Ex-Ingrid north of Leewards

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I am opening up this thread because I do think Ingrid can regenerate in about 3 days or so and may not be a fish. Anybody that is behind me post here (or who thinks I am crazy so be it).

-She has a vigorous LLC at the lower levels. Shear cannot destroy that
-She keeps generating intense convection that is currently getting blown off to the east by the 30K of shear.
-Water temps are only going to get warmer
-It is September, and the env is bound to become favorable for her again.

I expect here to move off with the low-level flow at a generally WNW to sometimes NW movement and end up a little to the left of the NHC guidance currently as of this posting. I am then looking at models showing a huge 500MB High building in by Wed or so next week off the East Coast of the US which will turn here WNW and then due W or even WSW. At that time the ULL winds will be more favorable and she should start to blow up again.

Shear tendency:


Visible Loop showing strong, in tact LLC:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Buck]

They haven't issued the last advisory, so I don't think this thread is really necessary.

And even though I agree with you that it's not done yet... you definitely seemed to have changed your mind. Just a few days ago you thought this was dead before it was even named Ingrid.

[gatorcane]

I have changed my mind because looking at the large-scale synoptics today and just how great her LLC looks --- I just can't see her fizzling. So yes, I its a bold prediction but we'll see what happens.

[gatorcane]

I have a pro met backing me, at least to the point she could reintensify:

the UL is moving to the north and conditions may improve as soon as TOMORROW.

Ingrid needs to dissipate within the next 24 hours or else it will likely reintensify

[RL3AO]

Well well well. I agree with you about it making it through the shear, but I was expecting it to have to survive three days or more. And I also agree that the NHC is too far north and not far enough west.

[ROCK]

Well well well. I agree with you about it making it through the shear, but I was expecting it to have to survive three days or more. And I also agree that the NHC is too far north and not far enough west.

some of the globals open it up but you can still see the wave.....might hang on some.....

[LarryWx]

Gator,
My opinion, as far as any potential hit on the SE coast is concerned, is that Ingrid will never even get close even if it does regenerate. It is moving far too slowly and is so far away. Actually, I think that the NE US probably has a better chance of being hit, but even that chance is small. I'll also add that the wave east of Ingrid has very little shot at ever getting close to the lower 48 imho due to climo and the current sluggish movement of Ingrid.

But that doesn't mean I don't think there are any realistic potential threats to the SE US. I'll be watching very closely what that upper low does N of Hisp. (for SE coast) as well as the Caribbean mess (main initial direct hit threat to Gulf coast imho).

[Category 5]

hmmmmm

how about TD 8...looks like I smell BIG bust coming and a huge let down for this board.

Again all bark and no bite. Should have stuck to my guns and not even given it a chance....

Fall is coming quick this year....I'm not sure how much longer we will see any CV storms.

[Sanibel]

Looks like the weakness above it is so weak it will be too far out to sea to get grabbed by any High.

[gatorcane]

models have shifted left all day today (Saturday) and Ingrid is currently only about 400 miles ESE of much more favorable conditions. She continues to burst deep convection that is blowing off east of the LLC. Based on her current movement at 10mph, we can calculate that in appx 40 hours or 2 days or so, she will be approaching the beginning of a much favorable environment as she moves WNW to W just north of the Leewards. In fact the GFDL moves her west now for the next 3-5 days.

Shear has still not killed her and if she can hang on just a couple of more days she will have her chance.

[gatorcane]

She is looking better this morning -- and moving W to WNW still with no turn.

[Zardoz]

She is looking better this morning...

Great call on this so far, gator.

['CaneFreak]

oooooh sorry gator

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb-l.jpg

[Air Force Met]

Told ya the shear wasn't going to relax and that you were rooting for a loser...

It won't get better till mid week...and by then there won't be anything left.

[Coredesat]

Sorry, Gator:

[Frank2]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0828.shtml

it seems the season as a whole is winding down very quickly...

[Air Force Met]

Is there some where we should send flowers? Or perhaps a donation could be made in the deceased name to a charity of your choosing.

[CrazyC83]

Since Ingrid is no longer a tropical cyclone and that thread is to be locked, I decided to create this thread to continue discussions.

[CrazyC83]

I believe if this regenerates (not expected at this point), it remains Ingrid. Correct?

[x-y-no]

I believe if this regenerates (not expected at this point), it remains Ingrid. Correct?

No ... since it has opened up into a wave, any new surface circulation would be a different entity.