Tropical Depression INGRID: Discussion of Recon Data

[Lowpressure]

I think the real intensity at this moment is 40 kt unless new data comes in. I think the 49 kt is suspect, but the FL data seems to support 40.

Agreed 40 but not 49 as per previous post, flight level not close enough on both high obs.

I do not think it really matters though, as I think this pass will seal the deal for a TS.

[brunota2003]

Hmmm...Both the 40 and 49 knots fit in nicely with what QuikScat showed. 45 to 55 knot wind barbs on QuikScat earlier.

[Lowpressure]

Hmmm...Both the 40 and 49 knots fit in nicely with what QuikScat showed. 45 to 55 knot wind barbs on QuikScat earlier.

I agree, except these obs were too far removed from the LLC to coincide with the sat pass. This pass should confirn a nice TS in the 50mph range. IMO.

[Nimbus]

With a surface pressure drop to 999 there is a fairly tight gradient in a small area near the center. That is why she did so well fighting off the shear.

[HURAKAN]

Questions and comments from the obs thread:

I have a 29.....11....and 30 reports?

OK....anyone know what is happening? I seem to have two different flights on my end.

[DrewFL]

Right....now I have a 12 that will not decode?

[WindRunner]

Post it here . . . because I'm not seeing it

[DrewFL]

Too late....I received the 33.

[WindRunner]

If it won't decode, don't you have it on your clipboard or in the decoding file?

[DrewFL]

Here's # 13:



URNT15 KWBC 132202
NOAA3 0108A CYCLONE HDOB 13 20070913
215230 1220N 05006W 6430 03858 0104 +052 -011 248012 013 004 000 00
215300 1219N 05004W 6430 03859 0109 +048 +002 246013 013 008 000 00
215330 1219N 05001W 6428 03860 0109 +047 +019 246012 012 006 000 00
215400 1218N 04959W 6429 03860 0109 +047 +016 242013 013 005 000 00
215430 1218N 04957W 6431 03858 0108 +049 +004 250014 015 005 000 00
215500 1217N 04955W 6433 03854 0110 +048 -003 247015 016 006 000 00
215530 1217N 04952W 6432 03856 0101 +051 +031 255014 015 009 000 00
215600 1216N 04950W 6434 03854 0099 +052 +035 259014 014 007 000 00
215630 1216N 04948W 6432 03858 0093 +056 +029 263012 013 007 000 00
215700 1216N 04946W 6431 03859 0092 +057 +035 267012 013 010 000 00
215730 1216N 04943W 6432 03858 0094 +057 +024 248014 015 008 000 00
215800 1216N 04941W 6432 03858 0096 +056 +019 245014 016 007 000 00
215830 1216N 04939W 6433 03856 0104 +053 -014 238016 018 005 000 00
215900 1216N 04937W 6432 03857 0098 +057 -010 240016 017 005 000 00
215930 1216N 04935W 6433 03856 0104 +054 -028 239017 017 006 000 00
220000 1216N 04932W 6430 03860 0110 +050 -035 245018 019 006 000 00
220030 1216N 04930W 6430 03860 0112 +050 -047 243019 019 007 000 00
220100 1216N 04928W 6429 03861 0114 +048 -020 241018 019 006 000 00
220130 1216N 04925W 6429 03862 0114 +048 -018 247018 018 006 000 00
220200 1216N 04923W 6430 03861 0114 +047 -013 248018 019 007 000 00

[DrewFL]

Same plane #....different OBS #?

[WindRunner]

Odd . . . those obs are from around 6pm this evening . . . the same flight, but earlier obs. Maybe they got caught in a data jam somewhere along the way?

It's definately just earlier data from the current flight, though, as you can extrapolate the timing back. 02z-22z=4 hours. 4 hours worth of HDOBs coming in every 10 minutes would be 24 data sets, 13+24=37, the current HDOB set.

[brunota2003]

Look at the time on those obs...2200Z...Are those the missing obs sets from earlier, finally coming through?

[DrewFL]

Yeah! I see that! Same plane #....but it is whacking me out here!?

[JonathanBelles]

I think it is the missing obs, GE data is filling in.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Here's 12:

URNT15 KWBC 132152
NOAA3 0108A CYCLONE HDOB 12 20070913
214230 1229N 05052W 5485 05144 0257 -027 -048 002008 008 003 000 03
214300 1228N 05050W 5485 05143 0257 -027 -043 359008 009 002 000 03
214330 1228N 05047W 5485 05144 0257 -025 -038 005010 011 999 999 03
214400 1227N 05045W 5485 05144 0257 -026 -036 004012 012 002 000 03
214430 1226N 05042W 5486 05143 0257 -026 -034 358011 011 999 999 03
214500 1226N 05040W 5485 05143 0257 -024 -032 005012 012 003 000 03
214530 1225N 05038W 5486 05140 0257 -024 -030 002012 012 999 999 03
214600 1225N 05035W 5486 05141 0257 -023 -031 359011 012 999 999 03
214630 1225N 05033W 5487 05139 0256 -019 -032 356012 012 999 999 03
214700 1224N 05030W 5541 05058 0087 -017 -030 353012 012 999 999 03
214730 1224N 05028W 5632 04929 0095 -013 -021 336010 010 999 999 03
214800 1223N 05026W 5741 04776 0098 -005 -014 328010 010 999 999 03
214830 1223N 05024W 5850 04624 0100 +003 +000 319011 012 999 999 03
214900 1222N 05021W 5963 04471 0102 +012 +010 306011 012 999 999 03
214930 1222N 05019W 6072 04323 0098 +022 +018 302010 010 999 999 03
215000 1222N 05017W 6179 04182 0097 +031 +025 307011 011 002 000 03
215030 1221N 05015W 6287 04041 0095 +041 +030 294010 011 999 999 03
215100 1221N 05013W 6389 03908 0094 +052 +013 272010 010 999 999 03
215130 1220N 05010W 6419 03871 0094 +056 +006 264011 011 999 999 03
215200 1220N 05008W 6430 03857 0098 +055 -012 252011 012 003 000 03

The reason it did not decode properly was because that area in bold was left out of the message when it came across. I just added it in above.

These messages have come in late. You can get 11 through 14 here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/recon/2007/HDOB/NOAA/

Note the time they came across was recent, on the 14th Zulu time, compared to being surrounded by obs from yesterday, the 13th Zulu time.

[DrewFL]

Thanks Chris!

[DrewFL]

So, hello Ingrid!

[CrazyC83]

When is the next flight?

[DrewFL]

This POD will probably change in the morning....or not:


NOUS42 KNHC 131400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU 13 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-112

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08
FLIGHT ONE
A. 15/0000Z
B. NOAA3 0308A CYCLONE
C. 14/2000Z
D. 14.8N 50.8W
E. 14/2230Z TO 15/0300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 15/1200Z
B. NOAA2 0408A CYCLONE
C. 15/0800Z
D. 15.2N 52.0W
E. 15/1000Z TO 15/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: TWO MORE P-3 FLIGHTS FOR
16/0000Z AND 16/1200Z.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE 12-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING 16/1800Z FOR AIR FORCE.
4. REMARKS: TASKING FOR HURRICANE HUMBERTO FOR 13/1800Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 131030Z.