TD ex-WIPHA (WPAC) - LANDFALL

Chacor · #41 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 8:14 am

969
WTPQ21 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0712 WIPHA (0712)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171200UTC 23.4N 125.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 220NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 181200UTC 25.9N 121.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 191200UTC 29.4N 119.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 201200UTC 33.9N 120.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

WindRunner · #42 Postby **WindRunner** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 8:43 am

RL3AO wrote:ESPN just showed a sat loop of Wipha! Of course the Women's World Cup is in China and Team USA plays in Shanghai tomorrow.

Haha . . . I'll bet that's better coverage than the Weather Channel gave it . . .

Trying to go for the ring of -80C cloud tops, and halfway there:

BTW, JTWC lists this at 120kts/933hPa as of 12z.

Chacor · #43 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 8:47 am

Chacor · #44 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 8:51 am

975
TPPN10 PGTW 171209

A. TYPHOON 13W (WIPHA)

B. 17/1130Z

C. 23.4N/9

D. 125.5E/3

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS (17/1130Z)

G. IR/EIR LLCC

05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. 15NM OW EYE SURROUNDED BY DG
ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJ YIELDS UNREP DT OF 7.0. UNREP MET
GIVES 5.5. PT GIVES 6.0. DBO PT.

DELEO

#45 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 8:53 am

No surprise that this will probably get minimal mention in western press. For those that are interested I happen to live in Shanghai but will be travelling to Wenzhou tomorrow which is further to the south, where landfall is expected.

Wipha has bombed and is a very powerful typhoon now!

Chacor · #46 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 8:56 am

That track as an extratropical-transitioning storm over North Korea can not be good, given the recent flooding there.

#47 Postby **Dave C** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:01 am

Just wanted to clarify that the typhoon is actually passing south of Miyaka Jima and heading towards islands to their west. I don't think they have as much of a population but will be a devestating hit. This thing is really cranking!

#48 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:02 am

The track is within 50 miles of two 10 million+ populated cities. Amazing.

Chacor · #49 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:04 am

Obs from an hour ago (13z/21JST):

Yonagunijma 995.8 hPa (29.41 in), 13 m/s (29 mph)
Iriomotejima 993.4 hPa (29.34 in), 8 m/s (18 mph)
Ishigakijima 991.4 hPa (29.28 in), 11 m/s (25 mph)
Miyakojima 990.1 hPa (29.24 in), 12 m/s (27 mph)

Chacor · #50 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:50 am

WDPN32 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W WARNING NR10//

RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.

2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 13W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, ALTHOUGH POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK. THE OUT-
FLOW CHANNEL TO THE EAST HAS LINKED TO THE TUTT CELL NEAR THE
MARIANAS ISLANDS. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG AS WELL.
B. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR TY 13W IS 120 KTS, BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 6.0 FROM PGTW AND RJTD. A 170829Z SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A 15 NM EYE. AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES PROVIDING EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND THE TUTT LOCATED OVER THE MARIANAS HAS
DEVELOPED AS A SECOND VENTING MECHANISM FOR TY 13W.

3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW DEPICTS AN RAPID EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AND RECURVATURE.
B. TY 13W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS WEST OF OKINAWA. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, BUT THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE
STORM NEARS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE MODEL FIELDS DO AGREE ON
A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER EASTERN CHINA BEGINNING AT TAU
24. TY 13W SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MIDLATITUDE TROUGH BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72, AS
THE STORM TRANSITS THE YELLOW SEA. THIS TRANSITION SHOULD BE VERY
RAPID, GIVEN THE VIGOROUS MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, WITH THE STORM BEING
FULLY EXTRATROPICAL SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL NEAR TAU 72.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
NNNN

Chacor · #51 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 10:56 am

WTPQ21 RJTD 171500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0712 WIPHA (0712)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171500UTC 23.6N 125.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 181500UTC 26.9N 121.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 191200UTC 29.4N 119.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 201200UTC 33.9N 120.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

100 kts now.

#52 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 10:57 am

Wow, this sure went through rapid deepening overnight! Those are often the worst kind of storms...

#53 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 10:58 am

2 100kt storms in the past 4? days in the same body of water.

Chacor · #54 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 11:05 am

It was 985 hPa 24 hours ago, so that's a 50 hPa drop in 24 hours.

#55 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 11:14 am

apocalypt-flyer · #56 Postby **apocalypt-flyer** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 11:37 am

This really might be the one typhoon that's going to test Shanghai. Having been to Shanghai, I'm sure the winds might not trouble the city/high buildings all that much but as the whole area is flat as a pancake this might be a MAJOR flooding event. Models are taking Wipha within 30/50 miles of Shanghai, so this is definately going to be interesting/really bad.

Not only has Wipha a good presentation and might strengthen even more but there's a considerable number of big rainbands. (A friend of mine is in Taipeh right now and apparently it's pounding down already and of there's Typhoon warning tomorrow even though Wipha will stay and still is quite a bit away from the coast).

chadtm80 · #57 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 1:09 pm

Typhoon Wipha http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?name=Content&pa=showpage&pid=148

#58 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 1:18 pm

Up to T6.5 at 1800.

Does this remind anyone of Saomai so far? That reached 105kts in this area and then made landfall at 100kts (935hPa) causing severe loss of life.

WindRunner · #59 Postby **WindRunner** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 1:56 pm

Impressive radar signature:

Obs last hour, 0300JST/18Z

Yonagunijima - 28kts/987.8hPa
Iriomotejima - 22kts/981.7hPa
Ishigakijima - 38kts, 975.6hPa - down 9hPa in the last two hours
Miyakojima - 32kts/984.8hPa

Chacor · #60 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 2:00 pm

Down to 930 hPa in latest advisory.

TD ex-WIPHA (WPAC) - LANDFALL

Re:

Re: Typhoon WIPHA (0712) E of Taiwan (WPAC)

Re: Typhoon WIPHA (0712) E of Taiwan (WPAC)

Re: Typhoon WIPHA (0712) E of Taiwan (WPAC)

Re: Typhoon WIPHA (0712) E of Taiwan (WPAC)

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