Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[cycloneye]

Is back!!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Post 90L thread link.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97857&start=0

[TexWx]

appears to have a circular motion offshore

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... R&loop=yes

[Nimbus]

I thought the trough might eat it but it looks like it might linger off the coast long enough to spin up.

[destruction92]

this is not going to do anymore than bring some rain and a little wind to Texas..upper level winds and shear conditions are not conducive for rapid intensification, especially with a cold front in the vicinity...at most a tropical storm...and that is pushing it.

[jasons2k]

this is not going to do anymore than bring some rain and a little wind to Texas..upper level winds and shear conditions are not conducive for rapid intensification, especially with a cold front in the vicinity...at most a tropical storm...and that is pushing it.

What shear?

[Stratosphere747]

this is not going to do anymore than bring some rain and a little wind to Texas..upper level winds and shear conditions are not conducive for rapid intensification, especially with a cold front in the vicinity...at most a tropical storm...and that is pushing it.

Our concern is not the wind but the potential flooding situation that may be setting up. So a "little" wind is not the biggest threat...

[Stratosphere747]

18z GFS has backed off the closed low somewhat, but lingers 90L with plenty of moisture for the Mid/Upper Texas coast and into Louisiana for the next five days.

[srainhoutx]

this is not going to do anymore than bring some rain and a little wind to Texas..upper level winds and shear conditions are not conducive for rapid intensification, especially with a cold front in the vicinity...at most a tropical storm...and that is pushing it.

Our concern is not the wind but the potential flooding situation that may be setting up. So a "little" wind is not the biggest threat...

Agrees. As wxman57 posted on page 9 of 90L locked thread, 5-10 inches of rain or more in isolated spots. That is a lot of heavy rain for an area already extremely wet this summer.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I doubt winds ever reached tropical storm force in my neighborhood during Allison, but I saved my carpets by stuffing towels under all the doors. The mud line was about half an inch above the bottom of my door in the FM 1960/I-45 area


A TS w/ 50 mph winds is no worse than a strong t-storm, wind wise.

But slow storm motion and inch plus per hour rain rates, that can kill people and destroy property.


Oh, BTW, when Allison was doing its worst in my part of town, TPC had already handed it off to HPC...

[Ed Mahmoud]

On the one hand, while the vis looks as good as it did all day, the cloud tops have really warmed.

[HURAKAN]

Station 42002
25.17 N 94.42 W (25°10'00" N 94°25'00" W)
4:50 pm SW ( 234 deg ) 8.4 kts
4:40 pm SW ( 231 deg ) 9.3 kts
4:30 pm SW ( 229 deg ) 9.9 kts
4:20 pm SW ( 227 deg ) 9.5 kts
4:10 pm SW ( 223 deg ) 9.3 kts
4:00 pm SW ( 229 deg ) 9.1 kts

Station 42020
26.96 N 96.7 W (26°57'59" N 96°41'42" W)
4:50 pm NNE ( 16 deg ) 14.0 kts
4:40 pm N ( 3 deg ) 12.4 kts
4:30 pm N ( 357 deg ) 14.0 kts
4:20 pm N ( 358 deg ) 16.1 kts
4:10 pm NNE ( 12 deg ) 18.1 kts
4:00 pm N ( 10 deg ) 18.3 kts

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/WestGulf.shtml

[TexWx]

Looks like it's trying to wrap directly south of the TX/LA border

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

[jasons2k]

Here a nice little tidbit from Victoria, TX:

...THE VICTORIA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR SEPTEMBER 11 2007...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

PRECIPITATION (IN)
SINCE JAN 1 64.38
NORMAL VALUE 27.44
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL +36.94

[Ed Mahmoud]

I will say this, I've seen NHC issue updated tasking in the afternoon for aircraft recon, and the fact they aren't doing it for this suggests the people that know best don't think this will ever be more than a low end TC.


IMHO.

[cycloneye]

Sorry to go off-topic. I had asked a question, and for whatever reason it was deleted.

In this case why not just move and rename the threads with an invest such as this. Sure would be much easier to keep track of the previous discussions that were going on.

The link to the post 90L thread is at the first post.

[Extremeweatherguy]

On the one hand, while the vis looks as good as it did all day, the cloud tops have really warmed.

Good point. However, I think we are in diurnal minimum right now..so warmer cloud tops are normal. I would expect a cooling in cloud tops again overnight once we are back closer to the diurnal maximum.

[Stratosphere747]

It's getting much easier to pick out a circulation at 27/94.

[jaxfladude]

This system if it gets to a TS had better drop it's rain and move on out.
Texas in still to wet for more rain...

[rockyman]

Looks like the cold front is approaching the Texas coast...I can't see this system moving ashore in Texas...possibly Louisiana

Click here, then select "NWS Fronts":
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

Low level steeting map
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm1.GIF

[jasons2k]

Looks like the cold front is approaching the Texas coast...I can't see this system moving ashore in Texas...possibly Louisiana

Front lifts out/washes out tomorrow. Steering flow is nill and if anything, increases from S-N as the next front approaches this weekend.