TD ex-WIPHA (WPAC) - LANDFALL

[CrazyC83]

Just added to NRL. Doesn't look all that bad even though it is pretty close to land.

[RL3AO]

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.0N 131.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 775 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 131339Z
AMSU IMAGE SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WEST AND EAST OF AN ELONGATED CENTER. A
130943Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE AND RECENT SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
STRONG CONVERGENT 20-25 KNOT WESTERLIES SOUTH OF THE LLCC WITH 10-15
KNOT EASTERLIES NORTH OF THE LLCC (AND SLP NEAR 1004MB ABOUT 120NM
NORTH). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12
TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.

FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//
NNNN

[Coredesat]

WTPN21 PGTW 142200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/142130Z SEP 07//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.1N 134.7E TO 23.3N 131.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 141800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.7N 134.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.3N
132.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 134.3E, APPROXIMATELY 580 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
AND A 141908Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS INDICATE INCREASED BANDING
ON THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WRAPPING TOWARD A CONSOLIDATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A BAND OF STRONG WESTERLIES
SOUTH OF THE DISTURBANCE IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE SPIN UP OF
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS THE LIMITING
FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT AS A TUTT CELL MAY INHIBIT CONVECTION AS
IT MIGRATES NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE TEMPORARY MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND SHEAR
AND EVIDENCE OF INCREASED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 152200Z.//

[CrazyC83]

14/2033 UTC 18.1N 132.8E T1.0/1.0 92W -- West Pacific Ocean

[Typhoon Hunter]

There's a T2.5 out there now for 92W and JMA are now issuing public warnings. Expecting 40kt TS in the next 24 hours. ECMWF take this into the east coast of China near Shanghai so naturally I'm intrigued as to what's gonna happen:

TPPN10 PGTW 150615

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE E OF LUZON

B. 15/0530Z

C. 19.8N/8

D. 132.8E/4

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS (15/0530Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC

49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .50 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS 2.5. DBO DT. PT AND MET AGREE.

ROACH


WTPQ21 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 19.9N 133.0E POOR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 160600UTC 22.6N 130.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

[Coredesat]

[P.K.]

RSMC Tokyo have started sat fixes on this TD, the 17th such instance this year, with the CI at T1.5 at 1200.

[HURAKAN]

[P.K.]

Down 2hPa to 996hPa.

FKPQ31 RJTD 151800
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20070915/1800Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: TD
NR: 3
PSN: N1955 E13140
MOV: W 07KT
C: 996HPA
MAX WIND: 30KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 16/0600Z N2035 E13020
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +18HR: NIL
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: NIL
FCST PSN +24HR: 16/1800Z N2155 E12855
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 40KT
NXT MSG: 20070916/0000Z =

[fasterdisaster]

Looks good for a TD, even in the WPAC

[Chacor]

257
WTPQ21 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0712 WIPHA (0712) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 19.9N 131.4E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 130NM
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 21.3N 128.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 180000UTC 22.8N 126.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 190000UTC 24.8N 123.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

[Typhoon Hunter]

Upgraded as per Chacor's post, Wipha. Looks like this could be a threat to Eastern China unless it recurves before hitting the coast. Given what Nari did a couple of days ago I'll be paying close attention to this storm!

[P.K.]

Forecast track image:

[Coredesat]

WTPQ21 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0712 WIPHA (0712)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160600UTC 20.2N 130.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 130NM
FORECAST
24HF 170600UTC 22.1N 127.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 180600UTC 23.9N 124.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 190600UTC 26.5N 122.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

[Typhoon Hunter]

JMA track shaping up for hit on mainland China and they're expecting it to develop quite rapidly over the next 24hrs from 40kts to 60kts!

I'm now going to be keeping very close eye on this for any potential intercept opportunity!

[apocalypt-flyer]

Well, other models seem to agree on a slight recurvature, moving it into the Yellow Sea, resulting in another South Korea problem.

[Typhoon Hunter]

S Korea certainly don't need another tropical system affecting them! Latest ECMWF model has this sitting just offshore Shanghai before shooting off to Korea and rapidly becoming ET.

Latest sat bulletin in my inbox has Wipha at T3.5 and developing rapidly:

21.0N 130.4E T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS WIPHA(13W)
.
PAST POSITIONS....20.2N 131.4E 15/2033Z IRNIGHT
19.9N 122.8E 15/0833Z VIS/IRDAY

REMARKS...DT=3.5 BASED ON .8 BANDING ON LOG10 SPIRAL. PT=3.5.
MET=3.5 FOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORM.

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 16/1600Z.

[Chacor]

Upgraded.

588
WTPQ21 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0712 WIPHA (0712) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 21.3N 130.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 23.2N 126.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 181200UTC 25.0N 123.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 191200UTC 27.9N 120.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

[Chacor]

Huge cyclonic envelope...

And a night-time VIS from earlier:

[Chacor]

Latest JTWC forecast is out. Track goes right into China, with a peak of 120kt near Taiwan.