Tropical Depression INGRID: ADVISORIES - Last Advisory

[Chacor]

137
WTNT23 KNHC 121436
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1500 UTC WED SEP 12 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 44.6W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 44.6W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 44.2W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 13.6N 45.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.0N 47.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.3N 48.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.6N 49.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.1N 51.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 54.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 17.0N 57.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 44.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Chacor]

748
WTNT33 KNHC 121438
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1130
MILES...1815 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...13.2 N...44.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Chacor]

817
WTNT43 KNHC 121440
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS ACQUIRED
ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE
EIGHTH OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON. THE CENTER OF THE ELONGATED
CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO SOME EASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK T NUMBERS FROM TAFB
AND SAB SUPPORT 30 KT...WHICH WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE
HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE FASTER DURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 295/10. THE
DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN A DAY
OR SO WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO DECELERATE AND MOVE
SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY.

THE CURRENT EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. THUS...CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
BEYOND 72 HOURS....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WHICH SHOULD
HALT ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 13.2N 44.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 13.6N 45.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 14.0N 47.3W 45 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 14.3N 48.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 14.6N 49.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 15.1N 51.4W 60 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 16.0N 54.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 17.0N 57.5W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[windstorm99]

the area of low pressure east of the Lesser Antilles has acquired
enough organization to be declared a tropical depression...the
eighth of the Atlantic season. The center of the elongated
circulation appears to be located just east of the thunderstorm
activity due to some easterly shear. Dvorak T numbers from TAFB
and SAB support 30 kt...which will be the initial intensity.
Microwave and visible satellite imagery suggests that the cyclone
has been moving a little faster during the past 6-12 hours and the
initial motion estimate is a highly uncertain 295/10. The
depression is currently located south of a narrow mid-level ridge
and the track guidance suggests a general west-northwestward heading
during the next few days. The ridge is forecast to weaken in a day
or so which should cause the depression to decelerate and move
slower than climatology.
The current easterly shear is forecast to weaken during the next day
or so which should allow for some strengthening. Thus...conditions
appear favorable for intensification during the next 2-3 days.
Beyond 72 hours....an upper level trough located north and west of
the cyclone is expected to induce southwesterly shear which should
halt any additional strengthening.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 12/1500z 13.2n 44.6w 30 kt
12hr VT 13/0000z 13.6n 45.9w 35 kt
24hr VT 13/1200z 14.0n 47.3w 45 kt
36hr VT 14/0000z 14.3n 48.4w 50 kt
48hr VT 14/1200z 14.6n 49.5w 55 kt
72hr VT 15/1200z 15.1n 51.4w 60 kt
96hr VT 16/1200z 16.0n 54.5w 60 kt
120hr VT 17/1200z 17.0n 57.5w 60 kt

$$
forecaster Brown

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 45.5W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 45.5W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 45.0W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 13.9N 46.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 14.3N 47.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 14.7N 48.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.1N 49.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.2N 52.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 17.5N 55.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 18.5N 58.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 45.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 PM AST WED SEP 12 2007

...DEPRESSION APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1065
MILES...1715 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...
19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...13.5 N...45.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE SINCE
THIS MORNING WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER ESTIMATED NEAR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT 35 KT. SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30
KT. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY PASSING ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH OF NOAA
BUOY 41041...WHICH HAS REPORTED A PEAK 1-MINUTE WIND OF 28 KT AND A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1008.6 MB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO DECELERATE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE
NORTHWARD THEREAFTER...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF
HWRF...GFDL...UMKET...AND GFS MODELS.

MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEPRESSION SHOULD GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN. THE GFDL...HWRF AND SHIPS MODELS BRING THE DEPRESSION
TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW THIS GUIDANCE AND KEEP THE DEPRESSION
JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF THE MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE INCREASING SHEAR. THE GFDL RESPONDS TO THIS
BY WEAKENING THE CYCLONE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REFLECT SOME
WEAKENING LATE IN THE PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 13.5N 45.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 13.9N 46.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 14.3N 47.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 14.7N 48.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 15.1N 49.8W 55 KT
72HR VT 15/1800Z 16.2N 52.2W 60 KT
96HR VT 16/1800Z 17.5N 55.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 17/1800Z 18.5N 58.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
0300 UTC THU SEP 13 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 46.4W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 46.4W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 46.1W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 13.9N 47.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.3N 48.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.6N 49.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.0N 50.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.0N 53.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 17.0N 56.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 18.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 46.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM AST WED SEP 12 2007

...DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1005
MILES...1620 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...13.4 N...46.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT APPRECIABLY CHANGED IN ITS CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION OR ESTIMATED INTENSITY SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
DVORAK...ADT...AND AMSU ESTIMATES ARE AT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY...SSMI AND SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS INSTEAD THAT
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS OFFSET ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
CONVECTION. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOTION VECTORS SHOW THAT THERE
REMAINS SOME MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT CONTINUES TO IMPACT
THE SYSTEM. SINCE THE ESTIMATED CENTER IS NOT WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE CONVECTION...THIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.

TD EIGHT IS SOUTH OF A WEAK DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY
PROVIDING A STEERING OF ABOUT 280/10...SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD THAN
INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE SLOWING BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF AN MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY
NORTH OF 25N AT THE SAME LONGITUDE OF THE DEPRESSION. THE TROUGH
SHOULD CUTOFF AND RETROGRADE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS HAS THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF WEAKENING THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING AS
WELL AS INDUCING RATHER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AT THE LONGER
TIME PERIODS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS THE CONSENSUS OF THE
GFS...UKMET...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS AND IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE
DISCOUNTED AS THEY UNREALISTICALLY TAKE THE DEPRESSION NORTHWARD
ALMOST IMMEDIATELY.

THOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM 28C WATERS...NONE OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE TAKES TD EIGHT TO A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO RATHER DRY AIR
JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM IN THE EARLY TIME PERIODS
AND THE RATHER SHARP INCREASE IN SHEAR AT THE LATER TIME PERIODS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGE MODELS THROUGH
THREE DAYS AND A BLEND OF THESE TWO WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS
AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 13.4N 46.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 13.9N 47.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 14.3N 48.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 14/1200Z 14.6N 49.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 15/0000Z 15.0N 50.6W 50 KT
72HR VT 16/0000Z 16.0N 53.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 17/0000Z 17.0N 56.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 18/0000Z 18.0N 59.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH

[Coredesat]

WTNT23 KNHC 130842
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
0900 UTC THU SEP 13 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 47.5W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 47.5W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 47.1W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 14.5N 48.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 14.8N 49.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.0N 50.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.5N 51.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.5N 54.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 17.5N 57.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 19.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 47.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Coredesat]

WTNT43 KNHC 130844
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF A LARGE CIRCULAR
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS. THE
DEPRESSION STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER...ALL GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER THAN NORMAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THIS PATTERN IS LIKELY TO INHIBIT THE DEPRESSION FROM
STRENGTHENING SIGNIFICANTLY. WEAKENING IS INDICATED BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE AREA WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHERE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
LARGE.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT
9 KNOTS AROUND A WEAK MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. SINCE STEERING
CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN...THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL SLOW
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS. TRACK GUI DACE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BRINGING THE CYCLONE ON A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AND
WEAKENING. THE UK AND ECMWF MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE A LITTLE BIT
LONGER BUT THIS IS NOT REALISTIC GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED HIGHLY
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 13.9N 47.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 14.5N 48.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 14.8N 49.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 14/1800Z 15.0N 50.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 15/0600Z 15.5N 51.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 16/0600Z 16.5N 54.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 17/0600Z 17.5N 57.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 18/0600Z 19.0N 60.0W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

590
WTNT23 KNHC 131432
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1500 UTC THU SEP 13 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 48.0W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 45SE 45SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 48.0W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 47.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.2N 49.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.5N 49.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.8N 50.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.2N 52.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 54.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 17.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 18.2N 59.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 48.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

848
WTNT33 KNHC 131433
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 AM AST THU SEP 13 2007

...DISORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT CONTINUING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.0 WEST OR ABOUT 895
MILES...1440 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR. A CONTINUED GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVELS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THE DEPRESSION STILL HAS THE CHANCE TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...13.9 N...48.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

250
WTNT43 KNHC 131433
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007

A 0900Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS RECEIVED AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
SUGGESTED THAT SYSTEM COULD HAVE BEEN A TROPICAL STORM FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE IMAGE DEPICTED A FEW UN-FLAGGED 35 KT WINDS JUST TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. SINCE THEN...VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES A SEVERELY SHEARED...POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT.

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
STORM. AFTERWARD...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...LARGE SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST STRONG
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER
MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
SUIT AND IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT PASS AND AN EARLIER SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE...THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...REFLECTING AN INITIAL ESTIMATED MOTION
OF 285/7. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST...WITH A CONTINUED SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD MOTION
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY
A REFLECTION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT JUST TO THE LEFT...FOLLOWING
A BLEND OF THE UKMET...GFDL...AND THE GFS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 13.9N 48.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 14.2N 49.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 14.5N 49.9W 35 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 14.8N 50.8W 35 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 15.2N 52.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 16.0N 54.4W 40 KT
96HR VT 17/1200Z 17.0N 57.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 18/1200Z 18.2N 59.6W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
2100 UTC THU SEP 13 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 48.4W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 48.4W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 48.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 14.5N 49.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.0N 50.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.5N 51.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.9N 52.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.0N 55.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 18.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 19.1N 60.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 48.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 PM AST THU SEP 13 2007

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION SLOWLY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.4 WEST OR ABOUT 865
MILES...1395 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...10
KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING...THE DEPRESSION STILL HAS THE CHANCE TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS EVENING.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.2 N...48.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2007

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALLER WEAKER LOW
ROTATING ABOUT A MORE DOMINANT...BROAD...CIRCULATION TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION WILL BE BASED ON A CENTROID
POSITION OF THE TWO CIRCULATION CENTERS. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO
THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THIS MORNING...AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AS 30 KT.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITY REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...SUGGESTING A POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING TO A
TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE INTENSITY
MODELS INDICATE VERY LITTLE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE 72 HOUR
PERIOD...WITH A WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/5...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY CONTINUE ON A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN WEAK STEERING FLOW OF A
MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT THAN THIS MORNING...WITH
THE 12Z ECMWF NOW SUGGESTING A MOTION SIMILAR TO THE OTHER MODELS.
THE NOGAPS...HOWEVER...SHOWS THE MOST VERTICAL DEPTH WHICH APPEARS
TO BE INFLUENCING A DRAMATIC TURN TO THE RIGHT TOWARD A
RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE RIGHT...AND AGREES WITH
A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE NOGAPS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 14.2N 48.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 14.5N 49.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 15.0N 50.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 15.5N 51.4W 35 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 15.9N 52.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 17.0N 55.4W 40 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 18.0N 58.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 18/1800Z 19.1N 60.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM INGRID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
0300 UTC FRI SEP 14 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 48.7W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 48.7W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 48.5W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.1N 49.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.6N 50.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.2N 51.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.7N 52.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.8N 56.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 19.0N 58.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 20.5N 60.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 48.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM AST THU SEP 13 2007

...THE NINTH STORM OF THE YEAR FORMS TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST OR ABOUT 840
MILES...1355 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A SMALL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.7 N...48.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2007

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE HAS BEEN ON A RESEARCH MISSION THIS
EVENING AND FOUND 35 KT WINDS USING THE ON-BOARD STEPPED-FREQUENCY
MICROWAVE RADIOMETER (SFMR). THESE WINDS MATCH UP FAIRLY WELL TO A
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS THAT SUGGESTED WINDS OF ABOUT 35 KT AND
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 35 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 35 KT...MAKING THIS SYSTEM THE NINTH NAMED
STORM OF THE YEAR.

MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT INGRID.
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS KEEP THE SHEAR ABOUT THE SAME FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN
STRENGTH. THEREAFTER...WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INTENSIFY...LIKELY
CAUSING A WEAKENING OF INGRID. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE
SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND COULD BE A
LITTLE TOO HIGH IN THE LONGER RANGE AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING
NEARLY 30 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR IN THE STORM'S PATH.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT TONIGHT...
ESTIMATED AT 300/5. THE TRACK FORECAST IS TRICKY AS IT PROBABLY
HAS A STRONG DEPENDENCE ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF INGRID. WATER
VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGGING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW HAS CAUSED A
VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING
REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. A STRONGER
TROPICAL CYCLONE WOULD PROBABLY BE MORE RESPONSIVE TO THE
LOW...AND MOVE FARTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT
IS ASSUMED THAT INGRID WILL REMAIN WEAK AND STAY ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR NOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 14.7N 48.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 15.1N 49.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 15.6N 50.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 16.2N 51.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 16.7N 52.9W 35 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 17.8N 56.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 19.0N 58.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 20.5N 60.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM INGRID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1500 UTC FRI SEP 14 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 50.0W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 50.0W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 49.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.5N 50.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.5N 52.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.5N 53.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.5N 55.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.0N 57.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 21.5N 59.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 23.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 50.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z


141434
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

FIXES FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHICH IS CURRENTLY ON A
RESEARCH MISSION INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF INGRID IS CLOSER TO
CONVECTION. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. BASED ON THE
AVERAGE OF FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR DATA FROM THE PLANE...AND
DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 40 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...THIS INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST SINCE INGRID IS
HEADING TOWARD A STRONGER THAN NORMAL SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS ARE
ALREADY OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ARE IMPINGING ON THE
CYCLONE...OR AS IT HAS BEEN SAID FOR YEARS IN THE SATELLITE
JARGON...A DAGGER THROUGH THE HEART. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT INGRID WILL NOT LAST
THROUGH FIVE DAYS. IN FACT...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS ALREADY BEGUN
TO DETERIORATE SINCE THIS MORNING'S CLASSIFICATIONS.

INGRID IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND HAS BEEN MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. THESE CURRENTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK AS A MID-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF INGRID. THIS LOW WILL PROBABLY FORCE THE CYCLONE OR
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHICH IS BOUNDED
BY THE NOGAPS TO THE NORTH AND BY THE UK TO THE SOUTH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 15.2N 50.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 15.5N 50.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 16.5N 52.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 17.5N 53.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 18.5N 55.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 57.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 21.5N 59.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 19/1200Z 23.0N 61.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[P.K.]

FKNT23 KNHC 142026
TCANT3
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
2100 UTC FRI SEP 14 2007

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20070914/2100Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: INGRID
NR: 010
PSN: N1536 W05036
MOV: NW 07KT
C: 1004HPA
MAX WIND: 035KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 150000 N1548 W05103
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 150600 N1600 W05130
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 151200 N1630 W05209
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 151800 N1700 W05248
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 030KT
NXT MSG: 20070915/0300Z