WTPQ20 RJTD 141500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0711 NARI (0711)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141500UTC 26.2N 126.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 151500UTC 29.5N 126.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 161200UTC 32.7N 126.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 171200UTC 36.0N 127.7E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

100 kt is in good agreement with the JTWC's 115 kt.

Chacor · #83 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Sep 14, 2007 11:13 am

Kumejima reported 30 m/s winds (58 kt/67 mph) and a 949.6 hPa pressure at 1500Z. The airport on Kumejima reported higher winds, 48 m/s - 93 knots/107 mph.

#84 Postby **RL3AO** » Fri Sep 14, 2007 11:22 am

Amazing. Lets see if it can match Sepat (110kt).

#85 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Sep 14, 2007 11:25 am

Latest:

Chacor · #86 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Sep 14, 2007 11:25 am

Winds on Kumejima have lessened. The western part of the island is now in the eye. Kumejima Station (eastern part of the island) reporting a 948.4 hPa pressure.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today- ... eaCode=000

apocalypt-flyer · #87 Postby **apocalypt-flyer** » Fri Sep 14, 2007 11:46 am

Pretty, tiny but pretty.

And I think everybody should take the TS -> Cat 4 in 36 hours with a pinch of salt. This probably was a TS when the *slow* JTWC confirmed a TD and a Typhoon when they said TS.

#88 Postby **RL3AO** » Fri Sep 14, 2007 11:52 am

Please remember they use 10-min avg. So 65kt from the JMA is 85kt+ from the JTWC.

#89 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Sep 14, 2007 12:26 pm

Latest:

#90 Postby **P.K.** » Fri Sep 14, 2007 12:43 pm

Looks like I angered Nari by daring to update my TS vs 100kt TY graph for the first time this year yesterday evening...!

Year Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Pressure (hPa) Wind (kt) Category Image
2007 9 13 00 21.8 134.2 1000 30 2 Image
2007 9 13 03 22.3 133.4 1000 30 2 Image
2007 9 13 06 22.7 132.9 998 35 3 Image
2007 9 13 09 23.0 132.6 996 40 3 Image
2007 9 13 12 23.2 132.0 992 45 3 Image
2007 9 13 15 23.7 131.2 990 45 3 Image
2007 9 13 18 24.0 130.4 985 50 4 Image
2007 9 13 21 24.2 129.7 980 55 4 Image
2007 9 14 00 24.4 129.4 970 65 5 Image
2007 9 14 03 24.7 128.7 960 75 5 Image
2007 9 14 06 25.0 128.1 955 85 5 Image
2007 9 14 09 25.4 127.7 955 85 5 Image
2007 9 14 12 25.7 127.2 945 90 5 Image
2007 9 14 15 26.2 126.8 945 100 5 Image

So an increase of 55kts (-40hPa) in 24 hours and an increase of 70kts (-55hPa) in just 36 hours!

http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/summary/wnp/l/200711.html.en

#91 Postby **RL3AO** » Fri Sep 14, 2007 12:45 pm

The JMA lowered the pressure to 935mb.

Ptarmigan · #92 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Fri Sep 14, 2007 1:00 pm

Nari is small. It too is now a Category 4.

#93 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Sep 14, 2007 1:58 pm

I'd say it is very possible we have Super Typhoon Nari right now...

Coredesat · #94 Postby **Coredesat** » Fri Sep 14, 2007 2:07 pm

Nope, weakened a bit.

WTJP21 RJTD 141800
WARNING 141800.
WARNING VALID 151800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 0711 NARI (0711) 940 HPA
AT 26.7N 126.5E WEST OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 28.0N 126.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 28.8N 125.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 30.0N 124.7E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 32.5N 125.0E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

#95 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Sep 14, 2007 2:56 pm

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2007 Time : 183300 UTC
Lat : 26:48:57 N Lon : 126:23:23 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 913.2mb/127.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -0.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +20.8C Cloud Region Temp : -70.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

Coredesat · #96 Postby **Coredesat** » Fri Sep 14, 2007 4:28 pm

Indeed, Nari continuing to break the Dvorak constraints:

894
TPPN10 PGTW 142110

A. TYPHOON 12W (NARI)

B. 14/2030Z

C. 27.2N/1

D. 126.2E/1

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS (14/1730Z)

G. IR/EIR LLCC

05A/PBO SM IRREG EYE/ANMTN.

ROACH

#97 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Sep 14, 2007 7:37 pm

Seems to be weakening now; looks like it has peaked after an impressive bout of rapid deepening...

Chacor · #98 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Sep 14, 2007 8:42 pm

Absolutely amazing what this storm did - ESPECIALLY at its latitude of above 25N.

Coredesat · #99 Postby **Coredesat** » Fri Sep 14, 2007 8:59 pm

Models:

ST10 and ST11 are STIPS and Decay STIPS, the WPAC version of SHIPS.

HurricaneBill · #100 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Fri Sep 14, 2007 10:02 pm

Koreans might want to start making preparations.

Tropical Storm NARI (0711) in WPAC

Re: Typhoon NARI (0711) in WPAC

Re: Typhoon NARI (0711) in WPAC

Re: Typhoon NARI (0711) in WPAC

Re: Typhoon NARI (0711) in WPAC

Who is online