Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[wxman57]

Dr. McCoy has an announcement to make. He wants me to tell you all that he's deeply sorry for declaring 90L dead prematurely. He should always keep in mind that any tropical wave over warm, tropical waters does have the potential to spin up rapidly should the right conditions develop.

And I'd like to remind everyone why I have always said that you cannot rely on intensity forecasts of "only a Cat 1 or Cat 2" to judge whether or not you'll "ride it out". Intensity forecasts are almost a guess, sometimes. An educated guess, true, but we just don't have all the data and all the knowledge to correctly predict intensity even in the short term. So if you live in a coastal flood zone and ANY storm is threatening, even a "weak tropical storm", you'd better be prepared for something much worse.

Oh, here's Bones:

[jaxfladude]

Dr. McCoy has an announcement to make. He wants me to tell you all that he's deeply sorry for declaring 90L dead prematurely. He should always keep in mind that any tropical wave over warm, tropical waters does have the potential to spin up rapidly should the right conditions develop.

And I'd like to remind everyone why I have always said that you cannot rely on intensity forecasts of "only a Cat 1 or Cat 2" to judge whether or not you'll "ride it out". Intensity forecasts are almost a guess, sometimes. An educated guess, true, but we just don't have all the data and all the knowledge to correctly predict intensity even in the short term. So if you live in a coastal flood zone and ANY storm is threatening, even a "weak tropical storm", you'd better be prepared for something much worse.

Oh, here's Bones:

God Bless all of you Pro Mets and keep up the good job.....

[Extremecane]

interesting that we are 3 for 3 of streignthing hurricanes before landfall

[Ptarmigan]

interesting that we are 3 for 3 of streignthing hurricanes before landfall

Yeah, I noticed that too. 2005 didn't have that. Sure, there were four Category 5 hurricanes, but none of them made landfall as a Category 5. Having two Category 5 hurricane doesn't happen often either. Usually, it's about once every 12 years or something like that.

[Ptarmigan]

Dr. McCoy has an announcement to make. He wants me to tell you all that he's deeply sorry for declaring 90L dead prematurely. He should always keep in mind that any tropical wave over warm, tropical waters does have the potential to spin up rapidly should the right conditions develop.

And I'd like to remind everyone why I have always said that you cannot rely on intensity forecasts of "only a Cat 1 or Cat 2" to judge whether or not you'll "ride it out". Intensity forecasts are almost a guess, sometimes. An educated guess, true, but we just don't have all the data and all the knowledge to correctly predict intensity even in the short term. So if you live in a coastal flood zone and ANY storm is threatening, even a "weak tropical storm", you'd better be prepared for something much worse.

Oh, here's Bones:

Adios Humberto. It is hard to predict strengthening hurricane. The error I read is off by 20 kts (23 mph).

[CrazyC83]

interesting that we are 3 for 3 of streignthing hurricanes before landfall

Yeah, I noticed that too. 2005 didn't have that. Sure, there were four Category 5 hurricanes, but none of them made landfall as a Category 5. Having two Category 5 hurricane doesn't happen often either. Usually, it's about once every 12 years or something like that.

Of the 2005 hurricanes, the only ones to make landfall at their peak intensity were Cindy and Stan.

[Ptarmigan]

Of the 2005 hurricanes, the only ones to make landfall at their peak intensity were Cindy and Stan.

Cindy was initially a tropical storm, but re-analysis had it as a hurricane. It went over New Orleans. Stan caused flooding and thousands of death in Mexico and Central America.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is JB's latest take on whether the "ghost of Humberto" will make a return to the GOM:

In any case, the question to me is will a ghost come back, and I think tomorrow at this time I will have the answer, although I am out on a limb thinking that is the likely scenario now.

He thinks it is currently the likely scenario. Will he be right? We shall see..


BTW: JB also said that he believes the GOM and East Coast will be open for possible future threats over the next 20 days as a ridge develops back over the eastern U.S. next week.

[canetracker]

Here is JB's latest take on whether the "ghost of Humberto" will make a return to the GOM:

In any case, the question to me is will a ghost come back, and I think tomorrow at this time I will have the answer, although I am out on a limb thinking that is the likely scenario now.

He thinks it is currently the likely scenario. Will he be right? We shall see..


BTW: JB also said that he believes the GOM and East Coast will be open for possible future threats over the next 20 days as a ridge develops back over the eastern U.S. next week.

Regarding Humberto's come back, I agree with Derek. IMO, Humberto will get absorbed by the front. However, I do agree with JB about the future threats. Unfortunately this season is turning out to be an active one and as luck would have it their is bound to be another US threat.

Come on Fall.... I am ready for some freezing weather.

[jasons2k]

Looking at the water vapor loops, I'd be very surprised if there was an entity leftover to go into the GOM......

[Steve]

>>Stan caused flooding and thousands of death in Mexico and Central America.

Stan is a haze to me.

>>Regarding Humberto's come back, I agree with Derek. IMO, Humberto will get absorbed by the front.

I don't have a call on it. I've been talking about that since early yesterday just based on what appeared to be some key model differences. This afternoon you could see the separation on visible and on radar. Some necessary steps in order for a piece to come back into the Gulf have occurred. Whether it does or doesn't happen remains to be seen. Best any of the globals showed was a rainy area on the pricip loops and maybe a ripple on the surface pressure loops.

Something to watch daytime tomorrow.

Steve

[attallaman]

I was checking my local weather radar on Accuweather and decided to play their daily video clip and the MET in the clip said the remnants of Humberto was provided much needed rain to parts of the SE that really needed it but if the remnants of Humberto don't continue on towards the E there's a chance that the system could head S and enter the GOM again and we'll just have to keep an eye on it. Is there a chance that could happen or is Humberto considered to be history?

[HURAKAN]

Is there a chance that could happen or is Humberto considered to be history?

Some computer models were hinting to this possibility. Nonetheless, so far all or most of the energy associated with Humberto has moved NE.

Furthermore, even if something were to develop, for it to be called "Humberto" would have to be the original area of low pressure. If there is a piece of the system that separates and becomes a named system, since it woudl have a new LLC, then it will have a new name. That was the whole story behind Ivan and Ivan II.

[attallaman]

Well I decided to check that video clip out on on Accuweather again; it's been updated; a different MET appears in the new clip who made no mention of Humberto's remnants possibly heading S and making an attempt to re-enter the GOM. Sorry about my previous post listed above but the other Accuweather MET did mention it.

[Category 5]

It's remnents are coming my way now. We need the rain too.

[attallaman]

Is there a chance that could happen or is Humberto considered to be history?

Some computer models were hinting to this possibility. Nonetheless, so far all or most of the energy associated with Humberto has moved NE.

Furthermore, even if something were to develop, for it to be called "Humberto" would have to be the original area of low pressure. If there is a piece of the system that separates and becomes a named system, since it woudl have a new LLC, then it will have a new name. That was the whole story behind Ivan and Ivan II.

Well if that's the case and TS Ingrid looking more and more like a fish storm according to some of the latest computer models I've looked at would I be correct in saying that the tropics in the Atlantic basin region are pretty quiet for now? There's nothing else forming anywhere in the Atlantic or Caribbean(sp?) regions is there? Thanks for the post.

[Brent]

I don't see Humberto redeveloping. You can just look at the satellite and tell(the remnant circulation is in NW GA now and not moving towards the Gulf).

We wound up with 3.79" of VERY beneficial rain here! It was awesome.

[HURAKAN]

To convince yourself look at a loop of WV of the Atlantic. You will see a lot of dry air and at least two main ULL affecting the tropical regions. The TUTT is even affecting the GOM and the Caribbean Sea where westerlies rule instead of the more common easterlies. If you look at a SAL (Saharan Air Layer) map, available in CIMMS, you will see a burst of dust from the Saharan Desert behind the wave that left Africa after the wave that became Ingrid. To end, development shouldn't be expected in the next few days to a week across the Atlantic.

Remember that tropical cyclones usually form in bunches, not in a single fashion.

[attallaman]

To convince yourself look at a loop of WV of the Atlantic. You will see a lot of dry air and at least two main ULL affecting the tropical regions. The TUTT is even affecting the GOM and the Caribbean Sea where westerlies rule instead of the more common easterlies. If you look at a SAL (Saharan Air Layer) map, available in CIMMS, you will see a burst of dust from the Saharan Desert behind the wave that left Africa after the wave that became Ingrid. To end, development shouldn't be expected in the next few days to a week across the Atlantic.

Remember that tropical cyclones usually form in bunches, not in a single fashion.

When you mention terms such as WV, TUTT, SAL, etc. I have to go to your acronyms file to see what those terms mean. I have an interest in tropical weather but I'm not a MET and I'll have to say after having read many of your posts you certainly seem to know what you're talking about so I'll take your word for it. Thanks again for the post.

[Coredesat]

Since the HPC has issued its last advisory, I'll lock this now.