Tropical storm Humberto
Forecast 1#
9-12-2007
2:30pm pst/5:30pm est
...Humberto strengthing at a fast quick rate just off texas...
...This morning the MLC/surface trough got better organized, and formed a LLC over the western Gulf of Mexico. This LLC has quickly developed through out today, and has in fact formed a banding eyewall at the time of this forecast. If this has time to develop with the upper level shear low and the warm tchp, this could become a very powerful storm. But the chances it will remine off shore for another 24 hours, are not to high based on the fact that the system is slowly moving northward at around 3-5 mph. Recon has found 999 millibars with Humberto as of the last run through the core of the system. With surface winds showing about 45 knots. Based on the data we expect humberto to strengthen to 60 knots or just below hurricane strengthen by 12 hours. The center is at 28.6 north/95.1 west...Over the last hour the core of the storm seems to have slowed down.
The frontal system just onshore texas, has allowed 90L to sit just offshore. But a trough will be moving to the systems north after 24 hours...So if its still offshore at that time it should be inshore by 24-30 hours. A northly movement should be expected over the next 24 hours. We are forecasting a northward track. One thing to note is if the system is still offshore after 24 hours, the trough could kick it more north-northeastward. So we have to watch it. The hurricane models are split between a northward and a more northeastward track. So its worth watching.
As for strengthen. We expect humberto to miss hurricane strength by a hair. But it could still become one. And with more time that increases, but as the trough moves to its north, shear is likely to increase.
0 28.6/95.1 45 knots
6 28.8/95.2 55 knots
12 29.0/95.1 60 knots
24 29.5/94.8 50 knots over land
36 over land
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Hurricane HUMBERTO: Personal Forecasts
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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S2K Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
My Disclaimer: These products are unofficial and are not certified by any Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre, Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre, or any official forecasting agency and may be subject to large errors. Refer to their products for official updates.
Forecast #1 - 2100 UTC 12 September 2007
...Tropical Storm Humberto off the coast of Texas...
Estimated Position: 28.6°N 94.8°W
Est. Maximum Sustained Winds: 45 knots
Est. Minimum Pressure: 999 hPa
Movement: NNE at 5 knots
DISCUSSION
Position at 2045, confidence is fair based on GOES-FLOATER1 VIS/IR2, BD-IR.
A tropical disturbance off the southeastern coast of Texas has quickly intensified into a tropical storm, and appears to be intensifying fairly quickly. Tropical Storm Humberto (09L) has been drifting to the north-northeast over the past 12 hours, and recon observations indicate the system is developing a banding eye. The system has good (but ragged due to land interaction) outflow and is quickly consolidating its core convection. Shear over the system is light. Latest Dvorak T was T3.0 (SAB), T2.0 (TAFB). Given recon findings, the intensity is estimated to be 45 kt.
Humberto should make landfall in the next 12-24 hours on its current track. Some continued intensification is expected, though Humberto should remain a tropical storm before landfall. The forecast track is based on the model consensus but ignores those models that recurve the system back into the Gulf of Mexico after 72 hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
Init...28.6°N 94.8°W...45 kt
12 hr...29.4°N 94.6°W...55 kt...inland
24 hr...30.3°N 94.3°W...30 kt...inland
36 hr...31.5°N 93.7°W...25 kt...inland dissipating
48 hr...32.7°N 92.7°W...dissipated as a tropical cyclone over land
My Disclaimer: These products are unofficial and are not certified by any Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre, Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre, or any official forecasting agency and may be subject to large errors. Refer to their products for official updates.
Forecast #1 - 2100 UTC 12 September 2007
...Tropical Storm Humberto off the coast of Texas...
Estimated Position: 28.6°N 94.8°W
Est. Maximum Sustained Winds: 45 knots
Est. Minimum Pressure: 999 hPa
Movement: NNE at 5 knots
DISCUSSION
Position at 2045, confidence is fair based on GOES-FLOATER1 VIS/IR2, BD-IR.
A tropical disturbance off the southeastern coast of Texas has quickly intensified into a tropical storm, and appears to be intensifying fairly quickly. Tropical Storm Humberto (09L) has been drifting to the north-northeast over the past 12 hours, and recon observations indicate the system is developing a banding eye. The system has good (but ragged due to land interaction) outflow and is quickly consolidating its core convection. Shear over the system is light. Latest Dvorak T was T3.0 (SAB), T2.0 (TAFB). Given recon findings, the intensity is estimated to be 45 kt.
Humberto should make landfall in the next 12-24 hours on its current track. Some continued intensification is expected, though Humberto should remain a tropical storm before landfall. The forecast track is based on the model consensus but ignores those models that recurve the system back into the Gulf of Mexico after 72 hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
Init...28.6°N 94.8°W...45 kt
12 hr...29.4°N 94.6°W...55 kt...inland
24 hr...30.3°N 94.3°W...30 kt...inland
36 hr...31.5°N 93.7°W...25 kt...inland dissipating
48 hr...32.7°N 92.7°W...dissipated as a tropical cyclone over land
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Re: T.S. HUMBERTO: Personal Forecasts
Tropical storm Humberto
forecast 2#
7pm pst/10pm est
9-12-2007
Humberto forming eye wall and moving northeastward...
Humberto on radar tonight is shown to be moving northeastward up the coast of texas. Recon data from earlier tonight shown that the pressure was down to 998 millibars, with 55 knot flight level winds. Also a report of 51 knot winds from surface data. The eye/innercore of the cyclone has become better organized. In should support the 50 knots we are currently putting it at. Humberto's inner core is very small only about 50-80 miles wide...The pressure grad is very tight. With that being said the factors that are going against it should not allow for this system to strengthen fast. We are forecasting still 60 knots just in case recon finds a stronger system to play it safe. There is a small hole in the convection near where the eye is; that could be a eye forming on the satellite. 28.9 north/94.6 west moving northeastward...
Humberto is east of the forecasted track, and it appears that the trough over the midwest has turned the flow out of the east down to 30 north. Upper air data at 500 millibars show eastly flow almost down to the system, with in 50 miles to the north. The subtropical ridge has been forcing the system northward around its western flank; But with the trough breaking it down, expect a turn eastward or east-northeastward by 12 hours. With this being said the favorable upper level enviroment over the western side has become unfavorable, with strong westly winds hitting the western part of the system. That is a sign that the turn more eastward is starting to occur. As the system speeds up and moves more eastward, this will become less of a factor on how storng the innercore of the cyclone can get. Once the system is inland expect a more eastward...In fact some models went to do a loop. We won't forecast one yet.
0 50 knots 28.9/94.6
6 55 knots 29.2/94.3
12 60 knots 29.5/94.0
24 45 knots 30.5/93
Next forecast for humberto is at 3am pst/6am est
A forecast on 8 will be at 2am pst/5am est
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
forecast 2#
7pm pst/10pm est
9-12-2007
Humberto forming eye wall and moving northeastward...
Humberto on radar tonight is shown to be moving northeastward up the coast of texas. Recon data from earlier tonight shown that the pressure was down to 998 millibars, with 55 knot flight level winds. Also a report of 51 knot winds from surface data. The eye/innercore of the cyclone has become better organized. In should support the 50 knots we are currently putting it at. Humberto's inner core is very small only about 50-80 miles wide...The pressure grad is very tight. With that being said the factors that are going against it should not allow for this system to strengthen fast. We are forecasting still 60 knots just in case recon finds a stronger system to play it safe. There is a small hole in the convection near where the eye is; that could be a eye forming on the satellite. 28.9 north/94.6 west moving northeastward...
Humberto is east of the forecasted track, and it appears that the trough over the midwest has turned the flow out of the east down to 30 north. Upper air data at 500 millibars show eastly flow almost down to the system, with in 50 miles to the north. The subtropical ridge has been forcing the system northward around its western flank; But with the trough breaking it down, expect a turn eastward or east-northeastward by 12 hours. With this being said the favorable upper level enviroment over the western side has become unfavorable, with strong westly winds hitting the western part of the system. That is a sign that the turn more eastward is starting to occur. As the system speeds up and moves more eastward, this will become less of a factor on how storng the innercore of the cyclone can get. Once the system is inland expect a more eastward...In fact some models went to do a loop. We won't forecast one yet.
0 50 knots 28.9/94.6
6 55 knots 29.2/94.3
12 60 knots 29.5/94.0
24 45 knots 30.5/93
Next forecast for humberto is at 3am pst/6am est
A forecast on 8 will be at 2am pst/5am est
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
FORECAST NUMBER 1...ISSUED 0340Z OR 1040 PM CDT.
...TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
OFFICIAL NWS WARNINGS...10 PM CDT.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SARGENT...TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY...LOUISIANA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SARGENT WEST TO PORT OCONNOR...TEXAS CANCELLED.
OFFICIAL NWS WARNING POSITION...0000Z OR 7 PM CDT...28.8N 94.8W.
...INTENSITY...
HUMBERTO IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. CURRENT MAX SUST WINDS...55 KT...65 MPH...
GUSTS TO 65 KT...75 MPH.
CURRENT DVORAK T-NO. ESTIMATES...SAB T3.5/3.5...CIMSS ADT CI2.3.
TS MAY BE GRADED UP TO HURRICANE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
TS MAY DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE IS IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IS WELL
ORGANISED.
TS INHIBITED BY PROXIMITY TO LAND.
...MOVEMENT...
TS MOVEMENT HAS BEEN ERRATIC.
TS SHORT TERM MOVEMENT IS 030 DEGREES AT 05 KT...NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 6 MPH.
TS LONG TERM MOVEMENT IS DEPENDENT ON MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
REMNANTS COULD STALL ALONG GULF COAST...PRODUCING MORE RAIN.
...IMPACT...
TS WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN 12 HOURS.
TS IMPACT PRIMARILY RAIN...ALTHOUGH HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. SOME
HURRICANE-FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS MAY BE FELT IF TS HUMBERTO STRENGTHENS MORE.
RAIN IMPACT...5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN...ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 15 INCHES.
TORNADO IMPACT...ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
SURGE IMPACT...3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL POSSIBLE.
REPEAT OFFICIAL INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SARGENT...TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY...LOUISIANA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SARGENT WEST TO PORT OCONNOR...TEXAS CANCELLED.
AT 10 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.6 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES... 40 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 45 MILES... 70 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS.
NEXT FORECAST AT 0940Z.
FORECAST NUMBER 1...ISSUED 0340Z OR 1040 PM CDT.
...TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
OFFICIAL NWS WARNINGS...10 PM CDT.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SARGENT...TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY...LOUISIANA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SARGENT WEST TO PORT OCONNOR...TEXAS CANCELLED.
OFFICIAL NWS WARNING POSITION...0000Z OR 7 PM CDT...28.8N 94.8W.
...INTENSITY...
HUMBERTO IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. CURRENT MAX SUST WINDS...55 KT...65 MPH...
GUSTS TO 65 KT...75 MPH.
CURRENT DVORAK T-NO. ESTIMATES...SAB T3.5/3.5...CIMSS ADT CI2.3.
TS MAY BE GRADED UP TO HURRICANE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
TS MAY DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE IS IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IS WELL
ORGANISED.
TS INHIBITED BY PROXIMITY TO LAND.
...MOVEMENT...
TS MOVEMENT HAS BEEN ERRATIC.
TS SHORT TERM MOVEMENT IS 030 DEGREES AT 05 KT...NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 6 MPH.
TS LONG TERM MOVEMENT IS DEPENDENT ON MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
REMNANTS COULD STALL ALONG GULF COAST...PRODUCING MORE RAIN.
...IMPACT...
TS WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN 12 HOURS.
TS IMPACT PRIMARILY RAIN...ALTHOUGH HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. SOME
HURRICANE-FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS MAY BE FELT IF TS HUMBERTO STRENGTHENS MORE.
RAIN IMPACT...5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN...ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 15 INCHES.
TORNADO IMPACT...ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
SURGE IMPACT...3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL POSSIBLE.
REPEAT OFFICIAL INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SARGENT...TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY...LOUISIANA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SARGENT WEST TO PORT OCONNOR...TEXAS CANCELLED.
AT 10 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.6 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES... 40 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 45 MILES... 70 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS.
NEXT FORECAST AT 0940Z.
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This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
SPECIAL FORECAST NUMBER 2...ISSUED 0545Z OR 1245 AM CDT.
...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE...
OFFICIAL NWS WARNINGS...1215 AM CDT.
HURRICANE WARNING FROM HIGH ISLAND...TEXAS TO CAMERON...LOUISIANA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SARGENT...TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND...AND FROM CAMERON
TO INTRACOASTAL CITY...LOUISIANA.
OFFICIAL NWS WARNING POSITION...0000Z OR 7 PM CDT...28.8N 94.8W.
...INTENSITY...
HUMBERTO NOW A HURRICANE. CURRENT MAX SUST WINDS...70 KT...80 MPH...
GUSTS TO 85 KT...100 MPH.
HURRICANE WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TS WITHIN 12 HOURS.
HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN DUE TO LANDFALL.
...MOVEMENT...
HURRICANE WILL CROSS TEXAS COAST IN NEXT FEW HOURS.
HURRICANE LONG TERM MOVEMENT IS DEPENDENT ON MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
REMNANTS COULD STALL ALONG GULF COAST...PRODUCING MORE RAIN.
...IMPACT...
HURRICANE WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN 12 HOURS.
HURRICANE IMPACT PRIMARILY RAIN...BUT HURRICANE-FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS...WHICH
ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA...MAY BE FELT OVER LAND.
RAIN IMPACT...5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN...ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 15 INCHES.
TORNADO IMPACT...ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
SURGE IMPACT...3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL POSSIBLE.
REPEAT OFFICIAL INFORMATION...
HURRICANE WARNING FROM HIGH ISLAND...TEXAS TO CAMERON...LOUISIANA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SARGENT...TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND...AND FROM CAMERON
TO INTRACOASTAL CITY...LOUISIANA.
AT 1215 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM...EAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS
...AND ABOUT 15 MILES...20 KM...SOUTH OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS.
NEXT FORECAST AT 1540Z.
SPECIAL FORECAST NUMBER 2...ISSUED 0545Z OR 1245 AM CDT.
...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE...
OFFICIAL NWS WARNINGS...1215 AM CDT.
HURRICANE WARNING FROM HIGH ISLAND...TEXAS TO CAMERON...LOUISIANA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SARGENT...TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND...AND FROM CAMERON
TO INTRACOASTAL CITY...LOUISIANA.
OFFICIAL NWS WARNING POSITION...0000Z OR 7 PM CDT...28.8N 94.8W.
...INTENSITY...
HUMBERTO NOW A HURRICANE. CURRENT MAX SUST WINDS...70 KT...80 MPH...
GUSTS TO 85 KT...100 MPH.
HURRICANE WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TS WITHIN 12 HOURS.
HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN DUE TO LANDFALL.
...MOVEMENT...
HURRICANE WILL CROSS TEXAS COAST IN NEXT FEW HOURS.
HURRICANE LONG TERM MOVEMENT IS DEPENDENT ON MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
REMNANTS COULD STALL ALONG GULF COAST...PRODUCING MORE RAIN.
...IMPACT...
HURRICANE WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN 12 HOURS.
HURRICANE IMPACT PRIMARILY RAIN...BUT HURRICANE-FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS...WHICH
ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA...MAY BE FELT OVER LAND.
RAIN IMPACT...5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN...ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 15 INCHES.
TORNADO IMPACT...ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
SURGE IMPACT...3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL POSSIBLE.
REPEAT OFFICIAL INFORMATION...
HURRICANE WARNING FROM HIGH ISLAND...TEXAS TO CAMERON...LOUISIANA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SARGENT...TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND...AND FROM CAMERON
TO INTRACOASTAL CITY...LOUISIANA.
AT 1215 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM...EAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS
...AND ABOUT 15 MILES...20 KM...SOUTH OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS.
NEXT FORECAST AT 1540Z.
Last edited by Chacor on Thu Sep 13, 2007 3:03 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Coredesat
S2K Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
My Disclaimer: These products are unofficial and are not certified by any Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre, Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre, or any official forecasting agency and may be subject to large errors. Refer to their products for official updates.
Forecast #2 - 0600 UTC 13 September 2007
Corrected VIS to IR4
...Humberto quickly intensifies into a hurricane...
Estimated Position: 29.5°N 94.5°W
Est. Maximum Sustained Winds: 70 knots
Est. Minimum Pressure: 990 hPa
Movement: NNE at 6 knots
DISCUSSION
Position at 0530, confidence is fair based on recon VDM, extrapolated from GOES-FLOATER1 IR4/IR2, BD-IR.
Humberto (09L) has quickly intensified through the evening, and is now a hurricane. The system has a rather odd appearance on satellite imagery, consisting of a symmetric ball of convection just east of Galveston Bay, and an outflow band extending out to the east. Radar imagery shows a well-defined eyewall surrounding a small eye, drifting slowly to the northeast. Observations from Air Force recon indicated flight-level winds of 79 kt, corresponding to a surface wind of 70 kt. Doppler radar velocity observations also support an increase in intensity, so the intensity for this forecast is bumped up to 70 kt, though recent SFMR measurements indicate that the winds may actually be higher.
The forecast track reasoning is unchanged from the previous forecast; Humberto is expected to make landfall within the next 6 hours and quickly weaken over the next 24 hours, dissipating by 48 hours or so.
No map is associated with this forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
Init...29.5°N 94.5°W...70 kt...just off SE Texas coast
12 hr...30.3°N 94.2°W...50 kt...inland
24 hr...31.6°N 93.5°W...30 kt...inland
36 hr...32.6°N 92.3°W...25 kt...dissipating as a tropical cyclone over land
48 hr...33.7°N 90.5°W...dissipated as a tropical cyclone over land
My Disclaimer: These products are unofficial and are not certified by any Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre, Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre, or any official forecasting agency and may be subject to large errors. Refer to their products for official updates.
Forecast #2 - 0600 UTC 13 September 2007
Corrected VIS to IR4
...Humberto quickly intensifies into a hurricane...
Estimated Position: 29.5°N 94.5°W
Est. Maximum Sustained Winds: 70 knots
Est. Minimum Pressure: 990 hPa
Movement: NNE at 6 knots
DISCUSSION
Position at 0530, confidence is fair based on recon VDM, extrapolated from GOES-FLOATER1 IR4/IR2, BD-IR.
Humberto (09L) has quickly intensified through the evening, and is now a hurricane. The system has a rather odd appearance on satellite imagery, consisting of a symmetric ball of convection just east of Galveston Bay, and an outflow band extending out to the east. Radar imagery shows a well-defined eyewall surrounding a small eye, drifting slowly to the northeast. Observations from Air Force recon indicated flight-level winds of 79 kt, corresponding to a surface wind of 70 kt. Doppler radar velocity observations also support an increase in intensity, so the intensity for this forecast is bumped up to 70 kt, though recent SFMR measurements indicate that the winds may actually be higher.
The forecast track reasoning is unchanged from the previous forecast; Humberto is expected to make landfall within the next 6 hours and quickly weaken over the next 24 hours, dissipating by 48 hours or so.
No map is associated with this forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
Init...29.5°N 94.5°W...70 kt...just off SE Texas coast
12 hr...30.3°N 94.2°W...50 kt...inland
24 hr...31.6°N 93.5°W...30 kt...inland
36 hr...32.6°N 92.3°W...25 kt...dissipating as a tropical cyclone over land
48 hr...33.7°N 90.5°W...dissipated as a tropical cyclone over land
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Coredesat
S2K Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
My Disclaimer: These products are unofficial and are not certified by any Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre, Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre, or any official forecasting agency and may be subject to large errors. Refer to their products for official updates.
Forecast #3 - 2100 UTC 13 September 2007
...Humberto weakens to a tropical depression over land...
Estimated Position: 31.3°N 92.8°W
Est. Maximum Sustained Winds: 30 knots
Est. Minimum Pressure: 999 hPa
Movement: ENE at 8 knots
DISCUSSION
Position at 2045, confidence is fair GOES-FLOATER1 VIS/IR2.
Humberto (09L) has weakened due to land interaction as it moves east-northeastward over Louisiana. Convection is rapidly becoming sheared to the east of the center, with a front-like convective band extending southward into the Gulf of Mexico. Visible satellite imagery indicates that the system may be decoupling, with the upper-level circulation running off to the northeast. The system is dissipating as a significant tropical cyclone, and should continue its present motion over the next 12 hours, with a turn to the southeast after that. The remnants of Humberto should dissipate completely within 36 hours or so.
No map is associated with this forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
Init...31.3°N 92.8°W...30 kt...dissipating as a tropical cyclone over land
12 hr...32.0°N 91.5°W...25 kt...dissipating as a tropical cyclone over land
24 hr...31.9°N 90.1°W...25 kt...dissipating as a tropical cyclone over land
36 hr...31.4°N 89.1°W...dissipated as a tropical cyclone over land
This is the last forecast that will be issued on Humberto. The system will be monitored for signs of regeneration.
My Disclaimer: These products are unofficial and are not certified by any Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre, Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre, or any official forecasting agency and may be subject to large errors. Refer to their products for official updates.
Forecast #3 - 2100 UTC 13 September 2007
...Humberto weakens to a tropical depression over land...
Estimated Position: 31.3°N 92.8°W
Est. Maximum Sustained Winds: 30 knots
Est. Minimum Pressure: 999 hPa
Movement: ENE at 8 knots
DISCUSSION
Position at 2045, confidence is fair GOES-FLOATER1 VIS/IR2.
Humberto (09L) has weakened due to land interaction as it moves east-northeastward over Louisiana. Convection is rapidly becoming sheared to the east of the center, with a front-like convective band extending southward into the Gulf of Mexico. Visible satellite imagery indicates that the system may be decoupling, with the upper-level circulation running off to the northeast. The system is dissipating as a significant tropical cyclone, and should continue its present motion over the next 12 hours, with a turn to the southeast after that. The remnants of Humberto should dissipate completely within 36 hours or so.
No map is associated with this forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
Init...31.3°N 92.8°W...30 kt...dissipating as a tropical cyclone over land
12 hr...32.0°N 91.5°W...25 kt...dissipating as a tropical cyclone over land
24 hr...31.9°N 90.1°W...25 kt...dissipating as a tropical cyclone over land
36 hr...31.4°N 89.1°W...dissipated as a tropical cyclone over land
This is the last forecast that will be issued on Humberto. The system will be monitored for signs of regeneration.
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