TD ex-WIPHA (WPAC) - LANDFALL

MiamiensisWx · #81 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:44 pm

It's a direct hit on Iriomote-jima. The eye is centered over the S half of the island.

Latest IR image

dwsqos2 · #82 Postby **dwsqos2** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 6:26 pm

2300Z Iriomotejima Observations

Winds: NE @ 37 m/s
Pressure: 929.1 hPa

WindRunner · #83 Postby **WindRunner** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 6:44 pm

dwsqos2 wrote:2300Z Iriomotejima Observations

Winds: NE @ 37 m/s
Pressure: 929.1 hPa

It definately makes you think that either that reading is surprisingly inaccurate or else there is a far lower central pressure in Wipha than we thought, like well into the 91-somethings . . .

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #84 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 6:47 pm

With the fact that the pressure is lower over the western Pacific and this system is likely close to a cat5 now. I would say it is very likely this has pressure near 915 or lower.

WindRunner · #85 Postby **WindRunner** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 6:49 pm

Radar from the time of that observation . . . that's probably a pretty good shot . . .

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #86 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 6:49 pm

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 SEP 2007 Time : 230000 UTC
Lat : 24:18:51 N Lon : 123:41:33 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 904.4mb/134.8kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -0.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +11.4C Cloud Region Temp : -75.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

MiamiensisWx · #87 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 6:53 pm

I hope people are situated inside concrete shelters. This is an amazing visible image.

Latest visible image (NRL)

An intensifying Wipha (and its eyewall) has struck Iriomote-jima.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #88 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 6:54 pm

Who ever is on that island is likely in the middle of a 135-140 knot Typhoon. I think it coulds strengthen even more to around 145-150 knots by 12 hours.

#89 Postby **Dave C** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 6:56 pm

Notice the winds shifted from nne to ne on their last 2 obs. Probably right on the edge of the eye. Once they enter eye pressure will level-off, I'm guessing low to mid 920s at the center. It's about a 25 mile wide eye so pressure shouldn't drop much when they go through the eye unlike a much tighter eye say 10 miles across.

wxmann_91 · #90 Postby **wxmann_91** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 7:02 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:I hope people are situated inside concrete shelters. This is an amazing visible image.

Latest visible image (NRL)

An intensifying Wipha (and its eyewall) has struck Miyakojima.

Wiki article on Miyakojima: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miyako-jima

Population is around 56,000.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #91 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 7:09 pm

Darn a borderline cat5 just hit a island with 56,000 people.

#92 Postby **Dave C** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 7:21 pm

I also thought it was directly landfalling Miyaka Jima but I found out that island is well NE of the island the eye just passed over. I'm not sure if the other islands are as populated but certainly were hit hard.Ill

try to find a map that names those islands and post it.

wxmann_91 · #93 Postby **wxmann_91** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 7:27 pm

Dave C wrote:I also thought it was directly landfalling Miyaka Jima but I found out that island is well NE of the island the eye just passed over. I'm not sure if the other islands are as populated but certainly were hit hard.Ill

try to find a map that names those islands and post it.

Oh, sorry. Thanks for the heads-up.

The island is not Miyakojima... it is Iriomote. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iriomote
Population is less than 2000.

Here are all the Ryukyu Islands. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryukyu

However, the island just to the northeast, has a population of 44,000.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #94 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 7:29 pm

Looks as bad as Felix and Dean.

cheezyWXguy · #95 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 7:35 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:

Looks as bad as Felix and Dean.

I still think at the point when felix was rapidly intensifying and just reached cat 5, its "donut" core was even more perfectly symmetrical

felix:

dwsqos2 · #96 Postby **dwsqos2** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 7:37 pm

0000Z Iriomotejima Observations...

Winds: SE @ 10 m/s
Pressure: 928.0 hPa

#97 Postby **Dave C** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 7:41 pm

The island that has the 44,000 population was in the north eyewall especially the southern portion of the island. Surely the worst place to be, at least Miyaka Jima was spared the worse. Can someone show how to convert the m/s to miles per hr. Thanks!

chadtm80 · #98 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 7:48 pm

Dave C wrote:The island that has the 44,000 population was in the north eyewall especially the southern portion of the island. Surely the worst place to be, at least Miyaka Jima was spared the worse. Can someone show how to convert the m/s to miles per hr. Thanks!

1 meter / second = 2.23693629 mph

dwsqos2 · #99 Postby **dwsqos2** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 8:20 pm

Ohara Observations...

0000Z...

Winds: SSW @ 39 m/s

0100Z...

Winds: SSW @ 28 m/s

0100Z Iriomotejima Observations...

Winds: SSE @ 30 m/s
Pressure: 955.5 hPa

Chacor · #100 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 8:42 pm

928 hPa from earlier tells me that the JMA should have raised the intensity further, which they didn't - still 930 hPa at 00z.

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