Ex-Ingrid north of Leewards

[Vortex]

I think this system bears watching..The upper low is beginning to fill and drop wsw. This may enhance an outflow channel..In the long-term too many variables to speculate on any land threat but the overall pattern would suggest near the bahamas in about 3-4 days..

[storms in NC]

NHC still showing little interest:

11:30 TWO:

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF INGRID AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM.

But you have to remember it have to recover from the shear first for a few days to get it's act together again. It will not happen over night. Just give it a few days and you will see it coming back. Will it be a TS again I really don't know at this time. But I would keep a eye on things. With 93L there may hurt it or help it.

[HURAKAN]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Remains of Ingrid
The remains of Tropical Storm Ingrid are still kicking up some heavy thunderstorm activity a few hundred miles north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. There is still a bit a spin evident on satellite loops and this morning's QuikSCAT pass. Wind shear has dropped from 30 knots yesterday to 20 knots today, and is expected to decline below 10 knots by Thursday. We will need to watch this area for development. Ingrid's remains are moving slowly northwest. Steering currents are weak in the area, and the system will probably not move much over the next five days.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200709

[Sanibel]

Ingrid re-firing 22N-65W

[BigA]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Remains of Ingrid
The remains of Tropical Storm Ingrid are still kicking up some heavy thunderstorm activity a few hundred miles north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. There is still a bit a spin evident on satellite loops and this morning's QuikSCAT pass. Wind shear has dropped from 30 knots yesterday to 20 knots today, and is expected to decline below 10 knots by Thursday. We will need to watch this area for development. Ingrid's remains are moving slowly northwest. Steering currents are weak in the area, and the system will probably not move much over the next five days.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200709

I have to agree that I'm not of the belief that upper level winds are unfavorable for development. Looking at the Wisconsin maps, Ex-Ingrid is in an area that has a shear tendency from yesterday to today of about -15kts, and shear over the system looks to be decreasing, as well as forecasted to continue to decrease http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif Notice how the yellow and yellow orange north of Puerto Rico fill in with dark orange and red, indicating low shear values.

[gatorcane]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Remains of Ingrid
The remains of Tropical Storm Ingrid are still kicking up some heavy thunderstorm activity a few hundred miles north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. There is still a bit a spin evident on satellite loops and this morning's QuikSCAT pass. Wind shear has dropped from 30 knots yesterday to 20 knots today, and is expected to decline below 10 knots by Thursday. We will need to watch this area for development. Ingrid's remains are moving slowly northwest. Steering currents are weak in the area, and the system will probably not move much over the next five days.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200709

I have to agree that I'm not of the belief that upper level winds are unfavorable for development. Looking at the Wisconsin maps, Ex-Ingrid is in an area that has a shear tendency from yesterday to today of about -15kts, and shear over the system looks to be decreasing, as well as forecasted to continue to decrease http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif Notice how the yellow and yellow orange north of Puerto Rico fill in with dark orange and red, indicating low shear values.

Agreed the shear is definitely decreasing. I am very perplexed why the NHC has just made another statement that conditions are not favorable but notice they are not pegging a time estimate on that (like the next couple of days). In fact there is a deep convective burst that just blew up right near the old "LLC" and is not getting blown off as quick to the east. That means shear is not as strong. This is important as this is the first time we have seen any convection that close to the LLC in 5 days.

I am still (and have been) bullish on development of this system.

[tolakram]

NHC still showing little interest:

11:30 TWO:

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF INGRID AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM.

It's got a floater back on it. The interest NHC shows or doesn't show is for public consumption.

As far as where Ingrid may or may not go, it would be nice if people could express their opinions without being rude. I enjoy reading everyones thoughts, but not when someone attacks another position.

[CrazyC83]

Last QuikSCAT suggests there might be a closed circulation near 20°N 64°W, although a very weak one:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas20.png

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas19.png

[MiamiensisWx]

The operational GFS indicates a weakness near the Southeast ahead of the deepening shortwave trough. The consistency in the GFS and Euro is supported by the influence of 93L and the GOM upper low. I don't see a United States landfall for ex-Ingrid.

~72 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_072l.gif

500 mbar pattern indicates a strong Canadian vort max eroding the Southeast ridging:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_072l.gif

[punkyg]

Is the center near the convecton.

[Sanibel]

Ingrid re-fired before 93L could wipe out the surface feature.

This would be something if 93L wasn't developing just to the west.

Red dot IR when sheared usually doesn't lie.

[MiamiensisWx]

The weakness pulls out at ~90 hours, but the building Canadian ridge indicates a path to fishland or a brief Carolinas/Northeast threat (not FL or Gulf of Mexico).

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_090l.gif

500 mbar pattern indicates a W Atlantic trough:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_090l.gif

Look at the latest shortwave imagery. I see a possible NNW movement (in the future beyond ~24 hours) and recurvature out to sea.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-ir2.html

[punkyg]

I want to know is there any model runs on ex ingrid?

[CalmBeforeStorm]

The weakness pulls out at ~90 hours, but the building Canadian ridge indicates a path to fishland or a brief Carolinas/Northeast threat (not FL or Gulf of Mexico).

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_090l.gif

500 mbar pattern indicates a W Atlantic trough:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_090l.gif

Look at the latest shortwave imagery. I see a possible NNW movement (in the future beyond ~24 hours) and recurvature out to sea.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-ir2.html

I honestly don't see this being anywhere near the weakness in 72 hours because of the very weak steering currents around it now. After 72 hours the GFS shows ridging into the SE U.S. building in.

[alienstorm]

The future movement of what ever is left of Ingrid is to early to tell. It is currently just about stationary and in looking at high visible loops can not even tell were the potential LLC may be or may want to form. TAFB is showing it at 21N and 64W while the NRL is showing it at 19N and 62W.

Let us wait and see what transpires in the next 24-48-72 hours before determining where it may want to go. If the global models are correct than a EC threat could be the case, and I highlight could be. Anywhere from Florida to Maine.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Past the floor wax phase, beginning the dessert topping phase now.

[Typhoon_Willie]

It is interesting that Ingrid is back on the floater though!

Click here.

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB cut an unplanned Big Dog video before his road trip. A little about GOMEX situation, mostly about re-iterating his ideas that things are slowly coming back to Ingrid's favor.

No real forecast as possible landfall or strength, yet, just reminding people he thinks Ingrid is coming back.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

TAFB is showing it at 21N and 64W while the NRL is showing it at 19N and 62W.

It is currently an interesting situation where NRL has independently determined that Ingrid was worth adding back to the site, despite no ATCF position updates here:
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al082007.invest
That is why you see the coordinates wrong, they are old on NRL.

---

Despite the NOAA site adding Ingrid back on a floater, that is just because it because it has become more interesting again. It probably should be described as the remnants of Ingrid for less confusion. The LLC is on the western side of the NW ball of convection.

Using this visible:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... m8vis.html

I would say around: 21.8N 64.3W
As of 16:15Z.

[tolakram]

Despite the NOAA site adding Ingrid back on a floater, that is just because it because it has become more interesting again. It probably should be described as the remnants of Ingrid for less confusion. The LLC is on the western side of the NW ball of convection.

Is that a fact, or your opinion? I have not witnessed anything being on a floater that isn't invest worthy. The only facts I have is that Ingrid is back on a floater and the NHC doesn't expect much development at the moment. If you know something else (as in factual information) I'd like to hear it so I can better understand what's going on here.