Invest 96E: Finally something in the E. Pacific

[Chacor]

And after a seemingly long wait since Henriette... we have 96E...

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 141422
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1422 UTC FRI SEP 14 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962007) 20070914 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070914 1200 070915 0000 070915 1200 070916 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.5N 107.3W 10.7N 108.3W 11.3N 109.4W 11.8N 110.7W
BAMD 10.5N 107.3W 10.6N 109.6W 10.4N 112.1W 10.2N 114.5W
BAMM 10.5N 107.3W 10.6N 109.0W 10.7N 110.9W 10.7N 112.8W
LBAR 10.5N 107.3W 10.6N 109.4W 11.1N 111.9W 11.9N 114.8W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070916 1200 070917 1200 070918 1200 070919 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 112.1W 14.3N 115.3W 16.5N 119.2W 18.7N 123.6W
BAMD 9.9N 116.8W 9.3N 121.1W 9.4N 125.2W 10.0N 128.2W
BAMM 10.7N 114.6W 10.9N 117.7W 11.6N 120.6W 13.1N 122.2W
LBAR 12.4N 117.7W 14.0N 123.7W 15.3N 129.4W 13.4N 133.4W
SHIP 46KTS 51KTS 59KTS 62KTS
DSHP 46KTS 51KTS 59KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 107.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 105.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 103.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[Chacor]

ABPZ20 KNHC 141024
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT FRI SEP 14 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CENTERED ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THE
ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF ACAPULCO REMAINS MINIMAL. ANY DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST OR WEST-
NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI

[CrazyC83]

Wow, the EPAC was sure in hibernation! This may become Ivo...

[RL3AO]

Wow. I was watching for development of the Pacific coast of South America before this basin!

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 141650
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT FRI SEP 14 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...ARE
CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
THE ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL...HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 142226
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT FRI SEP 14 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...ARE
CENTERED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
THE ACTIVITY IS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ANY DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT SAT SEP 15 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...
ARE CENTERED ABOUT 620 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
THE SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT...
HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD.

SHOWER ACTIVITY...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...REMAINS
DISORGANIZED. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT SAT SEP 15 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO REMAIN
DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD.

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS SLOWLY
MOVING WESTWARD. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

Gone from NRL:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... k_vis/dmsp