Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[DESTRUCTION5]

IMO one of the most dangerous types of Hurricanes is the ones that strengthen into Category 1's before landfall when they weren't forecasted to. People get caught off guard.

Claudette and Humberto are perfect examples.

Katrina Was a Prime Example when she shocked Ft Lauderdalians..

[MONTEGUT_LA]

IMO one of the most dangerous types of Hurricanes is the ones that strengthen into Category 1's before landfall when they weren't forecasted to. People get caught off guard.

Claudette and Humberto are perfect examples.

Hurricane Cindy---> Went to work- on the way home, mailboxes and street signs were flying around and I hard time staying on the road. Got home and in house just in time for hard rain and wind. My kids were glued to their chairs. We thought the widows were going to break. Weatherman said some light rain and wind, but nothing to worry about!

[CrazyC83]

IMO one of the most dangerous types of Hurricanes is the ones that strengthen into Category 1's before landfall when they weren't forecasted to. People get caught off guard.

Claudette and Humberto are perfect examples.

Katrina Was a Prime Example when she shocked Ft Lauderdalians..

They shouldn't have been too surprised with Katrina; the forecast all along was for a hurricane there.

[DESTRUCTION5]

IMO one of the most dangerous types of Hurricanes is the ones that strengthen into Category 1's before landfall when they weren't forecasted to. People get caught off guard.

Claudette and Humberto are perfect examples.

Katrina Was a Prime Example when she shocked Ft Lauderdalians..

They shouldn't have been too surprised with Katrina; the forecast all along was for a hurricane there.

People died..Big difference between 70-75MPH and the 95MPH she really had in that SE Quad..

[Steve]

>>The most dangerous part about it is that people don't evacuate when they're told it's going to only be a Tropical Storm.

Right. And you've got a lot of mobile homes and mobile home parks in the GT area of Texas and that part of SW LA. Teal Season is set to open this weekend, so probably a lot of people were working on their camps and then you also have many people still trying to finish their homes from Rita that are still living in FEMA trailers which are even more apt to pay than even mobile homes.

Tough job and not one I'd wanna have.

Steve

[KWT]

I think most people went to bed last night expecting a 60mph tropical storm and instead got an 80-90mph hurricane knocking at their doorsteps instead. Thats a big difference for those in mobile homes and gusts upto 80-85mph can cause some pretty major problems.

[Derek Ortt]

Katrina didnt have anything close to 95 mph in South Florida

The ONLY hurricane force winds recorded were on top of my office... and those were right at the threshold of hurricane. S Fla experienced a moderate to strong TS from Katrina, as most in Texas likely did

OF COURSE COASTAL AREAS OF HIGH ISLAND AND PORT ARTHUR RECEIVED A CAT 1 HURRICANE. I put this in bold as I know there will be a few who will accuse me of trying to downplay this storm

[DESTRUCTION5]

Katrina didnt have anything close to 95 mph in South Florida

The ONLY hurricane force winds recorded were on top of my office... and those were right at the threshold of hurricane. S Fla experienced a moderate to strong TS from Katrina, as most in Texas likely did

OF COURSE COASTAL AREAS OF HIGH ISLAND AND PORT ARTHUR RECEIVED A CAT 1 HURRICANE. I put this in bold as I know there will be a few who will accuse me of trying to downplay this storm

Correct me if im wrong Ortt..Was the official landfall not bumped to 85Kt in post season report? Cat 2?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

That 98 knot reading was a 10 second peak flight level wind. The 30 second sustained wind in that observation was only 93 knots. The next observation right after that had 30 second sustained winds of 94 knots, so over that 1 minute interval you saw sustained flight level winds averaged to be about 93.5 knots.

I'll first note that in a mission yesterday, I saw SFMR winds of 100 mph while the plane was on the runway that were not noted as suspect. I'll just throw that out there too. You can see that here:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/a ... 01-1015.3-

Here is the decoded observation from where that 83 knot SFMR reading occurred.
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/a ... 730-17--73

Regarding that SFMR wind, remember it is a 10 second peak wind. The 30 second sustained surface winds that can be calculated using a method I have discussed previously would mean the winds were 73.8 knots (~ 84.8 mph). If you look at the decoded observation at the link above, you will see the very next observation indicated that the 30 second surface wind could be estimated at 74.0 knots (~ 85.1 mph). Avergaing the two together, which would represent a 1 minute interval from observations taken directly next to each other, indicate the advisory intensity of 75 knots (around 85 mph), 1 minute sustained, is correct.

The very next observation is where the 102 knot suspect SFMR reading occurred. It was noted as suspect. I have no idea how anyone can determine if the two SFMR readings before that should be suspected or not.

But anyways, the advisory intensity, assuming they sampled the highest winds, would seem correct based on HDOB data. I'm not sure about what any dropsonde data said.

[PhillyWX]

Katrina didnt have anything close to 95 mph in South Florida

The ONLY hurricane force winds recorded were on top of my office... and those were right at the threshold of hurricane. S Fla experienced a moderate to strong TS from Katrina, as most in Texas likely did

OF COURSE COASTAL AREAS OF HIGH ISLAND AND PORT ARTHUR RECEIVED A CAT 1 HURRICANE. I put this in bold as I know there will be a few who will accuse me of trying to downplay this storm

Correct me if im wrong Ortt..Was the official landfall not bumped to 85Kt in post season report? Cat 2?

It was 85 mph at landfall, 75 kt per the NHC discussions and advisories unless there's been something else I have not read yet.

[southerngale]

One of the local stations was reporting that FEMA trailers had flipped over. They were talking about rescuing a woman from one of them... fortunately, no serious injuries. Can you imagine? Still in a FEMA trailer from Rita (12 days shy of 2 years ago) and Humberto storms in and flips your home around.

I had very heavy rain and a lot of wind, but I didn't get the worst part and fared ok. It was a little scary for a while there though. After lights blinking on and off, they finally went off early this morning. I was one of the lucky ones ... mine usually stay off longer when they go out during thunderstorms, but they didn't stay off long. There are over 100,000 without power and Entergy expects it to take days to restore power.

I haven't been able to drive around yet, but I've heard there's quite a bit of damage.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Perhaps he was talking about the Best Track database?

It might be that the best track database originally had 70 knots. It does currently have the 75 knots:

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal092007.dat

I wasn't around last night, so I don't know what was originally posted.

[Puddinhead]

One of the local stations was reporting that FEMA trailers had flipped over. They were talking about rescuing a woman from one of them... fortunately, no serious injuries. Can you imagine? Still in a FEMA trailer from Rita (12 days shy of 2 years ago) and Humberto storms in and flips your home around.

Ummmmmm......I'm still in a FEMA trailer from Katrina....

[Diva]

Whew...what a ride that one was! Power went out in Orange around 5:00, right after I made the coffee....thanks Humberto for waiting!
Power still out at home. At family's home in Nederland now who have power. LOTS of power lines and tree limbs down between Orange and Nederland though.
Glad you and yours are safe southerngale...and all the rest of you S2K'ers!

[southerngale]

One of the local stations was reporting that FEMA trailers had flipped over. They were talking about rescuing a woman from one of them... fortunately, no serious injuries. Can you imagine? Still in a FEMA trailer from Rita (12 days shy of 2 years ago) and Humberto storms in and flips your home around.

Ummmmmm......I'm still in a FEMA trailer from Katrina....

Sorry to hear it. Not sure what that has to do with people over here getting flipped around by Humberto while still in them from Rita though.




Edit: Glad to see you're ok too, Diva!

[Derek Ortt]

70KT was Katrina in Miami

I could see Humberto bumped up to 80KT in BT, possibly 85KT cat 2

[jjr5]

Maybe this sounds snippy, I don't mean it too, but, Katrina was 2 years ago. Humberto was today. Let's not keep bringing up Katrina please.

Souterngale and Diva...I made it out ok too. I even made it into work. Man, what a way to spend the nite huh? I am lucky, I have power...and now a ton of friends crashing at my place! Glad it is over! Don't want to see it do a loop d loo and hit Texas again.

[KWT]

Yep Derek, I think the data from recon would support a max strength of 80kts though they may decide to keep it just under cat-2 status. That should be the peak of the system unless it does something rather freaky.

[sunny]

Maybe this sounds snippy, I don't mean it too, but, Katrina was 2 years ago. Humberto was today. Let's not keep bringing up Katrina please.

As was Rita..............

Souterngale and Diva...I made it out ok too. I even made it into work. Man, what a way to spend the nite huh? I am lucky, I have power...and now a ton of friends crashing at my place! Glad it is over! Don't want to see it do a loop d loo and hit Texas again.

Glad you made out okay though

[skysummit]

Mesoscale Disco for possible increasing severe threat in Central Louisiana....





MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1965
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN/CNTRL LA INTO SW MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131856Z - 132100Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING
SEVERE THREAT.

REMNANT LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF HUMBERTO IS NOW EAST
NORTHEAST OF FORT POLK...AND EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS ALEXANDRIA AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...BEFORE CONTINUING TOWARD AREAS
NEAR/NORTHWEST OF NATCHEZ MS BY 14/00Z. SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED
SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING. BUT...LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS/SHEAR STILL APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE A RISK FOR TORNADOES
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS IS WHERE CLEARING ASSOCIATED WITH A
DRY SLOT IS ALLOWING INCREASING HEATING OF A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH LOWER/MID 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS. NEW CONVECTION ALREADY
APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF STRENGTHENING/DEEPENING IN AN ARCING
BAND FROM LAFAYETTE INTO THE VICINITY OF ALEXANDRIA. AND...ISOLATED
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT COULD ACCOMPANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS
ACTIVITY SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 09/13/2007


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...